Adam Smith Foundation: Trades in the next 5 turns

Shiber · September 10, 2002, 05:25

** EDITED **
The following is my latest proposal (trade plan for 70AD). The previous plan can be found at the bottom of this post.

1. Trade horses to France for 34 gold and their WM. France's WM is otherwise worth 6 gold, so we're basically selling horses for 20 turns in exchange for 40 gold.
Pros: the plan will net us 40 gold and will probably make France less angry with us.
Cons: we'll be providing France with the ability to build Horsemen. However I don't think France is of any threat to us because they don't have iron and because they've lost most of their productive cities and nearly half of their territory and have become a feeble nation, only second to America.

2. Trade dyes to Greece for 27 gold and their WM. Greece's WM is otherwise worth 8 gold, so we're basically selling dyes for 20 turns in exchange for 35 gold.
Pros: this trade will make Greece somewhat dependant on us and they'll be less likely to declare war on us.
Cons: we will not be able to declare war on Greece for the next 20 turns since that'll consist of breaking a trade treaty with Greece and will lower our reputation. However, I think everyone agrees we don't want to do that anyway.

3. Trade dyes with Rome for their WM. Rome's WM is otherwise worth 9 gold, so we're basically selling dyes for 20 turns in exchange for 9 gold.
Pros: if we don't sell our dyes to the Romans now they will surely demand it the next turn or the turn afterwards and then we'll just lose dyes to the Romans. If we sell dyes to the Romans now we'll at least get their WM out of it, and we'll also be improving our relations with Rome (human to AI relations improve when you give the AI good deals).
Furthermore, if we trade with Rome they'll be less prune to make further demands, mostly because they won't want to declare war on us in case we refuse (thus breaking a trade treaty and lowering their reputation).
Cons: lousy trade. We don't net much gold.

4. Trade dyes with Germany next turn for (rough estimate) all their money (estimated 45 gold), 2-3 gpt and their WM. As you've noticed, we'll have a trade route with Germany next turn. Germany is the only known civ with cities (7-12 citizens) and they only have one luxury at the moment. I suspect they're in DESPERATE need for another luxury and will agree to give us all their money as well as 2 or 3 gpt for our dyes.

Notes: after we carry out this plan we will have exhausted all our trade options with dyes. However, there's another tile with dyes SE of Geofront. We should send a worker to connect it as soon as possible so we can make more trades.

Got any comments and/or suggestions?

** Previous trade plan proposal **

Greetings citizens,
In one turn we'll have a trade route with France and Greece, and in four a trade route with Rome and Russia. I suggest that we ready ourselves for this and examine possible trade options.
My suggestions are as follows:

Trade with Greece:
Greece is interested in our dyes. However, they don't have any money at the moment nor do I think they will divulge any gpt at wartime. If they don't gain enough money to justify a trade during the next five turns then don't trade our dyes to them.

Trade with France:
France is interested both in our horses and dyes. However, they have very little money and it's possible that they will not offer more money for both horses and dyes than they will offer for just dyes. Therefore I suggest that the president checks this next turn and if France will offer the same price for both commodities as the price for just one then we should only sell them dyes.
I believe they will offer all their money (I estimate it will be 27-30 gold next turn) and their WM for this deal. As you know money is very important during wartime so even though this is a crummy deal I suggest that we accept it.

Trade with Russia:
We have nothing to trade with them yet. However, when we get iron Russia will be a likely trade partner (especially because we want to strengthen the Russians so they would hold off Rome for a while).

Trade with Rome:
Rome will be interested in our dyes, but I fear they won't have much to pay for it. However, we should trade our dyes with the Romans anyway for whatever we can get out of them (a bit of gold, WM etc') because otherwise they will probably demand it from us a turn or two later.

Note about trading luxuries for tech: right now the best deal we could get for any techs will be through peace with Persia. Therefore we shouldn't try any lux./res. for tech deals (any such deals don't seem possible to me anyway).

I'd be interested to hear other people's opinions about this issue as well.

GhengisFarb™ · September 10, 2002, 09:08

I'd rather trade Horses to France first, as they could get horses from several people. Russia's the only other civ with extra dye.

Shiber · September 10, 2002, 09:24

IMHO it's best to trade our dyes to the French first. Once we finish the harbor we'll be connected to Russia through Rome and Russia will be connected to France through Rome and us and will probably offer France their own dyes (if they connect their second dyes tile by then).
I don't see Greece getting a second resource of horses anytime soon nor do I see any other civ connecting to the French anytime soon either. Rome however will be able to trade horses to France in about 20 to 30 turns (they have a horse tile just outside the borders of an unconnected fringe town) so we have to keep our eyes on them. In the mean time however we can safely assume that we'll remain the only civ able to sell horses to the French for a long while so we should keep our extra horses in their stables until France can afford them or until there's competition in the market.

GhengisFarb™ · September 10, 2002, 10:33

Either way, I think they'd pay more money for dyes than they have now. Russia and Rome will start trading with us (and France) at the same time (9 turns) since they'll be connected through the same harbor.

MrWhereItsAt · September 10, 2002, 10:39

I doubt ANY civ will have much money in the short term. For some reason whenever I have spoken with them, even France who is at peace with everyone, they don't have more than about 30g. However, if the opportunity for, say, 60g plus arises for a trade, I may well take it. Sixty gold is at least a couple more upgrades that we may badly need.

Shiber · September 10, 2002, 10:43

Quote:

Originally posted by GhengisFarb
Either way, I think they'd pay more money for dyes than they have now. Russia and Rome will start trading with us (and France) at the same time (9 turns) since they'll be connected through the same harbor.

4, actually.

Shiber · September 10, 2002, 10:45

MWIA: I fear that if the French accumulate such a sum they will use it immediately to rush some project. I suggest that as soon as you're able to trade with Frace and they can offer at least 25 gold, do it.

Donal Graeme · September 10, 2002, 13:51

Up until the late midieval period the AI does not stock up on money, instead they use it to upgrade or rush buildings. We won't want to wait enough time for them to start giving GPT in order to trade, as it will take longer than 20 turns. So get whatever money you can now, and after 20 turns, wait until they are willing to give GPT.

MrWhereItsAt · September 10, 2002, 17:14

Understood. There are no different orders in the FAM orders list this time around about trades involving our lux, so I will consider the orders from last time to stand. I will make such a deal with France should it present itself.

adaMada · September 10, 2002, 18:16

Was just in the informal chat, and was convinced that the dyes to France trade was in our best interests... it'd probably have happened anyway if I hadn't been there, but I was, so my support goes behind it. Furthermore, it got us the map of the Greek Island, which was an added bonus, saving us an additional eight gold.

All things considered, good deal

. I had reservations at first, but I'm now behind it.

-- adaMada

Shiber · September 11, 2002, 09:45

After reviewing the latest report and save I came up with this proposal for the trade plan of 70AD:

1. Trade horses to France for 34 gold and their WM. France's WM is otherwise worth 6 gold, so we're basically selling horses for 20 turns in exchange for 40 gold.
Pros: the plan will net us 40 gold and will probably make France less angry with us.
Cons: we'll be providing France with the ability to build Horsemen. However I don't think France is of any threat to us because they don't have iron and because they've lost most of their productive cities and nearly half of their territory and have become a feeble nation, only second to America.

2. Trade dyes to Greece for 27 gold and their WM. Greece's WM is otherwise worth 8 gold, so we're basically selling dyes for 20 turns in exchange for 35 gold.
Pros: this trade will make Greece somewhat dependant on us and they'll be less likely to declare war on us.
Cons: we will not be able to declare war on Greece for the next 20 turns since that'll consist of breaking a trade treaty with Greece and will lower our reputation. However, I think everyone agrees we don't want to do that anyway.

3. Trade dyes with Rome for their WM. Rome's WM is otherwise worth 9 gold, so we're basically selling dyes for 20 turns in exchange for 9 gold.
Pros: if we don't sell our dyes to the Romans now they will surely demand it the next turn or the turn afterwards and then we'll just lose dyes to the Romans. If we sell dyes to the Romans now we'll at least get their WM out of it, and we'll also be improving our relations with Rome (human to AI relations improve when you give the AI good deals).
Cons: lousy trade. We don't net much gold.

EDIT: I have also realized that if we make the trade with Rome they'll be less likely to make further demands because they won't want to go to war with us should we refuse (if they do they'll be breaking a trade treaty and ruin their reputation).

Got any comments and/or suggestions?

DAVOUT · September 11, 2002, 10:18

We have enough spare dye to make the three trades; the more important IMHO is presently the Greek deal because, unless we plan to attack them before America, it would be more comfortable not to be at war with them at the time of the second American campaign (although it is certainly not enough to prevent them to wage war if they really want to).
The weakness of this reasonning is that they will be attracted by the american wealth if they leave us alone.

Aro · September 11, 2002, 10:20

The plans seems ok, Shiber. Great job.
Btw, you aren't running for the next term, and, IMHO, you should.
And about a greek war... I agree: No way, not now!
About Rome: I don't want a war with Rome now. It's for the future...

Shiber · September 11, 2002, 10:45

Thanks Aro, but I'm afraid I'll be too busy during the next three months to serve as a minister, plus I can rarely make it to turnchats (mostly because I wake up at 5:30 in the morning local time or 3:30GMT).

Shiber · September 11, 2002, 13:47

You'll notice I updated the top post to include my latest trade plan for the year 70AD.

EDIT: and again (this time added a 4th phase involving Germany and tons of cash).

E_T · September 11, 2002, 17:40

Rome has some Ivory that we can use. We can trade Their Ivory and TM for Our Dyes, 3GPT & 45 Lytons. The TM only cost 1 Lyton and we already know where everything is external to them. We just need their internal info (unless they have traded maps with Persia, a crapshoot).

E_T

Shiber · September 11, 2002, 23:08

IMHO we don't need ivory that badly.

adaMada · September 11, 2002, 23:21

For roman ivory, we'd be taking very heavy expenses in a time where every penny counts in the war effort, and in return might not get a huge benefit.

I'd be in support of such a trade if it becomes cheeper, but listening to everyone talk, I'm starting to lean against it now -- I'd love to have it, but we're trying to maximize cash right now, and this trade isn't very cash efficent at the moment.

-- adaMada

WhiteBandit · September 12, 2002, 03:50

Aggie requested that I build a road towards Tyre to allow him to quickly rush units to the war front. I am going to grant him permission for this. But since we will have workers in the area, providing the coast is clear, I'll go ahead and connect the dyes near Geofront (plus there are even more NE of Loveshack that I will connect at a later time as well!). So we'll be absolutely CRAWLING in dyes!

adaMada · September 12, 2002, 06:46

Quote:

Originally posted by WhiteBandit
Aggie requested that I build a road towards Tyre to allow him to quickly rush units to the war front. I am going to grant him permission for this. But since we will have workers in the area, providing the coast is clear, I'll go ahead and connect the dyes near Geofront (plus there are even more NE of Loveshack that I will connect at a later time as well!). So we'll be absolutely CRAWLING in dyes!

Awsome! The more dyes we have, the more options, though I think the real reason we're not doing any more trades right now is A) a lack of good trades, and B) desire to not cut off future diplomatic options. Still, the more dyes the merrier, and it'll make dye trades seem more attractive to say the least.

-- adaMada

Shiber · September 12, 2002, 07:43

adaMada, we're not doing any of the trades I suggested? Why?

adaMada · September 12, 2002, 08:03

I haven't written up the orders yet for next turn -- when I do, I'll consider what you've said here and probably use one or two of the trades

.

For the past term, we considered it in the informal chat. No one could pay us money that was actually worth the dyes. We did take the French option, since it provided a nice amount of cash, but decided that we could do without the others. For next turn, I'll probably do something similar -- authorize certain trades if the money reaches a certain level or should the president feel that the money is needed for the war effort.

When considering these deals, I'm very willing to trade dyes away, but I'm a bit more cautious about trading away our horses for a deal that's not so great. Also, I don't want to lock us into any twenty turn deals if I think the situation might change very soon in the future, though I'm increasingly inclined to agree with you that we should take advantage of any trades we can make, considering that they only last twenty turns.

-- adaMada

Shiber · September 12, 2002, 08:08

That's good to hear. I'll be waiting for you to post the orders.

E_T · September 12, 2002, 09:39

Quote:

Originally posted by adaMada
For roman ivory, we'd be taking very heavy expenses in a time where every penny counts in the war effort, and in return might not get a huge benefit.

I'd be in support of such a trade if it becomes cheeper, but listening to everyone talk, I'm starting to lean against it now -- I'd love to have it, but we're trying to maximize cash right now, and this trade isn't very cash efficent at the moment.

-- adaMada

The problem is that we are very close to revolt in some of our larger cities. The Ivory would allow us to increase the productivity of our larger cities and/or allow us to move around vital military assets to where they might be needed without having to worry about revolt. The extra productivity WILL increase overall cash flow as more land is being worked. This should more that offset any 3GPT loss for the Ivory. It's also better to have the AI getting a few GPT than paying several GPT, they aren't as inclinded to be aggressive towords us.

E_T

MrWhereItsAt · September 12, 2002, 09:45

Now we know Uber Island is a high priority and we have a decent number of troops in Persia, we can devote the larger cities to building Settlers for a while. This solves our unhappiness problem and prepares us for taking Uber Island.

E_T · September 12, 2002, 12:39

Because we only have one city that is at 6 (apolyton), the case for Ivory isn't that great, monataryly. But there are other considerations that need to be taken into account.

If we get Ivory we can increase production in 'Poly to a max of 11 (currently at 8 because of Taxman). At one turn of 11 and the rest at 10 we can complete the Library 2 turns faster (5 turns instead of 7). Money wise, that would have us at 40+ for the first turn and 42+ for the next 5 turns (assuming the 3GPT for the Ivory). With the regular production at 10 in Poly, we can complete a settler in 3 turns instead of 4. So, do we wait 3 extra turns for the settle from 'Poly or do we use that time to be able to produce another 30 shield item within the same time frame?

E_T

Donal Graeme · September 12, 2002, 14:47

I give a big

to this trade plan!

Shiber · September 12, 2002, 14:51

Either that or we can strengthen military police in 'Poly and get the same effect. Also, there's a chance we'll take over a Persian luxury in the near future. Anyway, I'm all against spending so much money for Ivory at this moment

adaMada · September 12, 2002, 15:26

Shiber,

Looking over your plan more closely, I can say now that I really like four (if we can really get that much for it), and would consider two. I'm not all that hot on three, and would probably only consider it if they got more money, we had an emergency, or we did the ivory plan. I'd like some input as to #1, since I'm personally very cautious about trading away our only source of horses (I was once in a game where I traded away one source of iron, and then lost my connection to the other half way through a war -- it was not cool

), but it does seem to be the most profitable option.

Any thoughts?

I still don't see an orders thread, but I'll probably compile my orders sometime tonight anyway, and even though they'll be undergoing edits till the last, now would be an awsome time for any comments.

-- adaMada

Shiber · September 12, 2002, 15:46

I'm happy to hear that you like most of my plans. However I think we should do #1 and #3 as well. I'll explain why:
#3: I hate this trade. I really do. But I'm afraid we have no choice. The Romans WILL demand our dyes anyway next turn so it's either we sell them the dyes now (and because it's a good trade we'll improve our relations with the Romans, which is always a good thing) and gain gold and their WM or give them away for free the next turn (which will not get us their WM nor improved relations).
#1: There is no danger of losing our horses here. We have a resource in France and another in Mingapulco. It's impossible that we'll lose Mingapulco (unless hell freezes over and pigs fly, of course) and it's very unlikely we'll lose our French cities as well. If we do, which, I repeat, is very very unlikely IMHO we can always buy horses from another civ for a bit of gold or gpt, cry over the loss but then go on without any major losses.
However, if you think taking this minor chance isn't worth 40 gold and improved relations with the French then I completely understand. Anyway, in the end it's your call.