The World Tomorrow

[Lord Merciless]

Originally posted by Datajack Franit
Why, I could live up to 120 years

I know, but how high is that chance?

[Skanky Burns]

Well, isn't that a cheery thought?

[ranskaldan]

everyone (well, maybe not everyone) seems to be going for this bright future with democracy and freedom sort of model.

The world is rarely perfect. Neither are representative democracy or liberalism the best possible systems that a society can have.

After all, if you ask a 19th century intellectual what a perfect world 2002 would be, he'd tell you some sort of world where the West has cleared out all the native peoples, instituted a worldwide communist society, and started genetically engineering everyone into blond blue-eyed tall athletic geniuses wearing togas and driving flying cars.

Shudder @ that.

As for the world 100 years from now,...

- US: will slowly shut down, as is inevitable for all superpowers. (They get complacent and start dozing etc, happened to China, Turkey and Britain, so...)

- Europe: wouldn't become a superpower. They're already going thru the aforementioned dozing phase.

- Japan: same as Europe

- China: don't count on democratic reforms. In 50 years it'll be the same, only richer and more powerful. Taiwan would have been soundlessly absorbed.

- India: either control the population (and get rid of that byzantine socialisto-demokratisto system), or implode.

- ME: pretty much the same. I don't know what will happen when the oil runs out though...

- Africa: heck, I really don't see anything coming for Africa. On the other hand, I'm sure the Arabs and Chinese didn't see anything coming for Europe in 1000 either.

- South America: they'll probably be the last remaining allies of America.

[Saint Marcus]

50 years: democracy will end in most countries in the world

[Paul Hanson]

3 million years: Bananas replace humans as the dominant species, colonise Mars, Venus and Mercury (or Chiquita, Peel King and Mellow Yellow, as they will be known to the Bananas).

[Odin]

Originally posted by Maestro
Hydrogen will replace fossil fuel.
This hydrogen will be produced with huge solar power stations in former OPEC countries.

Good idea.

[Starchild]

Originally posted by Odin

Quote:

quote: Originally posted by Maestro Hydrogen will replace fossil fuel. This hydrogen will be produced with huge solar power stations in former OPEC countries.

Good idea.

yes....let's trade one middle east energy cartel for another.

The beauty of hydrogen (once you get pesky things like storage and transport sorted) is that anyone with a solar panel and water can produce it. A properly built hydrogen economy would, should, be like the Interenet. Decentralised, impossible to cripple, and democratic. You could by your power off a big mainstream producer (energy ISP's) or you could produce it yourself and sell/buy to/from the grid as needed.

[Dauphin]

Originally posted by ranskaldan
After all, if you ask a 19th century intellectual what a perfect world 2002 would be, he'd tell you some sort of world where the West has cleared out all the native peoples, instituted a worldwide communist society, and started genetically engineering everyone into blond blue-eyed tall athletic geniuses wearing togas and driving flying cars.

Shudder @ that.

I doubt that many intellectuals would have envisaged that as the model society. You've selected the worst traits of various ideals.

Select some of the better ideals, such as "a chicken in every pot". (as a concept to avoid world hunger)

[ranskaldan]

Originally posted by Sagacious Dolphin


I doubt that many intellectuals would have envisaged that as the model society. You've selected the worst traits of various ideals.

Select some of the better ideals, such as "a chicken in every pot". (as a concept to avoid world hunger)

That's exactly the problem with philosophical ideals, ideals like "communism", "equality", "democracy", "capitalism", "security", etc... They all have their "worst traits", so a future society where a certain philosophy has totally triumphed across the world is hardly my idea of a perfect future. Unfortunately, many people do look forward to a "totally communistic" future, a "totally democratic" future, or other such ideals equally popular with 19th and 21st century people alike.

Now, as for "a chicken in every pot", I think it'll be great to achieve something like that, but the problem is, how? Certainly not by pursuing a certain philosophy to the end, I am sure.

[Imran Siddiqui]

In 50 years:

- Oil will be a relic of the past. Western states won't have anything that still uses oil. Hydrogen fuel cells will rule.

- The United States were stay at the same absolute power, but decline (rapidly) in relative power.

- EU will consolidate further. It will hit some growing pains in 10-20 years when attempting to widen and deepen the EU at the same time, but when that is done they will accelerate.

- China will gradually become more free market and more democratic. It will still be ruled by one party, but voting in the party will be expanded.

- India and Pakistan will end up in many 'crises', but because of the nuclear question the world will intervene preventing conflict.

- The end of reliance on oil in the West will lead to making the Middle East poor. However, before the Arab countries fall they will attempt to rally the forces against Israel. The region will move very close to war until outside intervention by NATO prevents that. Terrorism increases substantially for 10 years and then the youth of Arab states begin massive demonstrations that rock the foundations of Arab states. Democracy begins to flourish, but it is a rocky process.

- Africa gains a bit. Wars diminish in number, but the continent has been ravaged by AIDS and thus unable to make many inroads.

- Latin America gradually moves more democrat, with the US unwilling to make overt regime changes there because of increased public pressure against that mode of action.

- Russia gains by leaps and bounds, but it ruled by a succession of strong willed leaders. At times it seems that Russia will slip back into totalitarianism, but elections are still guarenteed.

- Japan eventually (5 years) moves out of its massive recession and reorganizes its country and economy in order to challenge the US and EU again.

So a multi-polar system, which dominate the UN, which gains more power, but still isn't that powerful.

[Dauphin]

I'm surprised so many people expect gradual change, I think a lot of changes in the future will make predictions about specific countries/regions positions way off the mark. I expect a few major paradigm shifts in everything from science to politics, culture to economics. Consider the effect of nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan, or a coup in China etc.. 10 years ago no-one considered terrorism or rogue nations the major world concern, 20 years ago no-one forsore the end of the cold war.

I have no idea what the world will be like in 10, 20 or 50 years. All I can predict is that human nature will not change.

[Amadan]

"Humans never solve social problems, they just outmode them by creating new ones."
-- can't remember where this is from at the moment.

Regional power blocks like the EU will continue and strengthen, if only as a responce to bullying US policy.

The middle east will continue (as it has for the past 2000 years) to be a hot-spot of war.

[Propaganda]

The USSR will reform within the next decade, and we will all live happily ever after!

[NeOmega]

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/...ls2/part02.htm

This is what the Chinese think. I tend to agree. A multipolar world in 2030 with China and America equal in power, with China Rising in power and America falling in power.

[Ethelred]

In the next twenty-five years genetic engineering will become a reality for humans to at least the degree it now is with plants.

Computers will finally reach the limit of Moore's law.

Nanotech is now in its first steps and I see no reason that it won't dovetail with genetic engineering within twenty-five years. It might take 50 though. Nanotech goes with reaching the limit of Moores Law.

Ageing will be slowed and then reversed but that might not start till the confluence of nanotech and genetic engineering happens. I may still be alive. Most of the people here on Poly will be.

Of course that would mean few would ever get to retire but if we don't overpopulate the place too badly work should be quite different than it is now.

Russia will eventually get it together again. I don't mean as the Soviet Union just their economy will recover.

Europe will continue to become a single block unless the population gets out of hand.

Africa will change eventually as nano and bio tech tranform the world economy much as computers has allready transformed the economy of the first world nations.

Of course India and Pakistan along with the Islamic fundamentalist could mess this up for everyone with a nuke or two dozen. I think the governments of India and Pakistan have finally figured out the Nukes makes things different in the Sub-Continent. Maybe not. I sure hope so because that place is a mess and its going to get worse if they don't both get a handle on things, including the population growth.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I'm surprised so many people expect gradual change

Well there have only been a few centuries where the change was rapid and quick. We've been spoiled by the 20th Century . Even in the 19th Century, you didn't have that great of a change. Sure the great powers and war tech changed, but the underlying system was basically the same.

[Boris Godunov]

Originally posted by Caesar the Great
Nuclear weapon is detonated somewhere, either in US or Europe by Muslim radicals... within 100 years the only place you'd find a Muslim is in a textbook (20 years)

There are people of Muslim faith on this board. Maybe you should be a bit more considerate with your hyperbole before posting such things? Replace "Muslim" with "Jew" and you have an offensive antisemetic comment. I see yours as just as offensive.

[Mr. President]

Don't hold your breaths on the fall of America.

[Saint Marcus]

a multi-polar system

I hope you're right. I've had enough of the bi-polar and uni-polar systems that we've seen over the last 5 decades. So China vs the USA, and the EU, Japan and perhaps Russia as powerbrokers/mediators. Shouldn't be too unstable...

[Imran Siddiqui]

I hope for a multi-polar system as well, or else it'll be China as the hegemon in 50 years .

China, US, EU will be the main power brokers. Japan and Russia will be great powers that are just below the big three. I can easily see the EU deepening to such an extent that the Security Council veto is taken from Britain and France and given to the EU as a whole and then Japan.

[Immortal Wombat]

50 years: someone else will start a "Your predictions for the future" thread on 'poly, and the over-optimistic bullshit will start anew.

[Flandrien]

Don't forget to bump this thread after 50 years.