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Old January 6, 2004, 19:28   #151
el freako
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Here's my latest long-term forecasts of GDP (converted using PPPs):

Only the top 5 economies are listed, the number in brackets after the EU is the number of member states and all are listed as a % of the USA:

2000:
United States: 100%
European Union (15): 95%
China: 50%
Japan: 35%
India: 22%

2010:
European Union (25): 102%
United States: 100%
China: 61%
Japan: 32%
India: 29%

2020:
European Union (33): 105%
United States: 100%
China: 72%
India: 38%
Japan: 30%

2030:
European Union (35): 103%
United States: 100%
China: 82%
India: 49%
Japan: 29%

2040:
United States: 100%
European Union (35): 93%
China: 84%
India: 58%
Japan: 26%

2050:
United States: 100%
European Union (35): 87%
China: 87%
India: 67%
Japan: 24%


Let's see if this raises as big a laugh from DanS as davout's
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Old January 6, 2004, 19:55   #152
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Quote:
Originally posted by el freako
Here's my latest long-term forecasts of GDP (converted using PPPs):

Only the top 5 economies are listed, the number in brackets after the EU is the number of member states and all are listed as a % of the USA:
How about some error margins.
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Old January 6, 2004, 20:25   #153
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[SIZE=1] Originally posted by lord of the mark
with all due respect to our gallant British allies, they have sent about one division to the ME, with logistical support from the US, via friendly Kuwait. I assume China could do the same, if they chose. Indeed, by that standard Romania, Bulgaria, Spain, Dominican Republic, etc can all move at least some units around. I assume that was is meant by force projection is the ability to move ones own troops around without logistical support from allies, and where necessary via air drop or amphibious landing without assistance from any local state. UK and France may have that ability, but its not large scale, and not all that politically important.
The point is that the UK and France have proven that they can project their force, but in case of China we rely on speculations.

Quote:
Yup, China lost to NVA, who, at the time, were considered among the best infantry in the world. And who relied on the economic and logistic support of the SU, a superpower. The threat presented by China is a principle motive for VN's reconciliation with the US, yet one more example of Chinas importance in the Pacific sphere.
It was a very short campaign, so I think outside support hadnt played the big role there. The main reason for the Chinese failure were the bad preparations on their side. IIRC they did not even use airpower to support the attack.
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Old January 6, 2004, 20:34   #154
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Originally posted by C0ckney
oliver, don't take boris seriously, you know he's wrong, i know he's wrong, everybody else knows he's wrong, so there's no need to respond to the rubbish he writes
I've had some courses on European politics 1960-1990, and the picture I got from that is that France and Germany have more influence in the EU than Britain. I might be wrong, but I'm willing to hear you- if only you bother to say something.

France has an history of being *****y with the US since De Gaulle, and I see their influence in leading subtle anti-US (only to the extent that both are part of NATO) diplomacy as more important than Britain being US' dog.
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Old January 6, 2004, 20:42   #155
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Really, who cares if China can't project force- yet?

LOTM is right. And BTW, China today has nothing to do with China 1979. They now have the second military budget in the world, they are building spaceships and ICBMs, and everyone fears them. They are too strong to be challenged in their own strategic area- Asia, and within a 10-15 years timeframe they could get the power to project their force, if they felt like it is useful.

In fact, I suspect America is letting NKorea being nasty because they need SKorea and Japan. And not because Pyongyang is a real threat, mind you.

China is definitely the #2 world power. The EU is a paper tiger. China is a baby tiger.
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Old January 6, 2004, 20:57   #156
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LOTM is right. And BTW, China today has nothing to do with China 1979. They now have the second military budget in the world, they are building spaceships and ICBMs, and everyone fears them.
Oh yes, in case of the first SARS crisis they proved their ability to react quickly very well...Everyone fears that....
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Old January 6, 2004, 22:26   #157
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Quote:
Originally posted by KrazyHorse


Huh?

a) California is a lot lower than 6. Closer to 10 (its economy is a similar size to that of Canada)
b) It doesn't count as #6 because it's not a separate country.

The world's largest economies (in order, and guessing)

1) USA
2) China
3) Japan
4) India
5) Germany
6) France
7) Russia
8) Italy
9) Canada (?) Korea (?)
You might wish is was lower, however you should watch the news. We are number 6 in the world, so get over it.
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Old January 6, 2004, 22:43   #158
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ted Striker
GROSS PRODUCT IN YEAR 2001
(billions of dollars)
1 United States $10,171
2 Japan 4,245
3 Germany 1,874
4 United Kingdom 1,406
CALIFORNIA 1,392
5 France 1,303
6 China 1,159
7 Italy 1,091
8 Canada 677
9 Mexico 618
10 Spain 577

http://commerce.ca.gov/ttca/pdfs/det...SP_Ranking.pdf

my work here is done
I was wrong, We are number 5 instead. California can kick some a$$.
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Old January 6, 2004, 22:49   #159
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Quote:
Originally posted by Oncle Boris


Well, there may be a mistake.

Everyone knows that France GDP is ~24,000$ per capita.
US GDP is ~$30,000$ per capita.

France pop: ~60 millions
California pop: ~ 30 millions.

I'm quite sure there must be a mistake somewhere, and not in my estimates.
35 last census, not counting the illegal. The state said stand up and be counted, and we will not sent you home. The illegal stood up and said F--K Y-U find us first.
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Old January 6, 2004, 23:09   #160
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Greater Los Angeles ranked at 10th biggest economy in the world.

The County of Los Angeles by itself rated at 15th, bigger than Taiwan and Russia, but smaller than Australia



http://www.e-edge.org/special/GDP.htm
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Old January 6, 2004, 23:11   #161
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confusing.
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Old January 6, 2004, 23:28   #162
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Quote:
Originally posted by Ted Striker
Greater Los Angeles ranked at 10th biggest economy in the world.

The County of Los Angeles by itself rated at 15th, bigger than Taiwan and Russia, but smaller than Australia
No longer so. Notice that Russian GDP grows by 40% a year, as it follows from the table. Thus, in 2003, Russia should have left the County of Los Angeles far behind.
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Old January 7, 2004, 00:34   #163
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China has no ability to project power as of yet, so UK ranks above them for now.
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Old January 7, 2004, 04:57   #164
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Quote:
Originally posted by Joseph
I was wrong, We are number 5 instead. California can kick some a$$.
Not really, first off the data is 2 years old and heavily skewed by the fact that it is converted using exchange rates (and the dollar was massively overvalued in 2001).

Here is the data for 2003 (estimates):

1st United States: $10,980bn
2nd Japan: $4,320bn
3rd Germany: $2,410bn
4th Britian: $1,800bn
5th France: $1,750bn
6th China: $1,570bn*
7th California: $1,480bn
8th Italy: $1,470bn
9th Canada: $860bn
10th Spain: $830bn

*including Hong Kong
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Old January 7, 2004, 05:43   #165
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1. USA
2-10. Friends of the USA

Anyone who is not on our "friends list" is not a world power.
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Old January 7, 2004, 06:03   #166
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1. Japan
2. USA (with Israel in fact unofficial part of USA)
3. Muslim union
4. France
5. UK
6. Germany
7. Canada
8. Italy
9. China
10. India

Notes:
a. Japan is more stable economicaly and 1st place in science.
b. I think that Russian economical stats are fake.
c. Muslim countries are actually one union.
d. Israel actually makes what USA wants. Also USA would hardly withstand terrorism without Israel.
e. If i were asked about best "performers" of 2003 i would choose Japan Poland and France.
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Old January 7, 2004, 08:21   #167
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Quote:
Originally posted by Oncle Boris


I've had some courses on European politics 1960-1990, and the picture I got from that is that France and Germany have more influence in the EU than Britain. I might be wrong, but I'm willing to hear you- if only you bother to say something.

France has an history of being *****y with the US since De Gaulle, and I see their influence in leading subtle anti-US (only to the extent that both are part of NATO) diplomacy as more important than Britain being US' dog.
we all know france and germany run the EU, that's never been in question, but why does that matter? the EU is not (and (hopefully) will never be) a state. in the world at large britain has more influence than france, and certainly far more than china. this is by virtue of the fact we used to own rather a lot of it

france might be trying to frustrate US policy but the cold war is over. there are no longer two blocks opposing each other, the world is led by america, more or less and however much you may dislike this, it's simply the way it is.

you assertion that the UK is 'dead' is just idiotic.
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Old January 7, 2004, 10:12   #168
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Quote:
Originally posted by muxec
1. Japan
2. USA (with Israel in fact unofficial part of USA)
3. Muslim union
4. France
5. UK
6. Germany
7. Canada
8. Italy
9. China
10. India

Notes:
a. Japan is more stable economicaly and 1st place in science.
b. I think that Russian economical stats are fake.
c. Muslim countries are actually one union.
d. Israel actually makes what USA wants. Also USA would hardly withstand terrorism without Israel.
e. If i were asked about best "performers" of 2003 i would choose Japan Poland and France.
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Old January 7, 2004, 10:15   #169
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Originally posted by BeBro


Oh yes, in case of the first SARS crisis they proved their ability to react quickly very well...Everyone fears that....

their authoritarian state clearly makes it harder for them to respond to domestic emergencies. Not clear that this indicates lesser power. France also had some problems dealing with domestic emergencies last year, ISTR
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Old January 7, 2004, 10:18   #170
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Originally posted by BeBro



It was a very short campaign, so I think outside support hadnt played the big role there. The main reason for the Chinese failure were the bad preparations on their side. IIRC they did not even use airpower to support the attack.
outside support didnt matter in terms of resupply. It presumably did impact the level of armament, state of preparedness of the NVA. And does incompetent performace by the PLA in 1979 necessarily indicate similar performance today? US armed forces had some real problems in 1979-1980, ISTR
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Old January 7, 2004, 11:32   #171
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Quote:
Originally posted by C0ckney


we all know france and germany run the EU, that's never been in question, but why does that matter? the EU is not (and (hopefully) will never be) a state. in the world at large britain has more influence than france, and certainly far more than china. this is by virtue of the fact we used to own rather a lot of it

france might be trying to frustrate US policy but the cold war is over. there are no longer two blocks opposing each other, the world is led by america, more or less and however much you may dislike this, it's simply the way it is.

you assertion that the UK is 'dead' is just idiotic.
Most of Europe is dead- I did not only mean UK, but France too. Their relative power can only decline. When Asia truly rises, in 50-100 years, most countries in Europe will be insignificant, minor powers.
I don't think the UK has more influence in its former colonies than France has- mainly because UK's influence is limited to the retarded Africa, as is France's. UK's true jewels- Canada and India- don't care much about them anymore. But since the question was about power, which includes influence, my point was that France has more experience and more successes in bringing other countries with them against the US block in diplomatic talks. The UK's ability to discuss with Germany or Russia, for now at least, is limited, because of their 'duty' towards America.
Say what you wish, but I don't believe my reasoning to be idiotic.
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Old January 7, 2004, 11:35   #172
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What have you been smoking Muxec?

First off Japan has a smaller Population, Economy and Military then the US. Second off they have a major regional Rival (China) and much of the region still hates them for the atrocites comited in WWII. And it even lacks a Nuclear arsenal (as far as we know). If by stable you ment stagnent then Yes your correct. And what do you base them being ahead tecnologicaly on, simply the fact they make/use more consumer electronics?

As for Isreal, its the largest Drain on US influence at the monement, both Financialy and Diplomaticaly the US gives Isreal Huge support and recives basicaly nothing in return. If you want to consider the US to be a "partner" with anyone it would have to be with Canada and to a lesser extenet Mexico and several Central American Countries. These are both Hugly more helpfull to the US economy and world influence then Isreal is. I cant even imagine what your statment on surviving Terroism means.

Muslim Countries are not united as should be obvious, the consept of Pan-Arabism has waned quite a bit from the high of the 80's but even then it was never an atempt to fuse all thouse states into something new, rather a movment to act coperativly. Far less ambitious then the changes taking place in the EU. The only solidarity that Arab Countries display is in intermitent OPEC gouging and Condeming Isreal all the time, besides that their at each others throats all the time. They have no power Projection Capability and are light years behind tecnologicaly and culturaly. Only Iran has real Potential due to their Higly westernized Culture (Thanky you Ataturk!). Only their hated theocratic goverment holds them back but I predict this will in the next 2 Decades and their will be a Massive realignment to a VERY pro-US goverment, it will be a if the Sha had never been deposed.

Russian Economic statistics though perhaps not the most acurate in the world are still correct in showing that their on a rebound after suffering massive economic Implosions assosiated with the Fall of the Soviet Union and various scandels and market panics that followed. Their intilectual Capital is likly whats going to bail them out if they can use it before it drains away. Russias shrinking population will never be large enough to even Rival the rest of Europe let alone the US. Only their Nuclear arsenal and influence with other Slavic peoples of Eastern Europe (and anyone who still thinks the USSR was a good thing) keep them on the Global Power chart. In reality their far worse off then say Brazil or Australia.
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Old January 7, 2004, 11:40   #173
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Impaler, I doubt Iran will ever be pro-US, even if the theocracy is overthrown. They might as well align in China's orbit. I think right now they are selling most of their oil to China anyway.
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Old January 7, 2004, 12:09   #174
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and Japan is irrelevant politically
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Old January 7, 2004, 12:10   #175
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Quote:
Originally posted by Impaler[WrG]
Muslim Countries are not united as should be obvious, the consept of Pan-Arabism has waned quite a bit from the high of the 80's but even then it was never an atempt to fuse all thouse states into something new, rather a movment to act coperativly. Far less ambitious then the changes taking place in the EU. The only solidarity that Arab Countries display is in intermitent OPEC gouging and Condeming Isreal all the time, besides that their at each others throats all the time. They have no power Projection Capability and are light years behind tecnologicaly and culturaly. Only Iran has real Potential due to their Higly westernized Culture (Thanky you Ataturk!). Only their hated theocratic goverment holds them back but I predict this will in the next 2 Decades and their will be a Massive realignment to a VERY pro-US goverment, it will be a if the Sha had never been deposed.
I missed something, but wasn't Mustafa Kemal Ataturk a Turk and the creator of modern Turkey?

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Old January 7, 2004, 12:10   #176
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Originally posted by Impaler[WrG]
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What have you been smoking Muxec?

First off Japan has a smaller Population, Economy and Military then the US. Second off they have a major regional Rival (China) and much of the region still hates them for the atrocites comited in WWII. And it even lacks a Nuclear arsenal (as far as we know). If by stable you ment stagnent then Yes your correct. And what do you base them being ahead tecnologicaly on, simply the fact they make/use more consumer electronics?

As for Isreal, its the largest Drain on US influence at the monement, both Financialy and Diplomaticaly the US gives Isreal Huge support and recives basicaly nothing in return. If you want to consider the US to be a "partner" with anyone it would have to be with Canada and to a lesser extenet Mexico and several Central American Countries. These are both Hugly more helpfull to the US economy and world influence then Isreal is. I cant even imagine what your statment on surviving Terroism means.

Muslim Countries are not united as should be obvious, the consept of Pan-Arabism has waned quite a bit from the high of the 80's but even then it was never an atempt to fuse all thouse states into something new, rather a movment to act coperativly. Far less ambitious then the changes taking place in the EU. The only solidarity that Arab Countries display is in intermitent OPEC gouging and Condeming Isreal all the time, besides that their at each others throats all the time. They have no power Projection Capability and are light years behind tecnologicaly and culturaly. Only Iran has real Potential due to their Higly westernized Culture (Thanky you Ataturk!). Only their hated theocratic goverment holds them back but I predict this will in the next 2 Decades and their will be a Massive realignment to a VERY pro-US goverment, it will be a if the Sha had never been deposed.

Russian Economic statistics though perhaps not the most acurate in the world are still correct in showing that their on a rebound after suffering massive economic Implosions assosiated with the Fall of the Soviet Union and various scandels and market panics that followed. Their intilectual Capital is likly whats going to bail them out if they can use it before it drains away. Russias shrinking population will never be large enough to even Rival the rest of Europe let alone the US. Only their Nuclear arsenal and influence with other Slavic peoples of Eastern Europe (and anyone who still thinks the USSR was a good thing) keep them on the Global Power chart. In reality their far worse off then say Brazil or Australia.
I agree with you that muxecs statement about japan was particularly silly, and the muslim world is not a united power, my disagreement with him about Israel is that it is a seperate power and does not act as extension of the US. I dont want this threadjacked into another discussion of Israel, but lets point out that US aid to Israel is relatively small (regular annual aid is $3 billion, and has been stable for over 20 years) and is mainly spent on US produced armaments. Diplomatically is at least arguable - varies with Israeli admin, the state of the peace process, etc. Lets not be so short sighted as to consider the situation of the last 3 years the entire relationship. And there are many offsetting factors, which i will not go into to keep this on topic.
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Old January 7, 2004, 12:11   #177
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so how good is Germany nowadays?
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Old January 7, 2004, 12:12   #178
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Germany is Ok, except for crap places like Potsdam.
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Old January 7, 2004, 12:13   #179
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Originally posted by Impaler[WrG]
. Only Iran has real Potential due to their Higly westernized Culture (Thanky you Ataturk!).
what have YOU been smoking impaler?? Ataturk was a Turk, and Iran/Persia hasnt been ruled by Turkey in at least the last 500 years. Certainly not in the time of Ataturk or since. Maybe the late Shah was influenced by Ataturk, but thats debatable.
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Old January 7, 2004, 12:15   #180
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Thank you Atagerm.
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