Aidun's Opinion Poll for the Presidency

[Aidun]

I want to try to predict the outcome of the Presidential elections of term 10. Therefore I need at least 10 voters to make it a reliable prognosis.

Please vote exactly as you did in the Presidential elections. I'll try to post everyday a recent prognosis of what the outcome will be.

Let's see if it works

Question: on which candidate for the presidential elections for term 10 have you voted, or if you have not yet voited, on which candidate will you cast your vote?

Thank you all who helped me with this.

Aidun

[UnOrthOdOx]

Oh these never end good...

I'll just say this.

You are new,

Opinion polls have been looked down upon in the past.(slight understatement there) Hence we kinda stopped doing them, but no rule is against it.

Please, no one flame him like in the past....

[Aidun]

Ow I didn't know that it must have been before term 6. That was the term when I joined.

But I habven't been flamed down in the opinion poll for the razing of Frankfurt, so I hope it won't hapopen me this time


Aidun

[UnOrthOdOx]

Let's see.

It first came up in Term 2 when jdd posted an opinion poll well before the elections.

Such hatred spued from that thread that I am sure he would have been banished forever if some people had their way. Others simply feared that such a poll would make people NOT vote in the actual election (if they saw their candidate had no chance for instance) Ironically, that presidential poll had more votes than any other poll ever posted in the demogame (well over 200 last I checked...) and ended with a drop out after having been tied for several days. Good ole days of 5 day polls...

Again in term 5 or so, I think it was Arnelos that started one...not sure. It was handled more civilly, but there were a few vocalists.

[Aidun]

Well I'm interested what shall happen this time.

Aidun

[mrmitchell]

[Aidun]

The first comment .

Aidun

[notyoueither]

Very bad plan. Very, very bad plan. It will effect votes in the election poll which is active. Most democracies have rules against activities which could unduely influence electors at or near the time of voting.

I request that you ask for this to be locked, Aidun. It would be the right thing to do.

[Aidun]

Well if people don't like it, I'll do so. I thought It would be fun, like in real elections.

Aidun

[UnOrthOdOx]

NYE,

The gOdZ no longer watch this forum, and unless Thud suddenly comes around to clean up some things, since he is now prOphEt, it is unlikely such a request will actually transpire.

Aidun,

you could simply ask people to ignore this by editting your first post, though.

[Aidun]

As I stated above, I'll do so if more people oppose this.

I can always delete the first post.

Aidun

[mrmitchell]

Baaaaad idea, Aidun. Tell people to ignore it.

[Aidun]

By deleting the first post, the entire thread is being deleted...

Aidun

[Panag]

hi ,

Aro

have a nice day

[notyoueither]

The gOdZ no longer watch this forum, and unless Thud suddenly comes around to clean up some things, since he is now prOphEt, it is unlikely such a request will actually transpire.

A courteous PM to Ming usually gets the job done.

By deleting the first post, the entire thread is being deleted...

I doubt you can delete your own posts/threads after a few minutes the way Poly is set up. You could try though, assuming enough people express themselves to satisfy your threshold.

[Kloreep]

Originally posted by Aidun
But I habven't been flamed down in the opinion poll for the razing of Frankfurt, so I hope it won't hapopen me this time

It isn't opinion polls in general, just election prediction polls.

Hmm, perhaps a "this could get you flamed" section should be put in the next demogame's FAQ.

[Jon Shafer]

I remember the last time this happened...

It got ugly.

[Arnelos]

Unortho,

It was indeed me who unwittingly made the same mistake in Term 5.

Aidun,

No harm done. You did it for the exact same reason I did... it was nearly inconceivable to you that a place which presumably respects democracy and generally accepted democratic practices and freedom of speech would have such a seemingly irrational taboo concerning polling.

However, the taboo is actual not entirely irrational because of the exceedingly small size of the community, where polling is so accurate if people are honest as to be indistinguishable from an actual election (in fact, they use the same method).

Some people here additional have (I believe) an irrational hostility toward political polling in countries of millions of voters in RL as well, which I shake my head at, but I can agree with them concerning the situation here... as I said, it actually makes sense because a poll is the equivalent of an election itself and its results are publicly known in advance of the election result, far more perverting a fair election than would be possible for polling of a much larger electorate where polls (as accurate as they can be) don't enjoy the same equivalency to elections themselves.

While I might defend polling as an issue of free speech (and, strictly speaking, believe it must be so defended), because of the hostility toward the practice, you'd find your results to be extremely unreliable even you tried it... many are hostile enough to either not vote in such a poll or to vote purposely in a different manner than they would if the result "counted", making your results useless.

So, as I discovered on my own, you're better off not bothering

[Panag]

hi ,

only 9 voters , .......

have a nice day

[Aidun]

Arnelos, I wanted to try this out and see. It would have been nice for practising statistics too to see if the differences would be significant. I understand the peoples opjections to this. The groop is too small. If we would have a larger groop we could try again, but for the time being, I let it go on and I'm paying no more attention to it, like the voters too it seems.

Aidun

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Arnelos
No harm done. You did it for the exact same reason I did... it was nearly inconceivable to you that a place which presumably respects democracy and generally accepted democratic practices and freedom of speech would have such a seemingly irrational taboo concerning polling.

However, the taboo is actual not entirely irrational because of the exceedingly small size of the community, where polling is so accurate if people are honest as to be indistinguishable from an actual election (in fact, they use the same method).

Some people here additional have (I believe) an irrational hostility toward political polling in countries of millions of voters in RL as well, which I shake my head at, but I can agree with them concerning the situation here... as I said, it actually makes sense because a poll is the equivalent of an election itself and its results are publicly known in advance of the election result, far more perverting a fair election than would be possible for polling of a much larger electorate where polls (as accurate as they can be) don't enjoy the same equivalency to elections themselves.

While I might defend polling as an issue of free speech (and, strictly speaking, believe it must be so defended), because of the hostility toward the practice, you'd find your results to be extremely unreliable even you tried it... many are hostile enough to either not vote in such a poll or to vote purposely in a different manner than they would if the result "counted", making your results useless.

So, as I discovered on my own, you're better off not bothering

Sorry, you've missed the boat entirely.

The fact is that such polls, held too close to, or at the same time as the 'real' polls, are known to effect the outcome of the vote.

For instance, exit polls which are announced on election days IRL have an impact on voting after the announcement. That is why there are black outs in most real life democracies, and I doubt those black outs are regarded as irrational.

There would be no problem with holding a poll mid term, to measure support for the next election, but holding a poll while the 'real' poll is running is absurd, no matter the personal curiosity of the pollster. Actually, it's spam too, but that never seemed to stop us either.

[notyoueither]

Furthermore, the results of polls such as these are valueless, even if they were not harmful under certain circumstances, since they are self selecting polls.

Dewey beats Truman, anyone?

The only poll that counts is the official one run by the Court. No other polls of this sort should be allowed once nominations open until the official poll ends.

AAMOF, I think I shall make that a project, so that the next time someone comes along at a later date, the 'older' citizens can simply have the thread locked without having to ask the starter to respect traditions and the opinions of others.

[Aidun]

Notyoueither,

I think the authority for closing polls should not be in the hands of individual citizens, that is unequal and can lead to misuse of this authority. Better let ONLY the Prez and perhaps the VP have this authority.

Aidun

[notyoueither]

If there were a 'law' against them, then any member of the court could request a mod to lock such a thread and be right in doing so. As it is, that is not the case.

[UnOrthOdOx]

The following is the opinions of UnOrthOdOx and are in no way reflective of the thinking of the court.

While there was never a law specifically stating these are illegal, there was an Official Poll that specifically asked for permission to cunduct them and failed (Old Con, needed 2/3 vote to pass)

Whether this means that they are indeed illegal is open to interpretation.

[Sheik]

My statements do not reflect a court opinion:

This was an interesting discussion the first time. I support anyones right to create an opinion poll and am voting.

[Aidun]

Then I suggest that we can hold a half-term opinion poll. For opinion polls like that we have to create a bill that states that the nomination thread should be posted half-term and with and open for a limited amount of days. After the nomination thread closes, all candidate-officials, not only the president may start a campaign. During the campaign, polls can be held to reflect the opinion of the people during the campaign. When the elections start, any other polls than the official electionpolls that could influence the voters are forbidden.

Comments on this bill please.

Aidun

[UnOrthOdOx]

Anyone can already campaign whenever they wish.

I doubt there will be another term, and am personally against keeping the current laws in a new game. Bring it up again in the new game when the excitement of a new world has drawn in a larger crowd to discuss this, I say.