The 8th civ spot- a study of the evidence

[monkspider]

Currently we are aware of seven of the eight civs to appear in the upcoming XP.
1. Mongols
2. Spanish
3. Carthaginians
4. Celts (Gauls?! who?)
5. Ottoman Turks
6. Vikings
7. Arabs

There are number of theories on who the last civilization is, ranging from the Canadians to the Austrailians. However, in this thread I will discuss who I personally view as the three most likely candidates to gain inclusion. So I appologize if Firaxis fools all of us and the Ethiopians end up making it in. After evaluating all the evidence for each of these three civs I will then venture a hypothesis on who I feel is most likely to be our mysterious eighth civ.

As a general background to this discussion, I recemend those who haven't already, take a look at my "unlocking the secrets of the new civ select screen" thread ( Http://64.246.32.51/~admin1/forums/s...threadid=51217 ) to gain a bit of understanding on what I will be basing some of my evidence on. Now without further ado, let's get started.

First let's take a look at who is currently the most popular candidate to recieve the final civ slot. The Koreans.
+ The famous "hwacha" photograph. In a handful of websites the Koreans are mentioned as to having a "fire cartwheel" weapon known as the Hwacha. This simple fact has led many to presume the Koreans' inclusion to be virtually a sure thing.
+ The Koreans invented a number of things, including the first moveable-type printing press and in fact there is currently a movement to revise history books which say that Guttenberg was it's inventor.
+ Korea has a long history, and has one of the largest gaming markets in the world. Surely this can't escape Firaxis'
consideration.
+ The last civ has seven letters and "Koreans" is exactly seven letters.
-- The Hwacha unit, which many have touted as ironclad proof of Korea's inclusion, could easily be a part of the Feudal Japan themepack which is going to be included in PTW(http://www.civ3.com/pressrelease.cfm). In fact, all of the websites that mention the Hwacha describe it in a time Korea is at war with Japan. This certainly adds creedence to the "feudal themepack" hypothesis. It is also not impossible that the Hwacha was used by other civilizations such as China or Japan, or at least Firaxis will at least portray it as being used by those civilizations. Firaxis has never been 100% accurate with some of it's historic portrayals.
-- The negative reaction from certain elements of the Civ 3 regarding Firaxis' inclusion of "minor" civs such as the Iroquois or Zulus may be pushing Firaxis toward a policy of including only "powerhouse" civs and excluding civs which serve mainly to represent geographic regions. While I strongly disagree with this practice, the civ listing so far seems to confirm this as Firaxis' intentions. There is no South American civ or African civ in sight, and all the civs that have been confirmed are largely regarded as fairly large empires in their day and fairly well known amongst the mainstream (with Gauls being an arguable exception, but I still refuse to accept that as anything but a typo, "CELTS" on the other hand, would be well recognized amongst the masses. If for nothing else, but for all the "Celtic crosses" and so forth you see QVC) So the fact that Korean history is largely unknown in the western world may ultimately work against them, as some of the ignorant masses may decry them as a "minor" civ unworthy of inclusion.
-- Relating to my last point, the Koreans may be viewed too close(culturally and geographically) to Japan/China to be included amongst the mainstream gamers.

Let's turn now to the Hebrews, a civ whose inclusion has gained a lot of steam since the "Unlocking the secrets of the Civ Select screen" thread.
+ Certainly the Hebrews' most tangible proof is the infamous Civ Select screen photo which seems to reveal the letters "Heb" (which will be attached at the end of this message). After closely analyzing the civ select screen in the E3 PTW video, we managed to uncover where the name of last civ would actually be located. The only problem is that the picture is so distant, it's nearly impossible for the naked eye to make out what the last civ's name actually is. However an extreme close-up seems to reveal the striking likeness of the letters "Heb" which points very strongly to the Hebrews' inclusion.
+ In the same vein of the "Powerhouse Civ" theory discussed above which seemed to damn the Koreans, it also seems to greatly add to Hebrew's case. Certainly Israel is a civ that's on everyone's mind these days and is much more marketable to westerners than the Koreans, and the fact that the Arabs are included points strongly to the Hebrews being included as well. Some may even try to make political statements out of it if Firaxis included the Arabs and not the Hebrews. I think given Israel's well of support in the USA, Firaxis may not want to try this.
+ "Hebrews" also passes the seven letter test.
-- Aside from "Heb" there is no direct evidence of the Hebrews' inclusion. No city names seen on the PTW video or any known screen shot, no leader shots, etc.
-- If the Hebrews were included that would mean three more civs were to be added to the middle east region in the XP (two if they make Turkey Mediterranean) which isn't unthinkable and maybe Firaxis wanted to illustrate how crowded the middle-east is in real life, but from a gameplay-balance perspective it would little sense with no sign of any possible American civ.
-- Given the hectic state of Israel's existence through out history, some would say this would disqualify them from being classifed as an actual civ.

Let's turn to the last civ to be taken into consideration. The Inca.

+ While not actual evidence per se, the strongest case that can be made for the Inca is the fact that there is no known American civ included in the XP thus far. This simple fact would throw off Civ 3's cultural regions, which are already upset by an inproportionate number of European civs. While this is admittedly a minor feature in the grand scheme of things, one would think that Firaxis would try to keep this balanced.
+ Along with the Arabs, the Inca were mentioned in Civ 2 text files, which seems to show that Firaxis was looking at their inclusion in that game. This at least gives them a precedent of some sort.
-- This is no actual evidence of the Inca's inclusion in PTW of any sort.
-- The "powerhouse" civ theory which seemed to help the Hebrews and hinder the Koreans would doubly hinder the Incas. For better or worse, people complained about the Aztecs inclusion when Civ III came out. Perhaps Firaxis took this to heart and ruled out including the Incas in the XP. While I hope they would let these ignorant few affect them, the current civ listing seems to show that it is at least a possibility.
-- The Inca do not pass the "seven letter test" which the Koreans and Hebrews did.


In conclusion, based on a preponderence of the evidence, I believe that the 8th civ slot will go to....*drumroll please*
-
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The Hebrews!

I know this is a contraversial pick that flies in the face of many Hwacha photograph supporters. But I think based on the evidence that exists: how well known Israel is in the Western World, the fact that Firaxis is seemingly only picking "powerhouse" civs well known amongst westerners, the fact that the Arabs are also included and not including Israel may send a message that would make Firaxis unpopular amongst many American buyers, the seven letter test which Hebrews passes, and of course, the "Heb photo". I also think the Hwacha will actually turn out to be part of the feudal Japan scenario. Well, thanks for hearing me out until the end. Let's hear your thoughts on this!

[notyoueither]

I'm waiting for them to drop the bomb that everything other than Spain and Monguls is still up in the air.

Jeff is due for an appearance sometime soon.

[monkspider]

That would be absolutely horrid wouldn't it?

[civman2000]

even though I discovered the "Heb," I still have faith in firaxis o make the incas.

[Panag]

Originally posted by notyoueither
I'm waiting for them to drop the bomb that everything other than Spain and Monguls is still up in the air.

Jeff is due for an appearance sometime soon.

hi ,

and behold , out of the thunderstorm came the knight on his white horse , ... , .....

it would be nice , hmmm , then we could stop to have heart failures , .........

everyone is dying cause they aint telling us , .......
soon there is no-one left to tell , .........................

the Hebrew / Jew / Israelite , what ever one wants to call tehm would be nice , so nice for the scenario's , ........

have a nice day

[Panag]

hi ,

Monkspider , that pic , anyway of getting it bigger , ......

have a nice day

[ACooper]

I just wonder if the leader of the Koreans will be Yin26.

[Panag]

Originally posted by civman2000
even though I discovered the "Heb," I still have faith in firaxis o make the incas.

hi ,

we should ask that they put more civ's in , ......and more buildings , a library , a university but no school , ....
a police station and a courthouse , but no prison , .....
and a firestation , .....

Jeff , Gramphos went as far as 31 civ's , cant you go to at least 32 , ...... , ....please , .....

have a nice day

[Solver]

ACooper -

I'd rate the possibilities in order: Hebrews, Incans, Koreans. Incas can, though, in no way have 7 letters... Inca (4), Incans (6), but who knows what they name it. As I pointed out in one thread, they didn't use Anauak for the Aztecs either.

Hebrews are a nation that I would like to play most of all, just to lead the civilization of my nation... however I'd also like to play the Incans, as those were an intersting Civ.

As far as Korea goes, all due respect to Koreans and other Asians, I am one of the people for whom Japan and China (add the Mongols to that) are enough of Asian representatives. I do, of course, now that Japan, China and Korea are different countries and cultures, but for many Europeans it's somewhat similar. Does any Amercian know of civs other than the Americans ?

[Spiffor]

NYE :
I think Firaxis won't disclose anything unsure now. After all, they did this before shipping Civ3, and it created very much frustration. I suppose they learned from their mistakes. But it's very possible the 8th Civ is still in the air, and all our speculations and so called "evidences" are ridiculous.

[ranskaldan]

Hebrews would make an extremely crowded ME. I'd rather play the Incas.

However, there is no way that they can put in Arabs and leave out Hebrews, for the pure sake of Political Correctness, right?

[nationalist]

Where is the proof that the Arabs are included? I think that it will only be the Turks. The last two civs: Incans and Koreans

[monkspider]

The Turks and Arabs were announced in an IGN article Nat.

[nationalist]

Originally posted by monkspider
The Turks and Arabs were announced in an IGN article Nat.

Sorry MS, didn't realize that. Crowded ME on World Map, huh . I was hoping that they would add a South American Civ and another African civ (Mali). Looks like I am SOL.

[nationalist]

BTW, does anyone know if there are going to be new nationalities in PTW? Will they make the Zulus look ike Africans instead of Middle-Eastern? It would help in scenario creation, as well as give the game added realism.

[monkspider]

Maybe, I was thinking that with all the Euro civs they could be divided even further. But who knows. Hopefully the editor will have the ability to add new culture groups.

[Jon Shafer]

I still think the Hwacha image is pretty conclusive. All the other pictures of units were of UUs for other civs, why not that one as well? As everyone has said, anything is possible at this point, I just feel that an actual picture of something, released by Firaxis is very important to consider.

[Panag]

hi ,

more civs = more map , .........that is the way it should be , ......

have a nice day

[monkspider]

BTW, Panag, I am working on enlarging the "Heb" photo a little bit without distorting it too badly. I should hopefully have it finished later today.

[Jon Shafer]

20:55:13 [monkspider] Firaxis: Can you comment whether or not the Hwacha unit featured in several screenshots is part of the feudal japan theme pack?

20:55:23 [JeffreyMorrisFIRAXIS] Monk: It is not.

Hmmmmm... I think we have a winner!

[monkspider]

It ain't over yet!

00:32:18 [monkspider] Firaxis: One last question regarding the hwacha , Is it an Artillery-type unit?

00:32:25 [MikeBreitkreutzFIRAXIS] yes

This makes it hard to see the hwacha as a UU, as there is no known way for a artillery UU to be implemented (what would constitute the victory needed for a golden age, etc) It could be possible that the Hwacha is a unit usable by all between catapult and cannon and Firaxis just wanted to give it a "oriental" sounding name.

This combined with the fact Firaxis refuses to confirm any civ other than Mongols or Spanish means we are far from having an exact answer to the civs which appear in the game.

It is true though that the case for Korea has been strengthened.

[monkspider]

More just in!
[cyclotron7] Somebody above mentioned the Hwacha,and Mike said it is an artillery unit. If so, isn't it a pretty poor unit because of its inability to "win" combat, thus causing a GA? (Sorry if this has been answered before).
00:39:38 [MikeBreitkreutzFIRAXIS] cyclo: Maybe.... But there are other ways of getting a GA.
[cyclotron7] Mike: I know, but doesn't that put the Koreans at a distinct disadvatage?
00:40:52 [MikeBreitkreutzFIRAXIS] Would you say the Americans are at a disadvantage because the F-15 comes so late in the game?
00:41:44 [cyclotron7] MIKE: Well, at least the F-16 can kill fighters...
MikeBreitkreutzFIRAXIS] cyclo: I was just asking. I think it is kind of weak, myself. But I'm no designer. And I think the Hwacha is in much better shape... but then I know a few things about it that you don't .

I think it's almost safe to say the Koreans are in!

[Jon Shafer]

Like I said, I think we have a winner. Congrats to Korea.

[Solver]

Koreans are in, 100%. Firaxis confirmed.

However... I worked on the Heb photo, and it's *obvious* that the letters are there.

Here's what I think: Arabs and Ottomans haven't been confirmed. I believe the leader we've seen is a Turk one, maybe Ottoman, but this still leaves the Hebrews a place if there are no Arabs. Or maybe that leader is Arab, for political corectness, but doesn't look too historic then.

[Panag]

hi ,

maybe the "HEB" , is something to trow us of balance , .....

have a nice day

[JtheJackal]

Im so relieved. After all that I said saying the Koreans will be in, they actually are. I still wish they had the Incas though.

[kring]

Having read the 9 page chat log, I am not convinced the Koreans are in. Flawed logic would say yes, but the key is that the Firaxians never admitted the Koreans were in; nor did they admit the Hwacha was a UU. I am not saying they are not in; I just don't believe the current evidence points conclusively to them being in.

[cyclotron7] Somebody above mentioned the Hwacha,and Mike said it is an artillery unit. If so, isn't it a pretty poor unit because of its inability to "win" combat, thus causing a GA? (Sorry if this has been answered before).
00:39:38 [MikeBreitkreutzFIRAXIS] cyclo: Maybe.... But there are other ways of getting a GA. [cyclotron7] Mike: I know, but doesn't that put the Koreans at a distinct disadvatage?
00:40:52 [MikeBreitkreutzFIRAXIS] Would you say the Americans are at a disadvantage because the F-15 comes so late in the game?

Here, Mike did not confirm it was a UU; what he did was ask another question to throw people off track. Nor did he confirm the Koreans are in during his other response; he again threw people off by making a comment about how to get a GA another way. The thing to remember is that IF Koreans are in, have the Hwacha as a UU, then it would be unbalancing if their UU couldn't start a UU when all the other current UUs can. The Koreans could still be in, with the Hwacha as another arty unit available to all, if you have the necessary resource(s). The last could also be true, without the Koreans being in: a new arty unit.

I did try something today. I made Cannons and Catapults Start GA; Catapults were kept nonlethal; Cannons were made land lethal. Then I put both in a scenario as starting units, since I didn't want to wait that long to test the theory. Results:

Non lethal Catapults damaged several units, but no GA. Cannons destroyed a Babylonian Warrior; GA started. So, if Koreans are in and the Hwacha is a UU, then Lethal Bombardment would have to be enabled for it to cause a GA, as the game currently works.

The beta testers will know soon enough, but they won't be able to tell us. This sounds like it may be one of the last civs revealed since it is such a hot topic; what bettter marketing ploy than to withhold it until last?

According to the chat, some of the early units for Civ 3 didn't make the cut into the final product.

[monkspider]

That's some pretty interesting thinking my fellow Wichitan

[kring]

That's probably because semantics is one of my hobbies. I find it interesting to hear how a person says something; esp. if they really meant something totally different. A lot of what was said/not said is to throw us off whether or not Korea is/isn't in.

The playtesters will know soon enough; of course, they won't tell.

I don't know if Korea will/won't be in. Since they have already decided, anything I do won't change the outcome of in/out for Korea. I don't have a preference.

[Oerdin]

The Koreans invented a number of things, including the first moveable-type printing press and in fact there is currently a movement to revise history books which say that Guttenberg was it's inventor.

The Koreans did not invent movable type printing. Currently there is an argument in academic circles whither China or Korea where the first to invent wood block printing in the 8th century. Wood block printing differs from Guttenburg's movable type in that each page had to be carved out of a piece of wood, thus it could only be used to print a single page over and over,
while Gutenburg's movable type could be rearranged into which ever order the author wished.

For more info please read any of the following books:

Jeon, Sang-woon
509.519 C548 S
Science and Technology in Korea: Traditional Instruments and Techniques
Comprehensive survey of Korean science including information and illustrations on printing technology, moving machines and astronomical instruments.
(MIT Press, 1974)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Korea's Early Printing Culture
686.2095 K
Lavishly illustrated chronicle of printing from 8th Century woodblock printing to 17th Century wooden-type typography.
(The Organizing Committee for 1993 Year of the Book and Korean Publishers' Association, 1993)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
McMurtrie, Douglas C.
655.1 M16 B
The Book: The Story of Bookmaking and Printing
Detailed story od printing and bookmaking from paleolithic cave dwellers to the mechanical processes of early 20th Century press work.
(Oxford University Press, 1962)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Needham, Joseph
951 N
Science and Civilization in China, v.5, pt.1: Paper and Printing, by Tsien Tsuen-hsuin
Scholarly history of CHinese technology with a detailed section on printing in CHina and Korea, and an extensive bibliography.
(Cambridge University Press, 1985)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Temple, Robert
R509.51 T
The Genius of China: 3000 Years of Science, Discovery and Invention
Elaborate survey of CHinese science and technology, including an interesting chapter on the rise of printing from the 8th to 11th Centuries with phtographs of surviving documents.
(Simon & Schuster, 1986)