I don't really understand about Dean.

[Ramo]

Are you kidding? Shrub made verbal gaffes all the time, particularly during his first campaign. In contrast, Gore was very disciplined.

An even better example might be Reagan.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Upset this isn't your troll thread Tassy?

[Ben Kenobi]

I think that there is a fair amount of substantial criticism in this thread. I think a lot of these critiques were made about Bush 1st time around, too.

But Dean does not have the benefit of running against Al Gore.

[Shi Huangdi]

Moving back to the center would be difficult given the positions Dean has already taken. Repealing all of Bush's tax cuts, opposing pre-emptive war, increasing government regulation of businesses, etc. Combined with Dean being from Vermont, as well as his record on social liberalism, it will be all too easy for Karl Rove to paint Dean as a left wing New England crackpot.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Shi exactly

[Imran Siddiqui]

Shrub is a very disciplined politician. He's on message all the time.

Exactly. This was one of the criticisms of his campaign: it was always 'on message' and didn't want to talk about ANYTHING else during that week or so. It was an extremely disciplined campaign.

Dean has to show the same thing, but he seems all over the place lately.

[Alexander's Horse]

Of course most of the people commenting here are the kind of people whose vote Dean isn't interested in.

If he annoys you he must be doing something right.

[Timexwatch]

Horse, et. al.:

Except the kind of people who Dean is targeting haven't historically been the group that carries a candidate to victory. The elderly, rich, white and educated vote in higher numbers than everyone else. Concentrating on the young and somewhat educated may help him in the primaries, but won't put him over the top.

A total of 100,000,000 million people over 18 have some sort of college experience according to the 2000 Census. That's about half of the voting electorate.

Let's assume that Dean is attempting to target the 18-34 set. According to the 2000 stats from the Census Bureau, if you examine the statistics simply by age, the turnout rate isn't promising. The average for the 18-34s is about 38% turnout with turnout peaking at age 34 with 49.5% voting. Men average 35% turnout, while women average 41% turnout.

Looking at the 2000 stats again and adjusting for education , the 18-24 Males average 40% to 60% turnout once they obtain at least some college education. Female turnout is slightly worse, peaking at almost 60% for bachelor's degree holders. As a whole, the 18-24s average 43% to 53% turnout if one holds some degree of college education.
The 25 to 44 year olds with some college education turned out between 55% and 65% of the time.

The strategy of mobilizing the youth is one fraught with perils if the stats from the most recent election is to be believed. The under-30 crowd has been a poor performer in terms of getting to the ballot box for the last Presidental election. Dean would have a statistically better chance of tying up the national vote if he focused more on the over 35 set. As much as Meetups can excite the young, they aren't likely to turn up at the polls.

[Tripledoc]

Originally posted by Lancer
I don't really understand about Dean.

You don't have to understand anything. You just have to follow his orders.

[MrFun]

Originally posted by Timexwatch
Horse, et. al.:

Except the kind of people who Dean is targeting haven't historically been the group that carries a candidate to victory. The elderly, rich, white and educated vote in higher numbers than everyone else. Concentrating on the young and somewhat educated may help him in the primaries, but won't put him over the top.

A total of 100,000,000 million people over 18 have some sort of college experience according to the 2000 Census. That's about half of the voting electorate.

Let's assume that Dean is attempting to target the 18-34 set. According to the 2000 stats from the Census Bureau, if you examine the statistics simply by age, the turnout rate isn't promising. The average for the 18-34s is about 38% turnout with turnout peaking at age 34 with 49.5% voting. Men average 35% turnout, while women average 41% turnout.

Looking at the 2000 stats again and adjusting for education , the 18-24 Males average 40% to 60% turnout once they obtain at least some college education. Female turnout is slightly worse, peaking at almost 60% for bachelor's degree holders. As a whole, the 18-24s average 43% to 53% turnout if one holds some degree of college education.
The 25 to 44 year olds with some college education turned out between 55% and 65% of the time.

The strategy of mobilizing the youth is one fraught with perils if the stats from the most recent election is to be believed. The under-30 crowd has been a poor performer in terms of getting to the ballot box for the last Presidental election. Dean would have a statistically better chance of tying up the national vote if he focused more on the over 35 set. As much as Meetups can excite the young, they aren't likely to turn up at the polls.

Haven't you heard of the voting mobilization of younger adults called, "Rock the Vote?"

[Drake Tungsten]

Yeah, "Rock the Vote" has done a hell of a lot in the period it's been around...

[MrFun]

I never said it was highly successful -- but I thought Timex may have forgotten about that attempt to mobilize younger adults to vote.

[Sava]

I think Che is right on in his assessment of Dean... upon further review of his voting record and his policy plans, he's not much of a liberal. In fact, he scores very close to Repukes on the political spectrum... so do most of they other candidates. Maybe this will shed some light on why I don't like Dem's that much more than I like Repukes.

BTW, Shi... you don't have to be a "lefty" to realize Bush's tax cuts were wrong... ineffective, and a complete giveaway to the rich. Plus, many conservatives... TRUE conservatives opposed the war in Iraq.

And re-regulating business... well, if wanting to stop corporations from exploiting America, dodging taxes, and increasing media cartels' powers is "liberal" then I guess Dean is liberal. Personally, I don't think someone is liberal or conservative if they want to loosen corporations' strangle hold on America.

Bush is a corporatist, not a conservative. Why do peopple think Bush is a conservative? I'll list some conservative ideals...

limited government power... IMO, the biggest display of government power is banning consensual sexual practices between two people (sodomy laws) or meddling in religious and social affairs (like marriage)

decreased wasteful spending... I think this one is obvious

"conservative" use of America's military... attacking a country that was no threat to the US, had not commited an act of war against us, and using "UN resolutions" as an excuse while saying the UN is irrelevant sounds radical to me... certainly not conservative.

Here is the politicalcompass of the 2004 primary candidates... based on VOTING RECORDS and policy plans... not propaganda speeches. People may think Dean is left because the media tells them so... well, those morons are wrong.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
Moving back to the center would be difficult given the positions Dean has already taken. Repealing all of Bush's tax cuts, opposing pre-emptive war, increasing government regulation of businesses, etc. Combined with Dean being from Vermont, as well as his record on social liberalism, it will be all too easy for Karl Rove to paint Dean as a left wing New England crackpot.

Which of course is a gross mischaracterization of vermont, but of course, gross mischarecterizations of states and cities are always allowed. Dean has a 100% rating from the NRA..for god's sake, 100%!

Dean is "liberal" in 3 areas: Social issues such as gay marriage and abortion. The gay marriage stance is not popular, but most of his social stands are those that appeal most to democracts and centrists.

The War on Iraq: He is not the most leftwing here: Kucinich and Sharpton are. Dean has failed to put together a plan for the future of iraq, and this is the one thing his people must fix- but he is correct in his ciritcism of how Bush went about this, and things in Iraq are as dicey as ever, so this is not an immidtate losing Issue. The Dem so many say is best able to beat Bush, Clark, was also anti-war.

Taxes: he is one of only 2 (gephardt being the other) who realizes that the whole of the BUsh tax cut scheme must be undone. The fact is the middle classes are not seeing significant benefit form this becuase as the Feds give local areas more than take away, as do increases in Health and education costs.


The media is out to do a number on him for some reason, but I find it hard to believe that a guy who has raised 40 million mostly from small contributors is "unelectable". As Kucinich said in the Iowa debate: "I am electable if you vote for me".

The one problem all democratcs have are 2 fold: the Republicans will play the GOD card incessently and even Lieberman would be painted as some wide eyed hippi anti-God type, and Bush will have over 100% more money to spend on endless adds, both positive for him, and negative ones.

[chequita guevara]

Dean realizes something that most of the rest of the Dem's do not. In order to build a center-left alliance, you actually have to include the left. The rest of the "serious" candidates want to continue the 1990's strategy of concentrating soley on the center and telling the left they've got no where else to go. Well, as they showed in 2000, the left is perfectly willing to suffer short-term pain for long-term gain, and will continue to vote against being ignored.

What I'm curious about is whether the "Dean movement" is focused soley on the Presidency or whether they intend to strat challenging Congressional Dem's to get some more fire breathers in Congress.

[Shi Huangdi]

"BTW, Shi... you don't have to be a "lefty" to realize Bush's tax cuts were wrong... ineffective, and a complete giveaway to the rich. "

While the leftist punditry is convinced that using taxcuts to put more money in the hands of the populace spells economic disaster, economists aren't as convinced.

"Plus, many conservatives... TRUE conservatives opposed the war in Iraq."

That's great, but polls have consistenly shown very high approval for the war even as casulties have increased, and Dean's fiery rhetoric on this isn't going to help him.

The key here is the July 2004 Iraqi elections. If those can go reasonably well, then it will be apparent that Iraq is on its way in terms of transition to them, it will be very good for Bush.

"Which of course is a gross mischaracterization of vermont, but of course, gross mischarecterizations of states and cities are always allowed. "

What do you mean!? Vermont is a state that has elected a self described socialist as it's sole representative in Congress.


"Dean has a 100% rating from the NRA..for god's sake, 100%!"

Media hype about Dean being pro-gun aside, Dean doesn't want to shield gun manufactures from liability over damage caused by their products(meaning someone could sue a gun manufacturer if a family member was shot). The NRA will inform it's members about the possibility of this "backdoor" way of banning guns(If they become unprofitable to make because of lawsuits). Combined with Dean's other positions:

http://beta.deanforamerica.com/site/...ensiblegunlaws

I think the NRA will still be able to deliver its voters to Bush in 2004.

"Social issues such as gay marriage and abortion. The gay marriage stance is not popular, but most of his social stands are those that appeal most to democracts and centrists."

Partial Birth Abortion too, Dean also favors that. Those two issues should allow Rove to paint Dean as the standard bearer of the far left.

"The War on Iraq: He is not the most leftwing here: Kucinich and Sharpton are. Dean has failed to put together a plan for the future of iraq, and this is the one thing his people must fix- but he is correct in his ciritcism of how Bush went about this, and things in Iraq are as dicey as ever, so this is not an immidtate losing Issue. The Dem so many say is best able to beat Bush, Clark, was also anti-war."

Even majorities of Democrats have said they prefer a candidate who supported the war initally but was critical of how it was handled. Unless things deteriorate badly in Iraq, and I think things will get better, this issue won't help Dean.

"Taxes: "

You may not like the Bush Tax Cuts, but Mondale's 1984 campaign is a good illustration of how popular proposing tax hikes typically.

"The media is out to do a number on him for some reason, but I find it hard to believe that a guy who has raised 40 million mostly from small contributors is "unelectable". "

Comeon, Gepap, you're a political scientist. You should know that the amount of monery raised from Partisans is more of an indicator of how far from the center a mainstream candidate is then anything else.

"The one problem all democratcs have are 2 fold: the Republicans will play the GOD card incessently and even Lieberman would be painted as some wide eyed hippi anti-God type,"

Voters aren't as dumb as you think. A Democratic candidate can talk about religion as much as he wants, but as long as he/she holds to a solid social liberal line he/she won't make any inroads among most religious voters.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
You may not like the Bush Tax Cuts, but Mondale's 1984 campaign is a good illustration of how popular proposing tax hikes typically.

Yes, but most people polled have said they'd rather forgo the tax cuts than massively increase he Federal deficit, especially when in six years, the Boomers will start retiring and collecting SS. On top of that, for most people, the tax cuts aren't very substatial, as the alternative minimum tax will kick in on us and take back most of what we thought we'd be getting.

BYW, Shi, about half of the people who believe in some sort of religion in this country are left-leaning. Just about everyone in this country is religious. It's like saying only people who breathe air are gonna bother to vote. Us non-religious types are barely 5% of the populations, and are also split fairly evenly.

[Boris Godunov]

Again, what is this stance on gay marriage Dean has that is supposedly unpopular?

[Boris Godunov]

The mischaracterization of Dean as a far-leftie is because the right wing views grass roots democracy that eschews big corporate cronyism in favor of actual voter support as being some leftist/socialist ideal. The Republican establishment tarred McCain with the same false claim in 2000, claiming he was too liberal. Anyone who bothered to look at McCain's record would see he is about as staunch a conservative you could ask for.

To Republicans, I guess actual democracy instead of corporate oligarchy is just another radical liberal ideal...

[DinoDoc]

This seems relevent to the topic being discussed.

Democrats lack self-confidence

By DAVID BROOKS - The New York Times - 12/26/03

NEW YORK — In 2000, John McCain led an insurgent campaign against the Republican establishment. Say what you will about GOP elites, they do not lack self-confidence. When McCain hit them, they hit back, viciously. In South Carolina, they insulted McCain's honor, caused him to lose his equilibrium and left him battered and defeated.

An election later, the Democratic establishment faces its own insurgency campaign. Howard Dean has launched a comprehensive assault on his party's leaders.

So how are the Democratic leaders defending themselves? They are responding as any establishment responds when it has lost confidence in itself, when it has lost faith in its ideas, when it has lost the will to fight.

The first crucial moment in this campaign came in early August. Dean was beginning his surge. He was on the covers of the newsweeklies. Instead of trying to confront him when he was still beatable, the rival Democratic candidates suffered what can only be described as a fit of moral panic. Some of those who supported the war in Iraq pretended they opposed it. Months went by and nobody offered more than passing jabs at Dean's integrity and ideas.

Today, the Dean campaign is immeasurably stronger, but faces its second test. Bush's recent successes have halted Dean's momentum. If there is a moment to rethink Dean's campaign, this is it.

And yet the mood within the Democratic establishment is dour and fatalistic. While most Washington Democrats expect that Dean will get trounced in the fall, they are not trying to head off the catastrophe. Some fear a party feud more than a defeat.

The closest thing to a Dean resistance movement is emerging inside the Lieberman campaign. Joe Lieberman is trying to rally the forces of Clintonism. The Clinton Democrats won, Lieberman argues, because they supported free trade and middle-class tax cuts. They were vocal on values, strong on defense. They were hopeful, not angry, and transcended partisanship rather than reinforced it.

Last Friday, I followed Lieberman to three campaign events in Delaware. ‘‘I'm fighting for the heart and soul of my party,'' he declared. But he showed no rage, little sense of urgency. On the stump he seems too decent and admirable a guy to take on Howard Dean, the Huey Long of the iPod set.

Last week, I asked Lieberman if he would pick a fight with Dean on values. I asked him if he had formed any conclusions about Dean's temperament. I asked him if he would run commercials pointing out that if Dean had his way, Saddam would still be in power, filling mass graves. No, no, no.

Presidential campaigns climb a hill of righteous indignation. By the time they squared off in South Carolina in 2000, the Bush and McCain campaigns loathed each other. But in the Democratic race, the Dean campaign has all the loathing and none of the passion.

It is a loathing not only for Bush but also for the Democratic establishment, and contempt for its weakness. Nothing has so vindicated the Dean campaign as the Democratic establishment's pallid response to it.

[Arrian]

This campaign is going to come down to this:

Option A: I like Bush
Option B: I hate Bush

The Democratic candidate is almost irrelevant.

-Arrian

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov
The mischaracterization of Dean as a far-leftie ...

I don't know. Spitting on the Clinton statement that the "era of Big Government" is over doesn't really sound conservative or that centrist to me. We also have him proposing raising taxes from the outset. That doesn't seem wise when trying to get people to vote for you.

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Originally posted by Arrian
This campaign is going to come down to this:

Option A: I like Bush
Option B: I hate Bush

The Democratic candidate is almost irrelevant.

-Arrian

Actually if the repubs are successful in advertising it will be:

Option A: I hate Dean
Option B: I hate Bush


I predict this will be one of the dirtiest campaigns to date from both sides given the absolute hatred of Bush.

[GePap]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
I don't know. Spitting on the Clinton statement that the "era of Big Government" is over doesn't really sound conservative or that centrist to me. We also have him proposing raising taxes from the outset. That doesn't seem wise when trying to get people to vote for you.

Well, Bush has more that dmeolished the idea of the end of big government- why should Dean suffer for something this admin. does?

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by GePap
Well, Bush has more that dmeolished the idea of the end of big government- why should Dean suffer for something this admin. does?

You didn't really answer the point GePap.

[GePap]

Mr. Brooks is not a particular good source to know the dmeocratic party.

Lieberman is a great example of the warped logic of those attacking Dean- they think the candidate closest to Bush is the one who will beat Bush..but if a guy is close enough to Bush on most issues, why would non-democrats vote for such a guy and not just stick with Bush?

The only things that make Lieberman significantly different policywise are the environment and taxes for the very wealthy. The environment does not win elections sadly, and arguing against only a bit of the Bush tax cut has little power, since you are validating most of it.

[GePap]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
You didn't really answer the point GePap.

Given that the Bush admin. will be campaigning in the name of new large government programs and more Federal powers, how will not being for "small government" hurt Dean?

Most centrists do not care about government being small with any real zeal. The zealots of small government are stuck being betrayed by Bush. "Small Government" is not an issue this year.

[DinoDoc]

How well do you think campaigning on raising taxes will go for him?

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
I don't know. Spitting on the Clinton statement that the "era of Big Government" is over doesn't really sound conservative or that centrist to me. We also have him proposing raising taxes from the outset. That doesn't seem wise when trying to get people to vote for you.

Name me a conservative administration that has reduced the size of the government in the last, oh, 50 years. In fact, of the last 4 presidents, the only one to shrink the government was Clinton, the most liberal.

Dean isn't proposing raising taxes per se, but ending Bush's tax cuts, which are temporary anyway. Dean wants to see them be more temporary, because he's interested in fiscal conservativism of the balanced budget kind (ya know, real fiscal conservatism?). Dean has proposed other means of giving tax cuts, but to families who need them rather than Bush's wealthy friends.

[GePap]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
How well do you think campaigning on raising taxes will go for him?

As well as Bush campaigning on massive cuts to programs, unless he decides to stick with his program to raise deficits.

Large sections of the Bush tax cut have not even come into being, and some, like raising the minimum alternative tax would INCREASE the middle class tax burden, so calling repealing a tax cut that has not come inot being a tax hike is not that honest. As for reapealing the sections that have come into being-if the deficit is as big as it is, fiscal dicipline is needed.

So basically Dean can run on fiscal disicpline, and as far as I know, centrists like fiscal dicipline.