The truth about Iraq

[The diplomat]

We are not breeding a new generation of terrorists, as the anti-Bush folks say all the time.

Karl Zinsmeister did a poll in Iraq and his results show that contrary to what the anti-Bush folks seem to believe, Iraq is not as desperate as they say.

Here is an excerpt:

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Conducted in August, our survey was necessarily limited in scope, but it reflects a nationally representative sample of Iraqi views, as captured in four disparate cities: Basra (Iraq's second largest, home to 1.7 million people, in the far south), Mosul (third largest, far north), Kirkuk (Kurdish-influenced oil city, fourth largest) and Ramadi (a resistance hotbed in the Sunni triangle). The results show that the Iraqi public is more sensible, stable and moderate than commonly portrayed, and that Iraq is not so fanatical, or resentful of the U.S., after all. • Iraqis are optimistic. Seven out of 10 say they expect their country and their personal lives will be better five years from now. On both fronts, 32% say things will become much better. • The toughest part of reconstructing their nation, Iraqis say by 3 to 1, will be politics, not economics. They are nervous about democracy. Asked which is closer to their own view--"Democracy can work well in Iraq," or "Democracy is a Western way of doing things"--five out of 10 said democracy is Western and won't work in Iraq. One in 10 wasn't sure. And four out of 10 said democracy can work in Iraq. There were interesting divergences. Sunnis were negative on democracy by more than 2 to 1; but, critically, the majority Shiites were as likely to say democracy would work for Iraqis as not. People age 18-29 are much more rosy about democracy than other Iraqis, and women are significantly more positive than men. • Asked to name one country they would most like Iraq to model its new government on from five possibilities--neighboring, Baathist Syria; neighbor and Islamic monarchy Saudi Arabia; neighbor and Islamist republic Iran; Arab lodestar Egypt; or the U.S.--the most popular model by far was the U.S. The U.S. was preferred as a model by 37% of Iraqis selecting from those five--more than Syria, Iran and Egypt put together. Saudi Arabia was in second place at 28%. Again, there were important demographic splits. Younger adults are especially favorable toward the U.S., and Shiites are more admiring than Sunnis. Interestingly, Iraqi Shiites, coreligionists with Iranians, do not admire Iran's Islamist government; the U.S. is six times as popular with them as a model for governance.
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http://opinionjournal.com/editorial/...l?id=110003991
(may require free registration)

[reds4ever]

Jeez, thats got more holes in it than Swiss cheese

[Agathon]

Any post by the diplomat with "truth" in the title is obviously mean in jest.

[monkspider]

Originally posted by Agathon
Any post by the diplomat with "truth" in the title is obviously mean in jest.

[The diplomat]

It is scientific poll done by experts. I think it is reliable.

If you take the time to read it, I think it does show some very interesting facts about Iraq.

[The diplomat]

Originally posted by Agathon
Any post by the diplomat with "truth" in the title is obviously mean in jest.

Can't handle the truth, eh? Of course, coming from a communist, I shouldn't be surprised.

[SlowwHand]

You want an interesting fact about Iraq ?
It's way past time to start worrying over somewhere else.

[Nubclear]

Since your obviously already registered....Can you please post the contents of the ENTIRE article?

[Sandman]

Even that excerpt is full of errors. For example:

Asked which is closer to their own view--"Democracy can work well in Iraq," or "Democracy is a Western way of doing things"--five out of 10 said democracy is Western and won't work in Iraq. One in 10 wasn't sure. And four out of 10 said democracy can work in Iraq.

These two views are not mutually exclusive. I can't understand why they didn't just have 'Democracy cannot work well in Iraq'.

Asked to name one country they would most like Iraq to model its new government on from five possibilities--neighboring, Baathist Syria; neighbor and Islamic monarchy Saudi Arabia; neighbor and Islamist republic Iran; Arab lodestar Egypt; or the U.S.--the most popular model by far was the U.S. The U.S. was preferred as a model by 37% of Iraqis selecting from those five--more than Syria, Iran and Egypt put together. Saudi Arabia was in second place at 28%.

This question seems blatantly designed to railroad subjects into answering 'U.S.' The 37% is pretty measly, when that is considered, despite the flowery language. Where are the other options, most notably Turkey and European-style social democracy?

[Lincoln]

I refuse to believe any good news about Iraq. The 5 O'clock news tells me every night that there is no good news there at all. So that should settle it...

[Agathon]

Originally posted by The diplomat

Can't handle the truth, eh? Of course, coming from a communist, I shouldn't be surprised.

The truth....? We all know the truth

[The diplomat]

Originally posted by Comrade Tassadar
Since your obviously already registered....Can you please post the contents of the ENTIRE article?

Here you go:

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What Iraqis Really Think

We asked them. What they told us is largely reassuring.

BY KARL ZINSMEISTER
Wednesday, September 10, 2003 12:01 a.m. EDT

America, some say, is hobbled in its policies toward Iraq by not knowing much about what Iraqis really think. Are they on the side of radical Islamists? What kind of government would they like? What is their attitude toward the U.S.? Do the Shiites hate us? Could Iraq become another Iran under the ayatollahs? Are the people in the Sunni triangle the real problem? Up to now we've only been able to guess. We've relied on anecdotal temperature-takings of the Iraqi public, and have been at the mercy of images presented to us by the press. We all know that journalists have a bad-news bias: 10,000 schools being rehabbed isn't news; one school blowing up is a weeklong feeding frenzy. And some of us who have spent time recently in Iraq--I was an embedded reporter during the war--have been puzzled by the postwar news and media imagery, which is much more negative than what many individuals involved in reconstructing Iraq have been telling us. Well, finally we have some evidence of where the truth may lie. Working with Zogby International survey researchers, The American Enterprise magazine has conducted the first scientific poll of the Iraqi public. Given the state of the country, this was not easy. Security problems delayed our intrepid fieldworkers several times. We labored at careful translations, regional samplings and survey methods to make sure our results would accurately reflect the views of Iraq's multifarious, long-suffering people. We consulted Eastern European pollsters about the best way to elicit honest answers from those conditioned to repress their true sentiments.

Conducted in August, our survey was necessarily limited in scope, but it reflects a nationally representative sample of Iraqi views, as captured in four disparate cities: Basra (Iraq's second largest, home to 1.7 million people, in the far south), Mosul (third largest, far north), Kirkuk (Kurdish-influenced oil city, fourth largest) and Ramadi (a resistance hotbed in the Sunni triangle). The results show that the Iraqi public is more sensible, stable and moderate than commonly portrayed, and that Iraq is not so fanatical, or resentful of the U.S., after all. • Iraqis are optimistic. Seven out of 10 say they expect their country and their personal lives will be better five years from now. On both fronts, 32% say things will become much better. • The toughest part of reconstructing their nation, Iraqis say by 3 to 1, will be politics, not economics. They are nervous about democracy. Asked which is closer to their own view--"Democracy can work well in Iraq," or "Democracy is a Western way of doing things"--five out of 10 said democracy is Western and won't work in Iraq. One in 10 wasn't sure. And four out of 10 said democracy can work in Iraq. There were interesting divergences. Sunnis were negative on democracy by more than 2 to 1; but, critically, the majority Shiites were as likely to say democracy would work for Iraqis as not. People age 18-29 are much more rosy about democracy than other Iraqis, and women are significantly more positive than men. • Asked to name one country they would most like Iraq to model its new government on from five possibilities--neighboring, Baathist Syria; neighbor and Islamic monarchy Saudi Arabia; neighbor and Islamist republic Iran; Arab lodestar Egypt; or the U.S.--the most popular model by far was the U.S. The U.S. was preferred as a model by 37% of Iraqis selecting from those five--more than Syria, Iran and Egypt put together. Saudi Arabia was in second place at 28%. Again, there were important demographic splits. Younger adults are especially favorable toward the U.S., and Shiites are more admiring than Sunnis. Interestingly, Iraqi Shiites, coreligionists with Iranians, do not admire Iran's Islamist government; the U.S. is six times as popular with them as a model for governance. • Our interviewers inquired whether Iraq should have an Islamic government, or instead let all people practice their own religion. Only 33% want an Islamic government; a solid 60% say no. A vital detail: Shiites (whom Western reporters frequently portray as self-flagellating maniacs) are least receptive to the idea of an Islamic government, saying no by 66% to 27%. It is only among the minority Sunnis that there is interest in a religious state, and they are split evenly on the question. • Perhaps the strongest indication that an Islamic government won't be part of Iraq's future: The nation is thoroughly secularized. We asked how often our respondents had attended the Friday prayer over the previous month. Fully 43% said "never." It's time to scratch "Khomeini II" from the list of morbid fears. • You can also cross out "Osama II": 57% of Iraqis with an opinion have an unfavorable view of Osama bin Laden, with 41% of those saying it is a very unfavorable view. (Women are especially down on him.) Except in the Sunni triangle (where the limited support that exists for bin Laden is heavily concentrated), negative views of the al Qaeda supremo are actually quite lopsided in all parts of the country. And those opinions were collected before Iraqi police announced it was al Qaeda members who killed worshipers with a truck bomb in Najaf. • And you can write off the possibility of a Baath revival. We asked "Should Baath Party leaders who committed crimes in the past be punished, or should past actions be put behind us?" A thoroughly unforgiving Iraqi public stated by 74% to 18% that Saddam's henchmen should be punished. This new evidence on Iraqi opinion suggests the country is manageable. If the small number of militants conducting sabotage and murder inside the country can gradually be eliminated by American troops (this is already happening), then the mass of citizens living along the Tigris-Euphrates Valley are likely to make reasonably sensible use of their new freedom. "We will not forget it was the U.S. soldiers who liberated us from Saddam," said Abid Ali, an auto repair shop owner in Sadr City last month--and our research shows that he's not unrepresentative.

None of this is to suggest that the task ahead will be simple. Inchoate anxiety toward the U.S. showed up when we asked Iraqis if they thought the U.S. would help or hurt Iraq over a five-year period. By 50% to 36% they chose hurt over help. This is fairly understandable; Iraqis have just lived through a war in which Americans were (necessarily) flinging most of the ammunition. These experiences may explain why women (who are more antimilitary in all cultures) show up in our data as especially wary of the U.S. right now. War is never pleasant, though U.S. forces made heroic efforts to spare innocents in this one, as I illustrate with firsthand examples in my book about the battles. Evidence of the comparative gentleness of this war can be seen in our poll. Less than 30% of our sample of Iraqis knew or heard of anyone killed in the spring fighting. Meanwhile, fully half knew some family member, neighbor or friend who had been killed by Iraqi security forces during the years Saddam held power. Perhaps the ultimate indication of how comfortable Iraqis are with America's aims in their region came when we asked how long they would like to see American and British forces remain in their country: Six months? One year? Two years or more? Two thirds of those with an opinion urged that the coalition troops should stick around for at least another year. We're making headway in a benighted part of the world. Hang in there, America. Mr. Zinsmeister, editor in chief of The American Enterprise magazine and holder of the J.B. Fuqua chair at the American Enterprise Institute, is the author of "Boots on the Ground: A Month With the 82nd Airborne in the Battle for Iraq," just out from St. Martin's Press.

[Spiffor]

Interesting results.

Unless there is a big hole in the method (such as a way too small probe, or only geographic discrimination when determining the probe), these results suggest the Iraqi population may be ready to take care of things by itself

This is a chance for the future of Iraq. Let's just hope it won't be spoiled by too long suffering (lack of electricity and securit), otherwise many people could look for relief by extremist groups. Quick rebuild, and take the chance

[Q Classic]

http://www.arabnews.com/services/pri...%20Manipulated

[Spiffor]

This poll is doomed to be manipulated anyways. I mean, it has been made by ZOGby international

Anways, I'd like to see the whole results of this poll before judging it. As they counter-attacked The Diplomat's enthusiasm, the journalists reminded me that you can't jusge a poll unless seeing the results in their entirety.

[Q Classic]

so true. you can make statistics say anything.

[Spiffor]

Better now

[Spiffor]

What strikes me in the poll is that, despite the many Shiites interrogated, Saudi Arabia is hugely more popular than Iran. Iran is similarly expected to hurt Iraq as the US, and it is definitely not considered as a model for the political rebuilding of Iraq.

Also, there are many more people that don't do prayers than people who pray each Friday The less religious the Iraqis are, the better IMO.

[Drake Tungsten]

The fear was never of increased terrorist recruitment amongst Iraqis. It's pretty obvious that they won't hate America if we do this right; freeing people from a cruel dictator tends to gain you some goodwill amongst the population.

The real question is how the Arab population in countries other than Iraq react. They weren't freed from a totalitarian government like the Iraqis were, so it's far easier for them to focus on the negative aspects of the war and subsequent occupation. I'd be much more interested in seeing a poll covering the reaction of the average Saudi on the street to the Iraq war; they're the ones we have to worry about flying into our buildings.

[Spiffor]

Drake:
Sure, but a goodwilling Iraqi population makes the reconstruction easier.
So far, the poll doesn't really makes it possible to talk about goodwill or not. There are simply too few questions, and they do not cover all aspects of goodwill. The most interesting thing to note is the unpopularity of Iran, and the optimism that things will go better (but I guess things can't go worse than what they are today )

[Drake Tungsten]

but I guess things can't go worse than what they are today

It could definitely be worse.

[Oerdin]

Things could get much much orse very fast.

[Spiffor]

Indeed, there could be a civil war. So far it has been avoided, which is really good.

[NeOmega]

Hmm, If I were an Iraqi, I would not speak my mind to anybody if it had a negative view of the U.S. These people sometimes end up disappearing, sometimes entire towns.

"USA! Number 1!"

[Nubclear]

Hmm...While I didn't support the war, I can't say I recall entire towns disappearing after critisizing the US

[rah]

I'd be more impressed if Baghdad was one of the cities surveyed.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Comrade Tassadar
Hmm...While I didn't support the war, I can't say I recall entire towns disappearing after critisizing the US

Do they have that sort of faith in their occupiers, though? After dealing with the Hussein regime, or any other totalitarian one, I'd tend to agree with any favorable responses asked by or about whoever currently carries the guns.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by rah
I'd be more impressed if Baghdad was one of the cities surveyed.

The survey teams were too busy running for cover. "Damn, these people take 'no soliticiting' to a whole new level"

[NeOmega]

Originally posted by Comrade Tassadar
Hmm...While I didn't support the war, I can't say I recall entire towns disappearing after critisizing the US

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...aq_all_the_men

Entire villiage arrested for harboring terrorists, including 13 year old boy and 83 year old man....

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
The fear was never of increased terrorist recruitment amongst Iraqis. . . .

Whoah, an intelligent post from a conservative. He actually understands. Wow!