OFFICIAL: What to use the GL on.

UnOrthOdOx · September 17, 2002, 14:56

Options:

Build Sun Tzu
Wait and build Sistine Chapel
Wait for other reason (specify below)
Build Army
Build Forbidden Palace
Abstain (have him harvest bananas)

This poll will close in 4 days.

UnOrthOdOx · September 17, 2002, 15:02

This is in response to this thread:

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthrea...threadid=62146

Aggie admitted the other polls were unofficial, therefore and official poll should be created to interpret the will of the people.

=OttomusCeasar= · September 17, 2002, 15:04

Quote:

Originally posted by UnOrthOdOx
This poll will close in 4 days.

So, does he get to frolic with the interns for 4 days?

It seems like the poll is somewhat useless to those who want to use Ramses now.

UnOrthOdOx · September 17, 2002, 15:08

Waiting 5 turns will not make much difference. We will not lose Sun Tzu, and we only lose a REMOTE possibility of a second Leader. It is better to determine the will of the people than to procede without their voice.

notyoueither · September 17, 2002, 15:10

Unfortunately, the best solution now would be to not click 'end turn' until this poll is done. There is no other way of satisfying all parties. Which of course will annoy those who wanted to play 5 turns today.

BigFurryMonster · September 17, 2002, 15:10

Waiting is the LAST thing we'll want to do. Especially if it's because we can't decide fast enough.

There has been a lot of debate and (unofficial) polling going on, so I think a decision should be made based on these.

(what I REALLY think is to let poor Ramses decide for himself...)

adaMada · September 17, 2002, 15:11

I think, reading from the discussion in the other thread, the will of the people is Sun Tzu... it seemed to have the widest spread support, and I think if someone went through and counted statements of support, they'd find that Sun Tzu's would win.

Having said that, I think we could wait a few turns without much harm... as UnOrthO said, the chances of us getting another leader in the next turn is very remote.

-- adaMada

UnOrthOdOx · September 17, 2002, 15:11

That is possible. (though technically against the CoL)

I could petition a MOD to change it to a three day poll, even, to speed things along?

Aro · September 17, 2002, 15:36

I think it's better cancel the chat. Those barracks will help us a lot now.

DeathByTheSword · September 17, 2002, 15:42

we as one of the strongest and with the most military genuisses in our mids have only one simple thing to do. PAY TRIBUTE to the GREATEST of military minds. I hope that none of the SMC see this as a insult, the have done great jobs, but Sun Tzu will never find his math. so i say build the Sun Tzu

=OttomusCeasar= · September 17, 2002, 15:45

Quote:

Originally posted by adaMada
as UnOrthO said, the chances of us getting another leader in the next turn is very remote.

-- adaMada

We have a 33% chance during the next 5 turns.

UnOrthOdOx · September 17, 2002, 15:54

I assure you it is NOT 33%. The % is does not figure all your units in. It is 1/16 (without the epic, 1/12 with) per unit, you cannot add them up to make it higher. We will have a 1/16 chance for each of those battles. 5 you say? So we have a 5/80 chance=6.25%, not 33%.

=OttomusCeasar= · September 17, 2002, 15:58

Quote:

Originally posted by UnOrthOdOx
I assure you it is NOT 33%. The % is does not figure all your units in. It is 1/16 (without the epic, 1/12 with) per unit, you cannot add them up to make it higher. We will have a 1/16 chance for each of those battles. 5 you say? So we have a 5/80 chance=6.25%, not 33%.

Blah, I say 33%. It's not my number someone else came up with it but it supports my goals!

I think it was OPD and Aggie that came up with the 33%.

BigFurryMonster · September 17, 2002, 16:01

Actually - you can't do that math trick either. It would imply that no matter the amount of battles, the chance would be 1/16 (=5/80).

You can come up with the correct formula in the following way: every battle, the chance of NOT getting a Leader is 15/16. The chance of this occurring 5 times in a row is: (15/16)^5, or 759375/1048576 = (about) 72%. So, the chance of getting AT LEAST ONE Leader is 100% - 72% = 28%

Togas · September 17, 2002, 16:06

Quote:

Originally posted by UnOrthOdOx
I assure you it is NOT 33%. The % is does not figure all your units in. It is 1/16 (without the epic, 1/12 with) per unit, you cannot add them up to make it higher. We will have a 1/16 chance for each of those battles. 5 you say? So we have a 5/80 chance=6.25%, not 33%.

sigh...

I'm no math wiz, but this is elementary math. If the odds are 1/16, that means that you should get a GL once every 16 wins. The math works like this: let's say we get 8 wins with an elite units. 8 times the 1/16 chance --> (1/16)*(8/1) = 8/16 = 1/2.

Now I'm not sure how many wins we're going to get in the next turn, but it's certain that the more you win, the lower the odds that you get a GL.

Frankly, I'm in the VAST minority that would like to see a FP built with the GL (and I'm the only one), but I understand the point of those who want Sun Tzu NOW as opposed to later. It doesn't so much have to do with that wonder over another, it has to do with using the leader ASAP, so as to increase our chances of another appearing.

--Togas

UnOrthOdOx · September 17, 2002, 16:11

Never mind.

OPD · September 17, 2002, 16:17

DP

OPD · September 17, 2002, 16:18

I was going to do a spider diagram but they're really hard

I hate statistics

Anyway it's not as if any poll on this subject wouldn't show Zu as the winner.

=OttomusCeasar= · September 17, 2002, 16:19

Quote:

Originally posted by Togas

sigh...

I'm no math wiz, but this is elementary math. If the odds are 1/16, that means that you should get a GL once every 16 wins. The math works like this: let's say we get 8 wins with an elite units. 8 times the 1/16 chance --> (1/16)*(8/1) = 8/16 = 1/2.

Now I'm not sure how many wins we're going to get in the next turn, but it's certain that the more you win, the lower the odds that you get a GL.

Frankly, I'm in the VAST minority that would like to see a FP built with the GL (and I'm the only one), but I understand the point of those who want Sun Tzu NOW as opposed to later. It doesn't so much have to do with that wonder over another, it has to do with using the leader ASAP, so as to increase our chances of another appearing.

--Togas

Finally a voice of reason!

GodKing · September 17, 2002, 17:03

OK. I abstain.

I would personaly build an army of swords.

Remember, if we build sun tzu's, the AI will switch to building michaels chapel, and with all the shields they already have built up, we will have no chance to build it. Also, if invention becomes available prior to running out of shields (ie prior to michaels being built) then the AI will also probably get that one also. So think hard. The FP we can switch to anytime as that is a minor wonder and I wouldn't waste a GL on one unless in dire straights.

OK. I will most likely do the will of the people unless it is something stupid like a temple rush...... in which case I will order what I feel is best for our nation and hope the prez agrees enough to follow.

Shiber · September 17, 2002, 17:08

The recent events surrounding the GL debate has taught me two things:
1. None of you know math.

Just kidding.
2. When the same option wins by a significant margin in one poll and by huge margins in two other polls it means that the people support it. You do something else like waiting and you're directly disobeying the people's will.

Thud · September 17, 2002, 17:10

I demand Art of War!!! Heck, maybe if all new units are vets, we can build less new units and build PEACEFUL stuff instead!

Peace!

BUILD IT THIS TURN! Don't let bureacracy interfere!

Peace!

*This has been a public protest brought to you by the DIA*

jdd2007 · September 17, 2002, 19:42

an army is so appealing, but constructing a wonder would be a huge, even better event.

SUN TZU!

adaMada · September 17, 2002, 20:30

For everyone not in the Turnchat...

Based on the decision of the relevent ministers, a quick-poll of the people there, and the results of the poll here, there was a nearly unanimious decision to build Sun Tzu's in Ubergorsk. It has been completed, and we have it now.

More details will come later, but I didn't want to keep pepole wondering...

-- adaMada

MrWhereItsAt · September 17, 2002, 20:39

I wanted an army too, but faces with overwhelming public opinion for Sun Tzu (I still don't know why

), I decided it was the choice.

wervdon · September 17, 2002, 20:48

I don't blame you MrWhereItsAt, but I think this is probally the biggest mistake we've made in the game so far. If we don't get another leader between now and when the persian war ends or get theology from another source, then I know it is

notyoueither · September 17, 2002, 21:32

/me writes the book on how to ensure that the option you oppose gains overwhelming support.

GodKing · September 17, 2002, 21:57

NYE - can you please send me a signed copy of your book......

GhengisFarb™ · September 17, 2002, 22:07

We need to start a serious plan to get Theology so that if another leader is created we can build the Sistine Chapel. If not then I feel the next one should be used for an Army.

Robber Baron · September 17, 2002, 22:25

Quote:

Originally posted by wervdon
I don't blame you MrWhereItsAt, but I think this is probally the biggest mistake we've made in the game so far.

agreed.