SMC's Math on the Franco-Apolytonian War

[Inverse Icarus]

i've just been glancing at the sav in preperation for tomorrow's turnchat, and i've decdied to share a little bit of math that i've been pondering.

NOTE: THIS IS BASED ON WHAT I KNOW RIGHT NOW. I DO NOT KNOW WHAT TASSADAR WILL DO REGUARDING TECH TRADES WITH THE FRENCH, I DO NOT KNOW BUILD QUEUES, I AM WINGING IT.

if we were to switch to warrior code right now, it would take 18 turns to get it (we lose all work on bronze working). assuming our population numbers dont change to dramatically over the next few turns, and Tassadar doesn't allow us to trade for bronze working, we have to wait 27 turns before we get warrior code, 27 turns before we can build our first archer.

in the meantime, we can still build barracks. it will take apolyton 14 turns at it's current production rate, and thebes 38, but thebes has to build it's own warrior defense, so forget about that worthless city for now.

you also have to factor in a least one settler. apolyton grows to a size 2 in 7 turns, 2 turns before we get bronze working. i dont know how long until it's a 3. the barracks will probably fit quite nicely into the mid-settler production queue, but you must remember the population will AGAIN be at a 1.

we get bronze working in 9 turns, and have 18 turns to build spearmen before we churn out archers.with a settler and barracks in the queue, they may be forcefully delayed. at the current rate (size 1 city), apolyton can build a spearman every 8 turns, meaning we could pump out 2 spearmen before we get warrior code, which is a good number for an attack force. the only problem is that we still have to figure in the settler and the barracks.

the archers will also take 9 turns to build under the current (size 1) apolyton, and hopefully by the time we have warrior code we will have already finished the settler and barracks. i'm not sure but i think we'd be in the middle of producing our first spearman.

my optimal attack force would be 6 veteran archers and 2 spearmen. i'd rather they all be veteran units, but if i had to choose units to be built in the "new city" with no barracks, it would be the spearmen, or perhaps one or two of the archers. overall, we NEED veteran attackers.

using the simple math we have, and not factoring in growth, and assumign the second city will have the same productiona s apolyton (it probably wont), and discounting thebes, as it is worthless right now, this formula works:

27 (tech) + (((6 archers + 2 spearmen) * 8 turns for each) / 2 cities)=

59 turns before an assault is possible (assuming we build the barracks while we research). and thats NOT counting the settler, movement into french territory, finding french territory, population growth / death (disease), and all sorts of other crap.

so to make a rough estimate, it's about 65 turns before my current warplan will be enacted.

and thats if everything goes according to my plan. for all i know we could get aplhabet before warrior code and set the plan back another 25+ turns.

if you see an error in my math, or want to go to the trouble of projecting city growth / new production rates, go right ahead.

[Inverse Icarus]

also, not i factored in ONE new city.

you'd have to factor in another settler, but divide by another city (3) on the final results.

perhaps we can actually find the % usefullness of a new city

i've never thought this much about civ before, but honestly, i probably would have quit this game and started over if i was playing alone

[Kingof the Apes]

Nice math. 65 turns, eek, I hope the French don't get TOO powerful

I agree, I would have started over too.

[Inverse Icarus]

Originally posted by Kingof the Apes
Nice math. 65 turns, eek, I hope the French don't get TOO powerful

I agree, I would have started over too.

yes, but we agreed nto to start over, i think graphos said "take whatever the game dishes us". so we got shafted major, we'll deal.

math might actually help us cope. as i said, we can determine if building the city is worth it, and by what %

[Switch]

Upon further scrutiny, we could finish BW in 8 turns, instead of the current 9, and still finish the warrior in 4, as it is currently: move production form the mine to the whale. We get +1 commerce, -1 shield difference from current yield, but if we change it we only better ourselves for the time being. I highly suggest that production be moved form the mine to the whale.

[notyoueither]

Well, let me see... from a 0 start, discounting pop growth for the most part, and assuming that Tech is available when needed...

w,w,se,w,sp,se,B
4,4,12,4,7,10,14... 55 turns til Vet Archers are being built. At that point, with 2 pop an Archer should come every 4 or 5 turns from Poly. Now, we are already 3 along the way to pop2, so that 12 for the first settler can be changed to 10, knocking it down to 53 turns to Vet Archers.

Red city from your diagram is founded on turn 23, I think.

It goes...
w,B
5,20... 23+25=48 turns to Vet units. Archer or Spearmen every 10 turns. This assumes no terrain improvements.

Blue city is founded on turn 43 I think.

It goes...
w,B
10,40... 43+50=93 turns to Vet units. Archer or Spearmen every 13 turns (again assuming no improvements to terrain) YUCK!

Any problems with my math?

to be continued...

[kring]

If I understand correctly, we could buy Bronzeworking from the French, but haven't? If so, why not. Every turn we save off researching it can be applied to researching another tech. Maybe I misunderstood the BW comment?

[Inverse Icarus]

Originally posted by kring
If I understand correctly, we could buy Bronzeworking from the French, but haven't? If so, why not. Every turn we save off researching it can be applied to researching another tech. Maybe I misunderstood the BW comment?

tassadar is opposed to trading with the french.

why, i dont know. something about ceremonial burial being too good of a tech to trade for bronze working... we'll see.

he said he was thinking it over.

[notyoueither]

I don't know if when we get BW matters too much. It will be a while before we need to be able to build Archers. We may be able to do it ourselves, or throw research to 0 and buy if the French or some other civ show up with Warrior Code. I don't think those are big ifs.

Apolyton with 2 citizens will greatly accelerate tech research. Putting aside Poly, the way that land jags at the end of the swamp bodes well for a larger land mass and more civs (cheaper tech purchases).

[Harovan]

Originally posted by Kingof the Apes
Nice math. 65 turns, eek, I hope the French don't get TOO powerful

I agree, I would have started over too.

65 turns from now is about 1000AD. This is too late, and the French could have grown too strong, but we have no choice. If we used the free settler at a productive spot and built a settler instead a worker to build the 3rd city near 3000BC, the strike force could be ready 1000 years earlier.

[kring]

I would respectfully disagree. If we are going to war with the French, then when we get BW will matter since the later we get it, the slower our military buildup will be. Esp. since the numbers mentioned factor not getting BW for 8-9 more turns which will slow down WC by that much longer.

At the current rate, that extra 9 turns means 65 turns, instead of 56. Considering how much the French can build in that additional 8 or 9 turns, I would advocate BW trade.
If need be, call for a poll for whether or not to trade for it.

[Harovan]

Sure we should trade for both Bronze Working and Warrior code.

[Nubclear]

If need be, call for a poll for whether or not to trade for it.

That will not be nesisary

[notyoueither]

What have you decided Tass?

BTW. I need your attention here:
http://apolyton.net/forums/showthrea...threadid=53788

Please.

[Harovan]

I also have done some math and posted it in notyoueithers thread "Case Pink". Just follow the link above.

[Panag]

hi ,

intresting Uber , and yes you have a point , ..
and before going in to battle , a least one barracks is a must , ....

have a nice day

[notyoueither]

Barracks everywhere are a must until we have Joan's surrender in our pocket.

There is no half-measure at this point.

[Timeline]

Upon reviewing this plan, I agree and support this plan. Although 65-70 turns is a long time to wait before attacking, we must start now or forever live in France's shadow.

There is no half-measure at this point.

I 100% agree. At this time I give full support to Uber for planning this war and will support him in anyway I can so long as I find his plans reasonable and promising.

Jonny and I are working on that city grid Uber and Sir Ralph proposed in the city-planner thread. Ninot and Tass are working out a tech trade for today. Eli will be busy getting thebes and our other cities prepared for war.

This government is ready to take the bold and affirmitive steps that must be done to secure our greatness.

Victory to Apolyton. ::salute::

[Vlad Antlerkov]

Uber: Yes, we need to go through with this plan. It's now or never. No half-measures-- our future is either conquest of France or nothing!

And re those statistics: