In response to the sabotage thing:

ruoxiaohai · January 7, 2001, 02:45

So is the chance of sabotage related to the number of improvements a city has? If so, I'm assuming that wonders don't count. Does that apply to a spy as well?
Also, do military units in a city contribute to the chance of success in sabotage?

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I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than a frontal lobotomy.

EdwardTKing · January 7, 2001, 19:17

In my experience the probability of success of sabotage is NOT related to the number of improvements at all.

If there are no improvements, current production is sabotaged.

Trying to sabotage a particular improvement is more risky than just trying to sabotage any thing; and some improvements such as city walls, coastal fortress, SDI
are more risky than others.

Once built a wonder can NOt be sabotaged or sold; only perhaps obsoleted or certainly irretrievably lost if the city is destroyed.

The probability of success is higher with a spy than a diplomat and higher still with a veteran spy.

The probability of success is much reduced if the city has a spy to catch your spy.

I note that if you keep trying to sabotage the same city (with AIs at least)the city becomes suspicious and the probability of success decreases further.

Smash · January 7, 2001, 20:38

I've never had a sabotage attempt fail with dips or spys.Vets or no.AS long as I didn't pick a specific target.The dip or spy bomb run is deadly and pretty much indefensible.Only way is to stop em before they get there.Darn near impossible sometimes.

Scouse Gits · January 7, 2001, 21:06

City Walls are harder to bring down than Coastal Fortresses. SDI is more complicated - I believe there is a message about barbed wire preventing sabotage - but my one attempt was a long time ago!! Others should know more about this.

The message about the AI being suspicious only comes when a spy attempts to steal tech more than once from the same place. (Diplos can never steal twice fron the same city) Repeated sabotage in the same location does not seem to reduce your chances of success.

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SG (2)

ruoxiaohai · January 8, 2001, 06:06

My friend was playing in the WW79 scenario given with conflicts in civilization addon, and he was distressed to find out that he could not sabotage the enemy SDIs, so it would appear that SDIs cannot be sabotaged.
Other than that, thanks for the input!

Laertes · January 8, 2001, 07:53

I think a previous thread showed someone experimenting with repeated sabotages. Once the experimenter had reduced the target city to just SDI as the only remaining improvement, all future sabotage attempts destroyed whatever was in production, even though no shields had been added since the last attempt.

Bohlen · January 8, 2001, 16:50

I think the verdict is still out on whether or not SDIs can be sabotaged. It has happened before. See this thread ---> http://apolyton.net/forums/Forum3/HTML/000971.html

Edward · January 9, 2001, 01:31

I'll fourth the motion that SDIs cannot be sabatoged.

I had the same experience Fergus Horkan had. With only the SDI improvement left, spies will sabatoge an (even empty) production box, never the SDI.

La Fayette · January 9, 2001, 12:04

ruoxiaohai
Back to your question: "...is the chance of sabotage related to the number of improvements...?".
I would say Yes with dips and No with spies.
Dips cannot choose. Then, if you wish to destroy city walls, the worst that can happen to you is coming to the city with one dip per turn and getting three or four messages telling you that the unit under building has been destroyed. My advice would be: send one dip to have a look and tell how many improvements there are in the city (let us say n), then come back with at least n+1 dips to make sure that the walls go down.
Spies can choose. Then, if you wish to destroy city walls, 1 of 2 vet spies will do the job for you on the average (and at least 1 of 2 will survive). I have not been using any non vet spy for a very long time, but, as far as I remember, the result is the same with lesser chances of success and heavier losses.
God save our gracious vet spies!

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aux bords mystérieux du monde occidental

Crustacian · January 9, 2001, 16:23

Thats right, it was only said because the more improvements you have in a city (before spies with their selection abilities) the more chances you have of sabotaging one of the other buildings or production shield boxes (which can be done over and over in one turn).

Military units inside the city do not help to hinder sabotage.

And yes dips do sometimes foil the steal tech attempt. I have seen it happen lots of times.
Civ2 manual: It says "each dips has a 20% chance to twart steal tech, spies 40%, vet spies 60%, and the effect is cumulative in the effort to do this. But I do not think that having 5 dips in a city will prevent stealing of a tech from it as it says regarding the cumulative effect.

And sabotage is not prevented by having a dip in it. Tho it should be the same as with stealing imho

Smash · January 9, 2001, 16:46

Yes there should be some way to counter sabotage.Either thru foiling or some improvement that lessens chances.I always thought the courthouse and police stations should have more "abilities".There just isn't any reasonable defense and that kinda sucks.Its great if I'm the one sabotaging;

Crustacian · January 9, 2001, 17:19

It was interesting to try some tests. one city had 6 dips inside, but on the 11th attempt a tech was stolen.

the other cities each had 5 dips and anywhere from the 1st try to maybe 8 tries before a tech was stolen.

But, it would be such a loss of dips to steal against such a counterespionage defense that it may be too impractical. A player would need a bunch of dips ready, and unless they were on a boat, would be sitting ducks if their mission failed. Evn then it would be no guarantee any would escape.

So get known as a heavy defender with dips and maybe no one will mess with you.

SlowThinker · January 9, 2001, 18:42

quote:

Originally posted by Crustacian on 01-09-2001 03:23 PM
Civ2 manual: It says "each dips has a 20% chance to twart steal tech, spies 40%, vet spies 60%, and the effect is cumulative in the effort to do this.

I claimed at point 11.2 of LINK: Info: Diplomats and Spies that it is not cumulative

quote:

Originally posted by Crustacian on 01-09-2001 03:23 PM
But I do not think that having 5 dips in a city will prevent stealing of a tech from it as it says regarding the cumulative effect.

It may be cumulative this way:
Chance against one dip = 0.8 (80%)
Chance against 2 dips = 0.8*0.8 (64%)
Chance against 3 dips = 0.8^3
(^ means power)
etc
[This message has been edited by SlowThinker (edited January 10, 2001).]

debeest · January 10, 2001, 03:32

I believe this to be the case. I think you should add it as a tentative conclusion in your excellent dip/spy thread.

SlowThinker · January 10, 2001, 04:02

good advertisement, debeest

There is many unanswered probability-oriented questions in LINK: Info: Diplomats and Spies (they have a blue color there), does anybody want to perform and to release some tests? I am bored with dip/spy tests yet.
[This message has been edited by SlowThinker (edited January 10, 2001).]

debeest · January 10, 2001, 04:10

Heh. I can't find yer durn dip/spy thread any way but by clicking on your link to it. Okay, I'm not all that bright with computer stuff, but I think your thread needs all the advertising it can get.

SlowThinker · January 10, 2001, 05:19

La Fayette,

quote:

Originally posted by La Fayette on 01-09-2001 11:04 AM
Dips cannot choose. Then, if you wish to destroy city walls, the worst that can happen to you is coming to the city with one dip per turn and getting three or four messages telling you that the unit under building has been destroyed. My advice would be: send one dip to have a look and tell how many improvements there are in the city (let us say n), then come back with at least n+1 dips to make sure that the walls go down.

1. It may be useful to check a city during sabotaging. Suppose an opponent have a city with 8 improvements. After 4 sabotage actions there is a 50% chance (?! look points 2 and 3) that city walls were destroyed yet: So, there is a 50% chance you will consume your last dip if you will let him investigate the city.

2. Question 12.14 of
LINK: Info: Diplomats and Spies is relevant:
What is the probability that diplomat/spy+"use her judgement" will choose to sabotage a production?

3. Do all improvements have the same probability to be chosen for a diplomat/spy+"use her judgement" sabotage?

Crustacian · January 10, 2001, 06:43

quote:

Originally posted by SlowThinker on 01-09-2001 05:42 PM

I claimed at point 11.2 of LINK: Info: Diplomats and Spies that it is not cumulative

It may be cumulative this way:
Chance against one dip = 0.8 (80%)
Chance against 2 dips = 0.8*0.8 (64%)
Chance against 3 dips = 0.8^3
(^ means power)
etc
[This message has been edited by SlowThinker (edited January 10, 2001).]

Sorry I was not able to exhaust the archived info put forward on the subject so far, but ruoxiaohai asked and I looked for an answer in the manual rather than off the top of my head.

You say it is not cumulative, then you say it "MAY" be. Saying the chance against one dip is 80% is the same as the civ manual says 1 dip has 20% chance to thwart...6 of one/ half dozen of the other. After that it is only speculation as to exactly whats what

I know from experience it is, (to "some degree") the manual says it is.

Obviously it is not cumulative in the reasonable guess sense of:
1 dip = 20%, therefore 5 dips = 100% un stealable.
Since techs can still be stolen with even 6 dips inside this is not a correct conclusion.

But it is cumulative to some degree, and in a "practical sense" you can use this general knowledge to your advantage.

1)To simply know that the more dips you have in a city the better your chances of thwarting tech stealing

2)It is important simply to know that 5 dips or even one will not guarantee a theft will be thwarted.

3) It is simple to understand that someone wanting to steal will only go so far to do so. Well some folks anyway

If you don't have some dips in vulnerable cities it will be very easy and surely worth while to those who steal techs.
If you have some dips in vulnerable cities, they may find it not worth while to steal and may actually research things for their own self

SlowThinker · January 10, 2001, 07:07

quote:

Originally posted by Crustacian on 01-10-2001 05:43 AM
You say it is not cumulative, then you say it "MAY" be.

I speak in past tense (I claimed...it is not cumulative ).

quote:

Originally posted by Crustacian on 01-10-2001 05:43 AM
Obviously it is not cumulative in the reasonable guess sense of:
1 dip = 20%, therefore 5 dips = 100% un stealable.
Since techs can still be stolen with even 6 dips inside this is not a correct conclusion.

1 dip = 20% chance to thwart,
1 dip = 80%(100%-20%) chance to steal,
2 dips = 64% chance to steal,
...
5 dips = 0.8 power 5 *100% (it is not zero) chance to steal,
therefore 5 dips is not 100% chance to thwart

So it MAY be cumulative that way.

[This message has been edited by SlowThinker (edited January 10, 2001).]

La Fayette · January 10, 2001, 10:43

ST
Thank you for giving me a link to your thread about dips and spies. I can understand why you get bored testing!
It's very good work and will proove to be very useful, like SG's Great Library.
I got bored bribing the other day, but I'll try to contribute as soon as I recover

.

La Fayette · January 10, 2001, 12:17

ST,
I must answer your post on this thread in the meantime.
My feeling is that when a dip attempts sabotaging he destroys:
1) the unit under building (if there are shields in the box),
2) then improvements other than city walls,
3) then city walls.
(but this is a feeling, not a test; maybe it's random, as you suggest, with a high probability for unit under building and a very low one for walls).
Come on guys! Help us testing!

------------------
aux bords mystérieux du monde occidental

Scouse Gits · January 10, 2001, 14:41

La Fayette - I think there is a much higher probability that the diplomat will destroy the City Walls later rather than sooner. There have been times when I've packed a city with them only to find I need one or two before I destroy the Walls.

It is probably the reason we all keep playing ... the game always has a few surprises!

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SG (2)

La Fayette · January 11, 2001, 12:49

SG,
Mind you, I'm going to destroy hundreds of improvements to-night with dips and spies and my beloved vet spies!
Results to-morrow (unless I get stuck under the rubble).

La Fayette · January 12, 2001, 12:22

The proud egyptian city of Memphis has been under severe assault last night. 300 improvements have been destroyed by hordes of babylonian spies and vet spies.
Here are the main results:

1) Attack by 6 spies (non vet, use their judgment)
(since there are 5 improvements in the city, plus one under building)
Losses (after 25 attacks, which was judged to be enough, since the pattern was quite clear): 75 spies captured, 75 spies unharmed and promoted to veteran status.
This means exactly 50% losses.

Results (after 25 attacks):
Bank (ub) : 9, 5, 1, 2, 2, 6, =25
Barracks :12, 9, 4, 0, 0, 0, =25
Temple : 2,10, 9, 4, 0, 0, =25
Market Pl : 1, 0, 9,12, 3, 0, =25
Library : 0, 0, 0, 6,15, 4, =25
City Walls : 1, 1, 2, 1, 5,15, =25

(9 column one means that the bank under building was destroyed 9 times by spy #1)

The pattern is clear: almost a diagonal matrix, meaning that spies destroy almost according with the list of improvements, with a slight random factor (and a less clear pattern for the improvement under building).

2) Attack by 6 vet spies (use their judgmeent)

Losses (after 25 attacks): 43 vet spies captured, 107 unharmed.

Results:

Bank (ub) : 8, 4, 4, 2, 1, 6, =25
Barracks :12, 9, 4, 0, 0, 0, =25
Temple : 2,10, 9, 4, 0, 0, =25
Market P : 1, 0, 9,12, 3, 0, =25
Library : 0, 0, 0, 6,15, 4, =25
City Walls : 1, 1, 2, 1, 5,15, =25

(same pattern).
I intend to destroy some more improvements during the week-end. Results next week.

ST
Of course I put the main results on your thread when the fight is over

.

------------------
aux bords mystérieux du monde occidental

La Fayette · January 12, 2001, 12:34

The proud egyptian city of Memphis has been under severe assault last night. 300 improvements have been destroyed by hordes of babylonian spies and vet spies.
Here are the main results:

1) Attack by 6 spies (non vet, use their judgment)
(since there are 5 improvements in the city, plus one under building)
Losses (after 25 attacks, which was judged to be enough, since the pattern was quite clear): 75 spies captured, 75 spies unharmed and promoted to veteran status.
This means exactly 50% losses.

Results (after 25 attacks):
Bank (ub) : 9, 5, 1, 2, 2, 6, =25
Barracks :12, 9, 4, 0, 0, 0, =25
Temple : 2,10, 9, 4, 0, 0, =25
Market Pl : 1, 0, 9,12, 3, 0, =25
Library : 0, 0, 0, 6,15, 4, =25
City Walls : 1, 1, 2, 1, 5,15, =25

(9 column one means that the bank under building was destroyed 9 times by spy #1)

The pattern is clear: almost a diagonal matrix, meaning that spies destroy almost according with the list of improvements, with a slight random factor (and a less clear pattern for the improvement under building).

2) Attack by 6 vet spies (use their judgmeent)

Losses (after 25 attacks): 43 vet spies captured, 107 unharmed.

Results:

Bank (ub) : 8, 4, 4, 2, 1, 6, =25
Barracks :12, 9, 4, 0, 0, 0, =25
Temple : 2,10, 9, 4, 0, 0, =25
Market P : 1, 0, 9,12, 3, 0, =25
Library : 0, 0, 0, 6,15, 4, =25
City Walls : 1, 1, 2, 1, 5,15, =25

(same pattern).
I intend to destroy some more improvements during the week-end. Results next week.

ST
Of course I put the main results on your thread when the fight is over

.

Campo · January 12, 2001, 14:16

One question about basing dips/spies in a city to prevent sabotage: Should they be sleeping or fortified, or doesn't it matter?

Alinestra Covelia · January 12, 2001, 18:34

As my response to the sabotage thread, I would merely like to point out that ruoxiaohai is probably a compulsive thief when he is at home. Also that counterespionage is futile against him.

SlowThinker · January 13, 2001, 00:18

La Fayette,
very good work!

quote:

Originally posted by La Fayette on 01-12-2001 11:22 AM
ST
Of course I put the main results on your thread when the fight is over

.

Good idea: I noticed this thread, but, in general, I may be engaded by other things, so it would be proper act to notice me about any new result.

I go ski for next week, I will upgrade Post1 then.

East Street Trader · January 13, 2001, 01:34

In broad terms, therefore, a vet succeeds (and survives) two third of the time, a greenie half.

Also looks as though the building/unit/wonder under construction doesn't get hit a second time once the production box is empty. (I have a feeling this has happened to me tho' - not when there is nothing left, or nothing but SDI, I mean. Can't place when tho'.)

There is a weighting towards less valuable improvements save that city walls have a generally lower probability but that lower probability can come in from hit one onwards.

All this accords with what unsystematised experience would suggest. Very nice to have it confirmed more authoritatively tho'.

Allez la France - keep up the good work.

East Street Trader · January 15, 2001, 06:52

SlowThinker

Just got back from a fortnight in Murren - awesome despite poor snow.

Is there skiing in the Czech Republic?