The future of Russia

[Mr. President]

But Minnesota does rule, after all.

[Odin]

Originally posted by Crimson Sunrise
But Minnesota does rule, after all.

I live in a farming area and it is amazing to see corn grow to 8 ft. in 3 months, courtesy of our long summer days.

[Serb]

Originally posted by DanS
Yes, but I was implying that history won't inform us about Russia's future too much in this regard. Agriculture contributes about 1% of the US economy, for instance. And we export a lot.

Right, and we can't export, because we will always lose cometition with your (or anyone else) manufacturers of food, because our agriculture can't be so effective due our climate.

Yes, you are right. I would only point out that overall, energy is less of a problem than you might think, once the overall economic situation settles down. Energy of all types contributes only about 3% of the US economy, for instance.

While most of the energy you consume contributes to your economy growth (consumed to produce something), we consume more energy per population and absolute majority of this energy, contributes to our survival. The energy we consume, produce nothing except our surviaval. That's the problem.

I would merely point out that others have their own particular considerations with construction and seem to do OK. The Japanese build their buildings to withstand drastic earthquakes, for instance. The Russians are no less ingenious than the Japanese and can solve their own puzzles.

Sure, but what I meant is not only construction cost, but also maintenance cost. Perhaps it cost the same to build a house in cold climate and to build a house in warm climate, but which can withstand drastic earthquakes. But the first house reqire warm, it consume more electricity for elumination, because days are shorter here, it have to be repaired much more often, because the difference of temperatures day/night and summer/winter destroys this house faster, than the second house, etc. So maintenance of first house will always cost more than maintenance of second house. This create additional exences for ANY manufacturer who works in first house, and makes him less competitive in comparison with the manufacturer who works in second house.

Also, I suggest that the difference in construction and maintenance costs is likely not as great as you think. Building a skyscraper in the US costs on the order of $230 a square foot, only about double what it takes to build a single-family home (about $110 a square foot, depending on where you live). In most parts of the US, one is constructed of wood and is the flimsiest of construction. The other is built of steel, concrete, and glass where mother nature doesn't intrude.

You know what amaze us when we watch your movies? You "paper" houses of flimsiest construction. You can't find a single such house in Russia, because no one will survive a winter in such house. To simply survive, we have to build a house with thick walls, have to use warm-saving materials, dig pipes (gas, water, warm)below this house much deeper, because otherwise they will be destroyed by cold during winer, etc. We have to do all this, while all you need to survive in your climate- is just a roof above your head, a house of flimsiest construction. Simple survival in our climate reqires much more, energy and resourses.

FYI, construction contributes about 8% of the US economy and 12% of the Japanese economy. But they do a lot of stupid make-work government construction.
Anyway, you've only considered about 10-15% of a modern economy (energy, agriculture, construction). As long as Russia reorganizes its economic life sufficiently, these factors shouldn't hold back Russia unduly, even if these areas are double or triple the size versus other advanced countries.

Ok, I'll try to explain what I meant, once again:
Two manufactureres of any goods (ANY, like cars, aircrafts, canned food, electronics, just ANY goods), both use the same manufacturing technologies and have the same level of organization, in other words, two absolutely alike companies. But first munufacturer have additional and PERMANENT expences, due climate where his company is located. The second manufacturer do not have this expences, because his company is located in country with much more warm climate.
How do you think who will win the competition and who will go bunkrupt?

[Serb]

Originally posted by Seeker
well you know what I think....

And comparing average temperatures in Russia and Canada is silly. Just like in Canada, few people live in the permafrost areas.

Really? On this planet there are only 12 cities with population above 1 million, that located near or within the polar circle (don't remember the exact altitude).
11 of those cities are Russian cities.

Further, Arctic lands may not be good for farming or living on, but they tend to be filled with lots of raw resources other countries want (wood, minerals, gas, etc etc).

Right, but with such prices as now, it's not profitable to develop them. Those stockpiles of raw resources will become profitable when other stokpiles on this planet will be depleted and the prices will skyrocket.

The sad thing is that DESPITE being blessed with tremendous natural advantages, Russian culture has made them suck. They drink too much, are too depressed or fatalistic, not idealistic enough.

Bullsh!t, what the hell could you know about our culture. No matter what you think we don't belong to top Europeans drinkers.

[Serb]

Originally posted by Odin
Too cold for agriculture? The climate of Moscow is almost identical to northern Minnesota, and we don't have any problems growing wheat, corn, beets, beans, sunflowers, soybeans, carrots, apples, strawberries, cherries, and grapes (yes, Minnesota has a few small wine makers).

1) When the hell you'll understand that Moscow it's not the same as Russia? Moscow as far from the rest of Russia, as Gibraltar far from GB. Moscow is our cross, the bloodsucking parasite on body of Russia. I use to live there, so I know wtf I'm talking about.
2) If you growing grapes in Minnesota, then surely it's much warmer there. Grapes can grow only in the most southern and very small regions of Russia.
3) What is the yearly average temperature in Minnesota?
4) What is yearly average temperature in USA?

[Mazarin]

Why the hell are you still living in the cold areas...just move to the warmer parts: it's not like they would be more populated that western Europe if all Russians moved there.

[Serb]

You suggest we should build whole new country from scratch? And who will pay for this? I requires sh!tloads of time and resources. Anyway all 147 millions of Russian population can't move to coast of Black sea. There are not so many "as warm as in the rest of Europe" places in Russia as you might think. I live in South of Siberia (near Kazakhstan's border). Winter starts here at November and last till April. The temperature of -40C at winter do not amaze me much, as well as +40C at summer. We can't just take our city and move it south, because the territory at south belongs to sovereign country- Kazakhstan.

[Mazarin]

It wasn't meant that seriously...The main point, however is: Russia has moderate climate in areas that are several times bigger than Germany, for example. If it is so much more cost-efficient to be building factories/houses in the warmer parts, people will be moving there...not all at once, but continously. The fact that people are living in the colder areas indicates that the benefits (ressources) at least offset the additional costs.

[The Mad Monk]

For comparison:

Bemidji, Miinesota

Omsk, Russia

[Serb]

Originally posted by The Mad Monk
For comparison:

Bemidji, Miinesota

Omsk, Russia

Do you see the difference now?


Another comparison. From what I found about Bemidji:

"Today, the greater Bemidji area serves as a growing regional center for all of Northern Minnesota. The City supports a population of just over 12,000. The greater Bemidji area, which includes much of southern Beltrami County and northern Hubbard County, has a combined population of 30,000. It serves a retail market population in northern Minnesota of 60,000. Some of the larger retailers found in the Bemidji include, Target, WalMart, Home Depot, Big K, JC Penney's and Herbergers. The most recent restaurant additions include Ground Round and Applebee's."
http://www.bemidjiusa.com/bembel.html

Now about Omsk:
"Omsk oblast is situated to the south-west of West-Siberian low-lands and occupies territory of 140 thousand square kilometers (54 thousand square miles). In the territory of the oblast there are 32 administrative districts. The northern part of the oblast is a forest-taiga zone. Forest-steppe with fertile black earth soil stretches to the south. Irtish, the largest tributary of the river Ob, flows south-north over the oblast and is navigable throughout the territory. Like Novosibirsk oblast, this of Omsk isn't rich in natural resources.
Climate in the oblast is continental - with warm and sunny summer, frosty and snowy winter. Average temperature in January is -21C (-6F), in July +19C (+66F). Absolute temperature maximum in Omsk was +40C (+104F), absolute minimum -49C (-56F). Annual precipitation varies between 200mm and 400mm.

In recent years, population of the oblast has been stable: 2,173 thousand (beginning of 1994). What small population growth has occurred (1.2 per mille, 1993) is one of the highest in Western Siberia.

There are six cities in the territory of the oblast: Omsk, Isilkul, Kalachinsk, Nazyvaevsk, Tara and Tukalinsk. In early 1994, the urban population of the oblast was 1,467 thousand the majority (about a million people) being concentrated in Omsk.
Note: this statistic is for 1994. Currently urban population is above 1,5 million.
More info here:
http://ieie.nsc.ru/br/sbr2_6.html

Do you see the difference now?

[Serb]

Originally posted by Mazarin
It wasn't meant that seriously...The main point, however is: Russia has moderate climate in areas that are several times bigger than Germany, for example. If it is so much more cost-efficient to be building factories/houses in the warmer parts, people will be moving there...not all at once, but continously. The fact that people are living in the colder areas indicates that the benefits (ressources) at least offset the additional costs.

They live here, because they were born there. They were born there, because those cities were founded there. Those cities were founded there, because at this time Russia was expaning and needed cities to hold its territory. Those cities, like my for example, became big centers of industrial production with big enough population (to work in this industry) during WW2, when huge amount of factories, education facilities and personel were evaquated here from wetern (occupied) part of Russia. This event played very important role in fate of those cities. Before the middle of 20th century they weren't so big.
Next, in my region we don't have any resources except our soil and forest that grows on it. So, what I'm trying to say is that when my city became really big, it wasn't because it was very profitable, but because it was necessary. Our city has huge military industry, half of what flying in space under Russian flag, made in our city, we make our own tanks (T-80U), our own military electronics, military cargo planes, engines and other parts of jets, etc. It would have been more profitable if this industry was located in more warm part of USSR, like Ukraina, for example, but it was re-located here and remained here, not to ompimize profits, but because of strategic reasons.

[Combat Ingrid]

Originally posted by Serb
You can't find a single such house in Russia, because no one will survive a winter in such house. To simply survive, we have to build a house with thick walls, have to use warm-saving materials, dig pipes (gas, water, warm)below this house much deeper, because otherwise they will be destroyed by cold during winer, etc. Simple survival in our climate reqires much more, energy and resourses.

Sounds just like Sweden

[Serb]

Almost.
You guys have Golfstream.

[Combat Ingrid]

Sure, but we still have winter from november to april. The houses are built with thick walls and thick multi-layered windows and lots of isolation. All the pipes are deep in the ground to prevent freezing, just like you said they are in Russia. Now please tell me, what's the big difference?
Except that Russia is so very special, of course

[Serb]

The Mad Monk, Thanks for very usefull tool.

Combat Ingrid, let's see what temperature you have in Stockholm:

http://www.weather.com/outlook/trave...31?from=search

Compare it with temperature in my home city:
http://www.weather.com/outlook/trave...nthly/RSXX0080

Do you see the difference?
The climate here is different. Your winter isn't so hursh as our winter. Our climate is continental, while you have the ocean nearby. Russia is colder than Sweden. Another problem is distances and population. Had we aproximately the same number of population, like in Sweden and if this population lived in (western) areas of Russia that have alike (as Sweden) climate , I'm pretty sure that Russia would have been pretty much like Sweden. But we have much bigger population, and our government have to subtitaize big part of this population who live in much worse climate conditions (through low electricity and fuel prices, etc), because otherwise all those millions will simply die. That's the difference.

[Aivo½so]

Okay, so winters are colder in Omsk, but the summer is still about as long as in Stockholm, and we have to remember that more than 80% of the Russian population live in the European part of Russia.

[Serb]

Originally posted by Aivo½so
Okay, so winters are colder in Omsk, but the summer is still about as long as in Stockholm,

I don't know how in Stockholm, but here an agricultural season last three months and during those three months our peasants have to make stockpiles of food for domestic animals, to survive the winter.
Another reason is soil. It's not the same everywhere.

and we have to remember that more than 80% of the Russian population live in the European part of Russia.

It depends on what you consider as "European part of Russia".

[Aivo½so]

I mean the area that is geographically located in Europe.

[Serb]

Then it depends on what you consider as Europe.



CIA's site says that whole Russia located in north Asia).

[Cruddy]

Serb, you have missed one USEFUL result of having an extremely cold climate...

It puts you in a position to research, test and develop techniques for humans to exist in places like Antarctica and under the sea.

I'm not saying it's easy or "the logical thing to do" - but it could be to your advantage in the long term.

[Aivo½so]

General Winter has also helped Russia defend itself many times.

Russia:

3 or officially Russian Federation independent country in E Europe & N Asia bordering on Arctic & Pacific oceans & on Baltic & Black seas; a constituent republic ( Russian Republic or Soviet Russia) of the U.S.S.R. 1922-91 capital Moscow area 6,592,812 square miles (17,075,383 square kilometers), population 148,000,000

Siberia:

region N Asia in Russia extending from the Urals to the Pacific; roughly coextensive with Russia in Asia

http://www.m-w.com

[Serb]

Originally posted by Cruddy
Serb, you have missed one USEFUL result of having an extremely cold climate...

It puts you in a position to research, test and develop techniques for humans to exist in places like Antarctica and under the sea.

I'm not saying it's easy or "the logical thing to do" - but it could be to your advantage in the long term.

You are absolutely correct here Cruddy. We already developed a special human being called Sibiryak who can survive at Antarctica.
When we will have enough boats, we will invade Antarctica and make it ours forever. It rightfully belongs to Russia, because we were the people who discovered it.
Oh, almost forget, we'll get Alaska back too.

[Serb]

Originally posted by Aivo½so
General Winter has also helped Russia defend itself many times.

Russia:


Siberia:


http://www.m-w.com

Can you find something about percentage of population who live in European part of Russia? (I'm too lazy to it myself).

[Aivo½so]

http://www.nsu.ru/aiesec/english/for...es/siberia.php claims that Siberia's population in 1994 was an estimated 25,110,000. If we divide 25 million by 145 million (Russia's population) we get ~0,172, which is the percentage of Russians living in Siberia. Thus we can conclude that 83% of Russians live in the European part.

[Serb]

And what it changes?
Even such "warm" city of European part of Russia is still colder than Stockholm.
http://www.weather.com/outlook/trave...63?from=search

[Combat Ingrid]

Serb, I let a Russian friend of mine read your posts in this thread. He pointed out that perhaps the buildings in Omsk has a special architecture to withstand the winter better, but for Russia in general, the houses (especially those built in the USSR era) are not built to handle cold weather. Just concrete blocks without proper insulation. Pretty much cheap containers for people, but not really made for living.

[Aivo½so]

Well, the temperatures from May to September seem to be about the same as in Stockholm, and the remaining months are just a bit colder. I don't think the preparations for winter conditions that have to be made in Moscow can be that much different from those in Stockholm. I have to agree that the winters in Omsk are pretty cold but not a lot of Russians live in areas that cold.

[Hurricane]

Originally posted by Serb
Ok, I'll try to explain what I meant, once again:
Two manufactureres of any goods (ANY, like cars, aircrafts, canned food, electronics, just ANY goods), both use the same manufacturing technologies and have the same level of organization, in other words, two absolutely alike companies. But first munufacturer have additional and PERMANENT expences, due climate where his company is located. The second manufacturer do not have this expences, because his company is located in country with much more warm climate.
How do you think who will win the competition and who will go bunkrupt?

Maybe you should read some basic economics.

Consider two countries, A and B.

* A is located in a harsh area, and produces products Gadget for $100 a piece and product Widget for $500 a piece.

* B is located in a nice warm climate, and produces the exact same products Gadget for $75 and Widget for $450.

Explain why it is a good deal for BOTH countries to trade (and thus boost both countries' economy), instead of making all the goods themselves.

[Serb]

Explain why it is a good deal for BOTH countries to trade (and thus boost both countries' economy), instead of making all the goods themselves.

Actually I don't get what you mean. Are you talking about competition in general? Which leads to imrovments of technologies, lower prices, etc?
Or are you talking about Ricardo's thoughts, that country A can produce other goods more efficently than country B and will win the competition with country B in other area. So it's cheaper for country A to buy the goods X from country B (because it will cost for it more to produce it themself) and to sell to country B their goods Y (and country B will buy it because it's more cheaper for them to buy it from country A, than to produce it themself).
If so, then I can't see many areas where goods produced in Russia will be more competitive than goods produced in other countries. An examples of such areas can be space and military technologies (where our goods still competitive, thanks to our technologies), but this area of market is heavily influenced by politics. Country B will never buy such goods from country A and countries C,E,F,G,J, etc, will buy such goods from country B regardless that it would have been more profitable for them to buy the same goods from country A. They are in military alliance or under political pressure of country B.

[Serb]

Originally posted by Combat Ingrid
Serb, I let a Russian friend of mine read your posts in this thread. He pointed out that perhaps the buildings in Omsk has a special architecture to withstand the winter better, but for Russia in general, the houses (especially those built in the USSR era) are not built to handle cold weather. Just concrete blocks without proper insulation. Pretty much cheap containers for people, but not really made for living.

I live in one of those "containers" since it was build in 1982 (nine years before the fall of SU) and still survived.