Leaders: when and why

bullen · May 6, 2003, 15:37

Hi

Is there any way to control the uprising of leaders.
or is it just a randomised thing....

They can really be an advantage in the capturing of enemy territory.

thanks

Jaybe · May 6, 2003, 15:45

Totally Random (but from Elite units only). 1/16 chance, 1/12 chance if you have built Heroic Epic small wonder.

Edit: I forget if the odds are one half of above if defending. Might be the same.

Cruddy · May 6, 2003, 16:51

Well, if you are not attacking with Elite units - you are guaranteed never to get them!

So, build up your forces to Elite level (a good use for barbs) and when you have a few, let rip at the nearest AI civ (you DON'T get GLs from barb combat). Keep a note of how many Elites have won combats, and when it get to about the 10th, you know one is due any combat.

It is possible to get one from your first Elite combat - but it's very, very rare.

Arrian · May 6, 2003, 17:21

1/16 chance of getting a leader every time you win an offensive battle with an elite unit (drops to 1/12 with the Heroic Epic).

1/32 chance of getting a leader every time you win a defensive battle with an elite unit (drops to 1/24 with the HE).

You cannot get a new leader until you use the one you have. 1 leader at a time.

A given elite unit may only produce 1 great leader. However, if that unit is upgraded (and thus returned to veteran status), it may get promoted and then produce another leader.

So, basic guidelines:

1) Elites are valueable. The more you have, the better.
2) Elite victories are desirable. The more you have, the better.

Therefore, try to use your elites as much as possible while also trying to use them in battles you're pretty sure they will win. Bombard support can help with that, by the way.

I often keep "obselete" elite units around to kill off wounded and/or obselete AI units so I have even more chances at getting leaders. A 5hp elite swordsman is usually gonna kill a 1hp (beat up) Cavalry. It's a 1/16 or 1/12 chance at a leader. So hang on to that swordsman!

-Arrian

Jaybe · May 6, 2003, 17:43

And let us not forget: While you can get an Elite fighting barbarians, you canNOT get Great Leaders fighting them!

OOPS! Cruddy already mentioned that. (just never mind).

Kuciwalker · May 6, 2003, 17:53

Cruddy - your chances of getting a GL from the 10th elite victory are no better than after the 1st. So just because a lot of elites have won without a GL, don't get your hopes up for one soon.

nbarclay · May 7, 2003, 05:17

Quote:

Originally posted by Cruddy
Well, if you are not attacking with Elite units - you are guaranteed never to get them!

So, build up your forces to Elite level (a good use for barbs) and when you have a few, let rip at the nearest AI civ (you DON'T get GLs from barb combat). Keep a note of how many Elites have won combats, and when it get to about the 10th, you know one is due any combat.

It is possible to get one from your first Elite combat - but it's very, very rare.

As skywalker alluded to, the odds of getting a leader in each elite victory are identical no matter how few or many leaders you have gotten previously. Each event is independent of the others (with the exception that you have to use one leader before you can get another).

One interesting side effect is that the odds of getting a leader in a second elite victory in a row, assuming you can use your first leader immediately, are 1/16 or 1/12. And if you do get a second leader in a row, odds are 1/16 or 1/12 of getting a third in a row. With the Heroic Epic, odds are actually 1/144 of getting two additional leaders for a total of three in a row any time you get one. If you have many elite units around, there are definite advantages to using a leader to make room for the next potential leader as long as you have something constructive for a leader to do.

Nathan

Cruddy · May 7, 2003, 13:12

Maybe. Maybe not. A lot of it depends if you have the preserve random seed turned on and how all your other combats are doing.

I've noticed that, if you tend to lose a lot, suddenly the game starts "cooking" the odds and you get a longer run of victories.

If I'm on my 10th elite combat with no GL, I know I'm past the halfway limit - so my chances are better than evens that one will show up within the next 10 elite combats.

Agreed, it maybe be possible to have none of your elite combats produce a leader. HAS THIS HAPPENED TO ANYONE EVER????????? I doubt it. It would make for a really awful game.

Ubergeek · May 7, 2003, 13:24

Oh yes, I have gone many, MANY games without seeing GL. Now, most of those games were played as a pacifist builder, only fighting when necessary, but I have gone for more than a hundred Elite victories without seeing a Leader, and there was one Huge map game where I was at war constantly from 2000 BC onward (not a single turn spent at Peace with everyone from beginning to end), fighting uncounted battles with Elites, and only got one Leader from it. It's just a matter of odds -- you get on a bad streak and your number never comes up.

On the other hand, in my last game as the Ottomans, I fought exactly seven battles with Elite Sipahis and got six GLs out of them. So maybe it evens out.

Arrian · May 7, 2003, 13:34

Damn, Ubergeek, that is some swing in luck!

-Arrian

Ubergeek · May 7, 2003, 13:39

Actually I kind of like it. I learned to play without getting GLs -- so now when I get them, they're like a gift from the Gods! I find they make things easier, for sure, but aren't necessary to my playing style.

Catt · May 7, 2003, 13:50

Quote:

Originally posted by Cruddy
Maybe. Maybe not. A lot of it depends if you have the preserve random seed turned on and how all your other combats are doing.

[. . .]

If I'm on my 10th elite combat with no GL, I know I'm past the halfway limit - so my chances are better than evens that one will show up within the next 10 elite combats.

I think you've misapplying / misunderstanding the laws of probabilities. Probability is a predictive concept -- it has no sense of history. What others were saying is that any probability is subject to the law of independent trials -- each new trial is completely independent of the previous trial. For example, a coin has a 50% chance of being heads or tails -- even if you through 50 heads in a row, the chance of tails coming up on the next throw is exactly the same as it was on the previous 50 throws -- 50% (assuming you don't have a flawed coin

). The coin has no memory. Instead, probability says that since each throw has a 50-50 chance, over the course of a large number of trials, the results should be about 50-50 -- this doesn't mean there won't be long streaks of one or the other, it just means that streaks are random, and as likely to fall one way as the other.

Take casino gambling - each roll of the dice or spin of the roulette wheel is totally independent of all previous rolls/spins. The odds of any particular outcome are fixed and known - because each roll/spin is a new trial, with no connection to any other roll/spin. Blackjack, or any other game involving a deck of cards, is different because each hand is not an independent trial. If, from one deck of cards, all four aces are played in the first hand, for the remainder of the deck you can say with certainty that there will be no blackjacks (the aces are gone until the deck is reshuffled). Each hand (other than from a new deck) is dependent on the cards played before -- they are not subject to the law of independent trials -- and so the odds (between the house and the player) change with each card played.

The Civ RNG operates under the law of independent trials - there is no memory of previous results, so each time an elite that is leader-eligible wins an offensive battle, the chances of a leader appearing are 1 in 16 (1 in 12 with the HE). These odds remain unchanged whether or not you've had 50 battles without a leader or whether you've generated 5 leaders in the last five battles.

Quote:

I've noticed that, if you tend to lose a lot, suddenly the game starts "cooking" the odds and you get a longer run of victories.

I don't think that's correct. Using the language I used above, you're saying that you believe that the RNG is not subject to the law of independent trials - that the RNG has a memory. Numerous players have tested the RNG and concluded that it is indeed random. I would bet that your observation is coincidence as opposed to a designed game function.

Preserve random seed doesn't play into your idea -- platying with PRS turned off just means that you can reload and take another shot at your 1 in 16 odds; with PRS turned on, the same "seed" is used to generate random numbers, meaning the same string of numbers is generated, meaning the same results assuming the same moves / attacks.

Catt

kring · May 7, 2003, 14:09

Mike B of Firaxis on Great Leaders

Starting with Post #37:

Quote:

Each unit can produce at most one great leader. Each time a unit is upgraded, however, it can once again produce a great leader. You can have more than one great leader per game but only one at a time.

Post #40:

Quote:

quote:
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Originally posted by Sanaz

So I think the obvious question is, can we have a change so that the Elite Unit which has created a Great Leader be somehow marked as such?
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I'll look into it.

Post #91:

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Originally posted by Loopy

This would also imply that armies (since units within can be promoted) could in theory spawn as many leaders as they have units. The limit of 1 per makes total sense given the exploit Killer identified. Preventing unloading and reloading units from armies makes sense too.

I don't know how useful knowing the actual mechanism would be to know if I'm right. Care to comment Beer?
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Units in armies cannot spawn leaders because an army is already led by the leader that created it. Also, leaders cannot be spawned from combat with barbarians (this was not changed in a patch -- it has always worked this way).

Post #94

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quote:
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Originally posted by sumthinelse

Mike, welcome back.

I am not sure exactly what this statement means, though. Does it mean:

1) That when an army wins a victory a leader can never be created as a result of such combat?

2) That when an army wins a victory it can create one leader but only one, even though the army can have more than one unit in it? I suppose that the army would have to be "elite" but I don't think I have ever seen an elite army, although I have seen armies with elite units in them.
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It means:
1) when an army wins a victory a leader can never be created as a result of such combat.

Post #98

Quote:

quote:
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Originally posted by sumthinelse

If my elite tank unit (never having created a leader before) destroys an army of horsemen in combat, can that victory spawn a leader for me?

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Yes, you can get a leader when you defeat an army in combat.

Post #113

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Originally posted by Killer

Mike B.: has there been a change since 1.16?????

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I don't believe so... I've checked all the different patch versions and the leader-generation code is the same in each one.

Post #142

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quote:
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Originally posted by sumthinelse

Mike B., is it possible for an army (not the units in it) to be promoted to elite? Never saw one.
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Armies are never promoted and do not really have an experience level. (I believe they will be stored internally as either Regualr or Veteran but it is never used for armies).

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Mike B., does it look like the odds 1/12 and 1/16 are applied under the correct conditions (before/after Heroic Epic) for generating a leader?
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Odds with Heroic Epic = 1/12
Odds without Heroic Epic = 1/16
The odds are halved for defenders (1/24 and 1/32).

Post #163

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Re: Can Blitz Units Create GLs on their 2nd attack?

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Originally posted by IDSmoker
Can units with the 'blitz' attribute (the ability to attack more than once per turn) create GLs on any attack other than their first?
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Yes.

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Can a blitz unit that gets promoted on it's first attack, create a GL on it's subsequent attacks?
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Yes.

quote:
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Originall posted by PaleHorse76
Hopefully Firaxis will make the ELITE units visually different someday.
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I'm experimenting with giving the player the option of renaming units that generate a leader.

That was done in one of the patches, so if you are patched to the latest, then you have this option.

Post #171

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Re: Thanks again

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Originally posted by sumthinelse

As some of us asked in other posts: Is it possible that it would be simpler to just make the unit name editable by the player?

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I'm trying to stay away from being able to rename units arbitrarily for a variety of reasons, the most obvious being that the size of the right-click menu becomes GIGANTIC when you add a rename option for every unit in the tile. However, when placing units with the editor, you will be able to give them a name.

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I have hacked a little with saved games, and the way it seems to work is that the name is not stored in the unit record itself, but with the record for the unit type.
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There is a name stored with the units themselves but it is currently only used for leaders.

Post #175

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quote:
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Originally posted by Cartouche Bee
When you right click on a square why can't all the units in the list that produced Great Leaders just have a star (*) beside them? No renaming and if you upgrade the unit the star disappears cause it's eligible to produce a GL again.

CB
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Good idea!

This was implemented in a later patch as well.

Post #177

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Re: Re: Re: Thanks again

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Originally posted by sumthinelse
Is it possible that we could get some solution like the * in a patch before PTW comes out? Note, I said possible, not a promise.
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Both this and the option to rename units that spawn a leader will probably be included in the editor update (though I can't make any guarantees...).

Post #200; this one by me

Quote:

Here is a game where an artillery with lethal bombard turned on creates a Leader. This was found by a player at 1BC during the 1BC June GotM.

"There's a stack of artillery in the northern part of yellow Egyptian territory. Right-click on the stack, and choose the third artillery unit from the top of the list. (So not the one that has the ring around it already.) With the chosen artillery kill the Cavalry that's near the Russian town; and Peter the Great will emerge; just like he did when I killed the Cavalry with an elite Cossack of my own. (Which is what I'll again do when I restart the turn from the autosave-)-"

Quote:

Originally posted by Ubergeek
Actually I kind of like it. I learned to play without getting GLs -- so now when I get them, they're like a gift from the Gods! I find they make things easier, for sure, but aren't necessary to my playing style.

I also have learned to play without relying on Great Leaders. I appreciate one if he shows up, but I don't count on it. I have games with several showing up during the game, and many other games where none showed up all game.

Cruddy · May 8, 2003, 07:34

Catt, I am grafteful for your explanation about probability.

The problem is - I believe Civ3 combat uses semi-independant trials, especially with regard to recent losses of important units like settlers and workers. I will have to research this and see if I can come up with something more concrete to back up my beliefs.

In the meantime, I will proceed with your explanation, as scepticism into one's research is a healthy thing. I just can't help but think it is possible to influence that RNG - I'm trying to come up with a method to do this but it's early days yet.

Catt · May 8, 2003, 13:48

Quote:

Originally posted by Cruddy
I'm trying to come up with a method to do this but it's early days yet.

Yeah - I wouldn't have a clue as to how to conduct a test with the tools we have available. I still believe that the Civ RNG is one of repeated independent trials, but I don't have simple, convincing evidence such as a statement from one of the game designers.

Catt

philler · May 20, 2003, 05:37

nobody mentioned in what proportions the militaristic trait modifies the chances of getting a GL, so I'm asking.

MrWhereItsAt · May 20, 2003, 09:11

Ahhhh, the ensemble average.... whilst odds of 1/12 look like that you can expect a GL around the time of your 12th successful Elite battle, things aren't quite that nice.

An ensemble average applies to large numbers - in solid state physics the number is ~10^23 - ten to the 23rd power, or a one followed by 23 zeros. In Civ3 who can say what sort of number scale is involved but the programmers? There may be an additional parameter besides the simple probability - one that dictates runs of good or bad luck, so to speak - a kind of standard deviation in the average of 1/12.

These are things that none of us can answer, I am afraid. Me, I just hope that every time I have an Elite battle that I will hit on the one time in millions where every battle will result in a leader. And if it doesn't, then my good luck will start with the next battle.

Epistax · May 20, 2003, 10:06

Uh doesn't that star next to Elite indicate whether it has produced a leader?

I don't know whether this is so obvious I should say it in an insulting tone, or so stupid I should whisper it and get slapped by just one person. I'm hoping for the first.

Arrian · May 20, 2003, 11:05

Yes, a unit that has produced a leader will have a * next to it (Elite* Horseman). However, if you upgrade that unit, it will return to veteran status and lose the star. It can then be promoted normally and generate another leader.

philler,

The militaristic trait has an indirect effect on leader generation. Militaristic civs get a bonus to their unit's promotion rate (I think it's double the normal rate) so they will end up with more elite units. More elites = more chances at leaders. But the actual chances of generating a leader when winning a battle with an elite unit are the same for all civs (1/16 on offense, 1/32 on defense, modified to 1/12 and 1/24 if you have the Heroic Epic).

-Arrian

philler · May 21, 2003, 05:13

ok thanks for the info Arrian

vulture · May 21, 2003, 09:04

As MWIA says (more or less), having expectations of when leaders turn up is going to be misleading most of the time. With lots of trials the average shows up quite nicely, but with only a few you can get huge swings of luck.

With a 1/16 chance of getting a leader in each elite victory, you have (from the start of the game) a (roughly) 50% chance of getting a leader in your first 11 elite wins. You have a 6.25% chance of getting one on your first win. That's the same odds as going 43 elite victories in a row without getting a single leader. Before every elite combat, remind yourself that you have as much chance of going 43 wins without a leader as you do of getting a leader with this win. It should help give you a sense of perspective.

LarryLard · May 21, 2003, 12:56

Quote:

Originally posted by Arrian
The militaristic trait has an indirect effect on leader generation. Militaristic civs get a bonus to their unit's promotion rate (I think it's double the normal rate) so they will end up with more elite units. More elites = more chances at leaders. But the actual chances of generating a leader when winning a battle with an elite unit are the same for all civs

I never knew that!

As an aside, do we have numbers for promotion probabilities, at all? Anecdotally it seems to me that conscript -> regular almost always occurs, with regular -> vet and vet -> elite happening about equally; but we all know hoe much use anecdotal evidence is

Arrian · May 21, 2003, 13:33

I THINK it goes like this (this is from memory, and quick searches here and at CFC failed):

Conscript -> Regular = 50%, 25% vs. barbs
Regular -> Veteran = 25%, 12.5% vs. barbs
Veteran -> Elite = 12.5%, 6.75% vs. barbs

Those probabilities only apply if you actually kill the opposing unit, not if it runs away. The values are doubled for militaristic civs. Additionally, any unit that wins two battles on the same turn will get an automatic promotion. This is why your regular warrior can get hit by 3 barbs and end up elite even though his promotion chances don't look nearly that good.

-Arrian

vulture · May 22, 2003, 06:20

I think the promotion odds are halved for a defender, but of course they are much more likely to win two battles in the same turn than attackers.