Predicting the XP Civs. (make your predictions as well)

[Bisonbison]

With all the voting going on, I thought it would be important to move on to predicting the civs that would actually be included in an XP, which is less about a personal preference than about reading the mindset over at Firaxis.

Let's really try to deduce the ones with merit in a way where Firaxis is inherently right in it's eventual conclusions, and where we're the ones who need to figure stuff out. After all, they do think about this game 60+ hours a week with an eye on making it better, and any of you that claims you do the same might want to get some fresh air.

So, with that in mind, they're listed in order of importance: these six are the ones I'd bet on. Six civs, even though it's less than half as many as are included in the release, still represent a large investment in art assets and balancing, and are about as many good candidates as I could justify to myself as really inevitable, so there you go.

Most of this is done with balancing and filling in the real world map in mind.

1. Mongolians
Perhaps the most glaring omission is the Mongol civ. They're great, they're hugely destructive, and they fill that space in northern and northeastern Asia that would allow China, Russia, India or Japan to get a little too ridiculously large. (UU: The Mounted Bowman, a modified knight. 5.3.3. From the knight's 4.3.2.)

2. The Inca
Fills in South America, which happens to be a large continent with no civ in it right now. Also, nice name recognition and good and distinct from Aztecs and Iroquois. (UU: I have no idea.)

3. The Polynesians
Fills in Australia, New Zealand, New Guinea and any pacific islands they stick in the map, and provides a nice pressure against China and Japan. Australia in the release version is gonna be a big unpopulated hole on the map, and I don't like that so much. (UU: I like the voyager canoe, a modified trireme with increased stability and movement, but it's going to be awfully limiting sometimes on random maps)

4. The Vikings (Scandanavians)
Again, as with the Mongols, what's not to like? They fill in Scandanavia, provide good pressure on Russia and on any civ in central europe, and are famous. Who else will keep the filthy English and Iroquois from colonizing Greenland? (UU: Longboat: fast trireme with bombard capacity. Might be limiting on random maps)

5. The Spanish
Well, this is one of those inevitable ones, and it makes Europe about as crowded as Europe can get. The spanish are big, were once world dominating and certainly deserve to be in. (UU: Conquistador? A modified version of the first gunpowder unit, with higher movement and attack? Who knows?)

6. The Maya
When I came to the sixth one I couldn't figure it out. There seem to be 4 areas in need of a civ on the world map: Northwest US/Canada, Central America/northern South America, West Africa, and your Mom. We all know your mom will be taken care of, so I'm going to guess that since the Maya have the best name recognition of any civ off the top of my head from one of those areas, it'll be the Maya. Nothing comes to mind in Northwest US/Canada, and to put carthage in the game is to put yet another Mediterranean civ in the game, and is going to squeeze egypt to a small nub.

So there you go. 6 predictions, all of them 100 percent correct. Anyone else want to post their predictions. Not the ones you "want" to see or the ones that "must be in the game", but the ones that will be in the game because they make sense and provide better balance. I'd personally prefer a good Seattle area native american civ, but I just can't come up with a good enough one to think they'd pick it over the maya.

[JellyDonut]

I think the Arabs are in good standing, too, especially with the recent world focus on them, they aren't going anywhere.

[Bisonbison]

I guess I'm just blind to the need for yet another middle-eastern civ.

I mean we have babylonians, persians, and egyptians, with the greeks and indians providing barriers to Europe and Asia. It had better be a fertile crescent, cause those three civs are going to be competing for space in any real-world scenario.

[JellyDonut]

You would expect a fair level of crowdedness if you were playing 32 civs at once (which may not even be possible), wouldn't you?

I'm just reporting that the Arabs seem to be in a stable position on the top 16 of Locutus' thread. Don't kill the messenger.

[Bisonbison]

Oh, no intent to kill the messenger.

But say we had 22 or 24 civs at once.

At release 5 are European, 3 are middle eastern, 4 are asian, 3 are american, and 1 is sub-saharan african. That's 8 civs on or around the mediterranean, and that's a lot. Even my attempt to spread the world out a little adds Spanish and Viking Civs to the European/North African area. If you were going to add 6 or 8 civs to the mix, would you want to add more European/Middle Eastern/North African ones, or would you want to add a sub-saharan one, an Australian one, an Asian one and so one.

That's kind of the point of the thread. Not that we're overlooking great civs in historically important areas, but that we have to look at areas that have been ignored.

[orange]

I forget this too, but you have to remember that most games are NOT played on the world map. Therefore crowding is not really an issue, it's worthiness and uniqueness of the civ that is being debated.

Spanish
Mongols
Vikings
Celts
Inca
Maya
Aksumite

[Bisonbison]

Crowding isn't an issue. I know that, but Real-world-map crowding is a symptom of over-emphasis on certain real-world-map civs.

What area do the celts occupy that isn't already defined by the spanish/french/german/british/roman civs? Or, what cities did the celts create that aren't merely reproduced in spanish/french/german/british and roman lists?

And while I'd love to see another African civ, it seems like no one will have heard of the Aksumites, so what is the draw there? If they are near-etheopian, then that has a valid recognition argument, but it leaves all of Australia and the pacific wide open.

[JellyDonut]

Originally posted by Bisonbison
...what cities did the celts create that aren't merely reproduced in spanish/french/german/british and roman lists?

Are we forgetting Dublin? How about Cork (where some of my ancestors come from)? Galway? Cardiff (if you mean English, not British), etc., etc.

The Celts start out in Ireland in Civ II and seems logical enough that in a Civ III map, they would too. And the Roman Empire stretched over Spanish, French, German, English, Greek, Babylonian and Egyptian lands. The British Empire included India and the former Babylonian lands, as well as Egypt, America, Zulu Land, etc. The French held lands now owned by the Germans, the English, the Russian, etc. I don't see how this is any different.

And while I'd love to see another African civ, it seems like no one will have heard of the Aksumites, so what is the draw there? If they are near-etheopian, then that has a valid recognition argument, but it leaves all of Australia and the pacific wide open.

This is the main reason I voted for the Ethiopians, the Polynesians, etc.
In Civ, the game is centered around Europe, the Middle East and East Asia. Except for the Zulus and the 3 North American civs, the rest of the world is empty, void of representation! Crowding isn't so much a problem as proper representation. The Arabs may have been crowded in the Middle East if you played it on a world map, but they certainly represent a distinct culture and time period than the Babylonians, Persians or Egyptians.

[Akron]

Originally posted by Bisonbison
And while I'd love to see another African civ, it seems like no one will have heard of the Aksumites, so what is the draw there? If they are near-etheopian, then that has a valid recognition argument, but it leaves all of Australia and the pacific wide open.

Hmmm... Well if they haven't yet heard of the Aksumites, let them hear now! Or if you want, you could call them the ethiopians.

Before playing civ 2, I had never heard of the Zulus, but that doesn't matter. IMO, its fun playing with new and different civs.

The Arabs are definitely a good call. Turks are important too. I really can't understand why both were overlooked in this game. They both had some real historical impact, more than the Zulus or Iroquis. (Not saying these civs should not be in the game, but that the Turks and Arabs should be included)

[Bisonbison]

I think, again, that the hardest part of these discussions is that certain real-life cultures and civs can be conceived of as later parts of earlier civs.

For instance, the Britons or the Celts (or the Picts) settle all of the british isles, and get culturally cut off from mainland europe. You've got a briton or celtic civ right there. Then the roman civ invades, capturing all the Briton civ cities south of (what later becomes Scotland) When the empire retreats, those roman-british cities are culturally or militarily retaken by the british isles civ, but then the norman invasions happen, from the scandanavian civ (who happen to have invaded from land they'd conquered in france). That Norman group ends up breaking off from the Scandanavian Normans for reasons too varied to go into and you end up with an English civ in England and Northern France and a greater British civ in Scotland and Ireland.

That english civ ends up conquering all of wales and scotland, but can't seem to fully get with Ireland, and so a few thousand years later what do you have? And which groups do you make into civs?

The "problem" with the standard solution is that you're picking groups from different time periods, groups that later or earlier were likely part of the same group. The latter day arabs were the babylonians, but they got conquered by the greeks and romans and persians and egyptians and who knows who else along the way.

And I really support people's desire to play their personalized civ on random maps. I'd just like to get a good cross-section of the world on the real-world map. But if we keep on adding European civs then we keep having to point out that the English in 2000 were the celts, the romans, the vikings and maybe the french and germans along the way.

Geez, this got long.

[Pembleton]

Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, Vatican City, Belize, Tajikstan, Bangladesh, Guinea-Bissau and The Gambia.

Spain
(Duh!)

Mexico
Argentina
(Lets get more post-colonial civs in, US isn't enough - unless 'American' is supposed to represent US, Canada, and Mexico)

Mali
(makes more sense than the frelling Zulus)

Middle East and EUrope are already overrepresented.

Before playing civ 2, I had never heard of the Zulus, but that doesn't matter. IMO, its fun playing with new and different civs.

Zulus had their own movie w/ Michael Caine plus a sequal.

[Bisonbison]

But the point is to predict. And obviously Mexico isn't going to get in if the Aztecs are the pre-colonial Mexican civilization.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Arabs better be in the XP! They always get overlooked, even though they are one of the most important civs in history.

[Fiil]

Originally posted by Bisonbison
UU: Longboat: fast trireme with bombard capacity.

Why would the longboats have bombard capacity?

IIRC the viking didn't even fire arrow from them, they allways landed they troops. But maybe any unit in a longboat should be able to make amphibious assaults...

[Bisonbison]

Originally posted by Fiil

IIRC the viking didn't even fire arrow from them, they allways landed they troops. But maybe any unit in a longboat should be able to make amphibious assaults...

Ah. That may be a better suggestion. I was trying to compensate for the quick assault ability, and to make up for the lack of navigable rivers, since that was part of the whole longboat strategy.

[JellyDonut]

Originally posted by Pembleton
Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, Vatican City, Belize, Tajikstan, Bangladesh, Guinea-Bissau and The Gambia.

*sigh* People always overlook the most important civs! You have inspired me to start a "Why San Marino SHOULD be included in the expansion pack" thread. San Marino is the oldest country in the world, founded in the 4th century and thus deserves to be in the expansion pack alongside the Sorbians, the Kyrgyz and whatever you call the people from Brunei Darussalam!

[Boney]

mispost

[El hidalgo]

I predict all the civs from Civ 2 that didn't make it will be back, with the exception of the Sioux. That includes the "hidden" civs (Incas and Arabs). I don't think the Polynesians will be in; the Civ team seem to be fairly conservative in their selection of which civs to include. The Mali/Songhay have a chance. The Ottoman Turks really should be included, and I predict they will. I think that's about it. Another good African civ, btw, would be the Nubians. I don't think they will make it, though; neither will the Axumites.

[Boris Godunov]

First, I seriously don't think the Mongols or Vikings should be in Civ3 as "civilizations." They weren't, they were barbarians. Aren't they covered by the Barbarians in the game? Who else would these Barbarians represent? And the Mongol empire was quite short-lived.

Still, given their popularity in the poll, I will wager Firaxis will include them.

Assuming there are only 6 XP civs, I think they will be:

Mongols
Spanish
Arabs/Turks
Incas
Carthaginians
Celts

(the last two because they were in Civ2, so I think there's a precedent for them being there).

Cheers.

[Ribannah]

My guess is that expansion packs will be scenario-based, not just add additional civs all over the world. For instance, scenarios on African soil could introduce
Arabs, Nubians, Mali, Ethiopians, Portuguese and Dutch.

[Odin]

Originally posted by Boris Godunov
First, I seriously don't think the Mongols or Vikings should be in Civ3 as "civilizations." They weren't, they were barbarians. Aren't they covered by the Barbarians in the game? Who else would these Barbarians represent? And the Mongol empire was quite short-lived.

Still, given their popularity in the poll, I will wager Firaxis will include them.

Assuming there are only 6 XP civs, I think they will be:

Mongols
Spanish
Arabs/Turks
Incas
Carthaginians
Celts

(the last two because they were in Civ2, so I think there's a precedent for them being there).

Cheers.

How dare you call my ancestors Barbarians!!!


LONG LIVE THE VIKINGS!!!

[monkspider]

If I were to predict Firaxis' decisions, which is key here, this thread is not discussing what we personally. This is what I look to see

1. The Mongols
2. The Inca
3. The Celts
4. The Vikings (Scandanavians)
5. The Spanish
6. The Carthaginians/Phonecians

I take the Celts and Carthaginans from Civ 2, even though I think the inclusion of the Celts seems a bit silly, and I don't include the Arabs for reasons of their living on through the various others fertile valley civs.
I think M. Bison's initial list was, for the most part, right on.

[Staszek]

Unfortunaltely, I think that Firaxis is not going to look at Locutus poll. But... why buying XP only for 6 new civs?

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Odin


How dare you call my ancestors Barbarians!!!


LONG LIVE THE VIKINGS!!!

Everyone's ancestor was a barbarian at some point.

Can I help it if yours were lollygagging behind?

[Provost Harrison]

Well I would definitely like to see the Spanish in there, they are certainly worthy and historically very important. Same with the Arabs, and there is plenty known about them, plenty of cities, and certainly enough great rulers!

[Oerdin]

Originally posted by Bisonbison
That english civ ends up conquering all of wales and scotland, but can't seem to fully get with Ireland, and so a few thousand years later what do you have? And which groups do you make into civs?

Historically speaking it was the exact opposite. The English soundly conquered both Wales and Ireland but they can never fully control Scotland thus resulting in Scottish reaserting their independance and latter taking political control of England. Please read the Scottish civ thread for details.

[Faboba]

Could I just point out that the Celts have more right to be in the game than either the Americans or the English really......

The Celts were a defacto civilization in their own right having crossed the landmass which is now the English Channel very early on and begun living in what is now the British Isles.

The English are from northern germany, being comprised primarily from the Angles and the Saxons ( obviously with inbreeding with the Celts, and influences from the various viking and Norman invasions..... )

The Americans were comprised initially of colonists of English, Scottish, Irish, French, Spanish, Portugese and Dutch descent. The majority of whom are not represented in the game at all.

As for the vast numbers of European civs being named, that because of the vertile lands in Europe and historical events requiring the rapid invention of peoples in those areas to survive initially. Just because it's historically accurate doesn't mean it's unfair.

So my votes -
1 : The Celts ( As much right as most of the civilizations in the game if not more )
2 : The Spanish ( Historially VERY VERY VERY important. Though unified spain is a recent development historically they have FAR more right to be in than the Americans if that was the reason they were left out. The Incan civilization was destroyed by 140 spanish troops. )
3 : The Polynesians ( Yay to a Austrilasian civ. )
4 : The Arabs ( Very important. Led historically to the requirement of the voyages of discovery which in turn led to the European discovery of America )
5 : The Mongols ( who had a MAJOR effect on Eurasian ( and consequently the rest of the worlds ) development.
6 : The Incans ( the major civilization of south america )
7 : The Vikings ( Reponsible for the development of the UK and Russia ( and consequently the rest of the world again )

As for unique units for these ( which other people seem to have forgotten )

1 : Celtic warriors? ( blue guys that shout a lot and don't experience any terrain slow down with 2 movement points? )
2 : Conquistadores? Spanish Galleons?
3 : Don't know much about the Polynesians.
4 : Mamalukes. Must have mamelukes in game!
5 : Heavy horsmen anyone? Or just really fast cavalry. Or horses without the need for horses ( ala elephant )
6 : No idea. Probably another warrioresque one.
7 : Longboat. Or beserker. Take your pick. One a superfast / large capacity ship. The other..... well just another big warrior I guess.

Remember the unique units are used to trigger the golden age which is why many of the units were chosen ( I mean the english had famous longbowmen, but the medievil times were not the golden age of their civilization.

And lets stop calling the English the British. I'm always eternally grateful to Sid Meier that he made that distinction.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

(1) Mongolians
(2) Polynesians
(3) Carthagenians
Theres a big open space in Northern Africa and it would be good to have a civ there which can challenge the Romans and the Egyptians.
(4) Incas
(5) Vikings
(6) Some civ in Nigeria or something in Western Africa

[Gangerolf]

Prediction for XP civs:

- The civ2 civs who aren't in civ3: Mongols, Celts, Vikings, Carthaginians, Spanish
- Incas
- Arabs
- A Sub-Sahara African civ (Mali, Etiopia or Swahilis)
- Polynesians