================================================================================ Move 1 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:..# 1 2 .*...$...$...*. 2 3 ..*...:.:...*.. 3 4 :..*...:...*..: 4 5 ....*.....*.... 5 6 .$...$...$...$. 6 7 ..:...:.:...:.. 7 8 #..:...*...:..# 8 9 ..:...:.:...:.. 9 10 .$...$...$...$. 10 11 ....*.....*.... 11 12 :..*...:...*..: 12 13 ..*...:.:...*.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 0 DFOPPT? Elise 0.0.8 dev 0 Quackle 0.97 played: FOP 8G 16 pts [DPT?] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. FOP 8G 16 pts +2.94 / 60.5% / 61.9% (3200) 002. (Keep OPT?) 1A 0 pts +3.75 / 60.3% / 61.4% (2880) 003. POP 8G 14 pts -1.91 / 58.6% / 60.4% (1060) 004. FOP 8F 16 pts -2.32 / 58.5% / 60.4% (560) 005. (Keep T?) 1A 0 pts -2.08 / 58.3% / 60.4% (480) 006. FOPPeD 8D 34 pts -4.27 / 57.5% / 59.9% (640) 007. DOP# 8G 12 pts -6.37 / 57.2% / 59.5% (160) 008. OFT 8H 12 pts -6.51 / 56.7% / 58.1% (400) 009. DOF# 8F 14 pts -7.56 / 56.5% / 56.9% (560) 010. POP 8H 14 pts -8.21 / 56.5% / 58.6% (240) 011. (Keep ?) 1A 0 pts -5.01 / 56.4% / 57.9% (240) 012. POP 8F 14 pts -6.63 / 56.2% / 55.2% (160) 013. FOPPeD 8G 30 pts -8.40 / 56.1% / 58.5% (480) 014. OFT 8F 12 pts -6.32 / 56.0% / 59.7% (160) 015. DOF# 8G 14 pts -7.94 / 55.6% / 58.5% (240) 016. OFT 8G 12 pts -9.24 / 55.4% / 57.2% (320) 017. DOF# 8H 14 pts -10.03 / 55.3% / 56.6% (640) 018. FOP 8H 16 pts -7.46 / 55.2% / 55.7% (160) 019. FOPPeD 8F 26 pts -10.22 / 54.7% / 56.5% (240) 020. FOPPeD 8E 26 pts -12.12 / 54.5% / 56.7% (400) --- 46 different candidate moves simulated / 17950 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 0.00 (0.00 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 0.00 ================================================================================ Move 1 / rack leave inference data Can't guess leave distribution -- first turn of game! ================================================================================ Move 2 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:..# 1 2 .*...$...$...*. 2 3 ..*...:.:...*.. 3 4 :..*...:...*..: 4 5 ....*.....*.... 5 6 .$...$...$...$. 6 7 ..:...:.:...:.. 7 8 #..:..FOP..:..# 8 9 ..:...:.:...:.. 9 10 .$...$...$...$. 10 11 ....*.....*.... 11 12 :..*...:...*..: 12 13 ..*...:.:...*.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 16 Elise 0.0.8 dev 0 AINRSST Elise 0.0.8 dev played: SANTIRS J2 70 pts Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] 001. STRAINS J8 70 pts -3.01 / 57.8% / 58.6% (3180) 002. INSTARS J6 70 pts -5.08 / 57.0% / 58.2% (2560) 003. INSTARS J2 70 pts -5.28 / 56.9% / 58.3% (2480) PLAYED 004. SANTIRS J2 70 pts -6.24 / 56.8% / 58.4% (2080) 005. STRAINS J2 70 pts -7.63 / 56.1% / 56.9% (880) 006. SANTIRS 9H 66 pts -11.53 / 54.4% / 55.2% (590) 007. SANTIRS J8 70 pts -11.34 / 53.6% / 55.4% (160) 008. INSTARS 9I 64 pts -17.50 / 51.7% / 50.7% (160) 009. ARSONIST H5 59 pts -18.85 / 51.0% / 52.5% (160) 010. SPIRANTS I7 63 pts -19.49 / 50.4% / 49.2% (160) 011. SPRAINTS# I7 63 pts -20.34 / 49.6% / 48.9% (160) 012. SIN 7F 12 pts -33.38 / 46.0% / 44.0% (160) 013. FOPS 8G 9 pts -35.46 / 45.2% / 44.5% (160) 014. OS H8 2 pts -35.89 / 44.3% / 43.9% (160) 015. (Keep AINRST) 1A 0 pts -34.27 / 43.8% / 45.8% (160) 016. RANIS 9F 20 pts -36.67 / 43.3% / 44.0% (160) 017. ST# J8 11 pts -39.65 / 43.2% / 43.8% (160) 018. NIS# 7F 12 pts -40.78 / 43.1% / 42.1% (160) 019. SI 9H 10 pts -38.36 / 42.7% / 43.3% (160) 020. SIN J8 14 pts -43.69 / 42.7% / 40.1% (160) --- 62 different candidate moves simulated / 18170 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 0.00 (0.00 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 1.07 (1.07 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 2 / rack leave inference data Known played 'fop' Significantly more likely than chance: ADEMNPST? More likely than chance: ADEIMNPSTV? Less likely than chance: BCFGHJKLOQRUWXYZ Much less likely than chance: FLOUWXYZ Most likely to least likely: ESANTI?DMVPRCGOBHLJKQZY[FUWX] Average opponent rack is approximately 11.4 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'B' 'C' 'D' 'E' 'G' 1x: 41.9% 1x: 5.1% 1x: 5.7% 1x: 21.2% 1x: 55.8% 1x: 5.7% 2x: 0.7% 2x: 0.4% 2x: 1.5% 2x: 0.2% 'H' 'I' 'J' 'K' 'L' 'M' 1x: 5.1% 1x: 39.3% 1x: 2.2% 1x: 1.8% 1x: 2.4% 1x: 13.0% 2x: 0.4% 2x: 0.4% 'N' 'O' 'P' 'Q' 'R' 'S' 1x: 40.2% 1x: 5.3% 1x: 9.5% 1x: 1.5% 1x: 6.6% 1x: 47.0% 2x: 1.5% 2x: 0.2% 'T' 'V' 'Y' 'Z' '?' 1x: 40.0% 1x: 10.8% 1x: 0.2% 1x: 0.4% 1x: 33.1% 2x: 0.4% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 3 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:..# 1 2 .*...$...S...*. 2 3 ..*...:.:A..*.. 3 4 :..*...:.N.*..: 4 5 ....*....T*.... 5 6 .$...$...I...$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..:..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..:...:.:...:.. 9 10 .$...$...$...$. 10 11 ....*.....*.... 11 12 :..*...:...*..: 12 13 ..*...:.:...*.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 16 ADOPTU? Elise 0.0.8 dev 70 Quackle 0.97 played: POUT I3 22 pts [AD?] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. POUT I3 22 pts -41.24 / 41.9% / 41.9% (2740) 002. UPO I2 19 pts -42.60 / 41.2% / 40.5% (1360) 003. DOUP# I3 22 pts -43.22 / 40.9% / 40.3% (1360) 004. PUNTO 4H 20 pts -45.59 / 39.8% / 40.2% (480) 005. OUPA# I1 20 pts -50.31 / 39.3% / 39.8% (160) 006. PUR 7H 15 pts -49.69 / 39.0% / 36.6% (160) 007. PUP I6 15 pts -47.27 / 39.0% / 38.6% (160) 008. POA# I3 19 pts -48.45 / 38.9% / 36.3% (160) 009. POD 7F 16 pts -49.52 / 38.7% / 37.6% (240) 010. DAP I1 18 pts -48.78 / 38.6% / 37.4% (160) 011. DURO 7H 14 pts -51.73 / 38.5% / 35.8% (160) 012. DURA 7H 14 pts -51.66 / 38.4% / 37.8% (160) 013. PO# I3 16 pts -49.67 / 38.4% / 37.5% (480) 014. ADO 9G 20 pts -52.26 / 38.3% / 37.2% (160) 015. PO# 9H 14 pts -51.07 / 38.3% / 37.7% (160) 016. DUP I6 13 pts -51.98 / 38.2% / 36.3% (240) 017. UNTO 4I 8 pts -50.61 / 38.2% / 38.3% (480) 018. APO I2 19 pts -51.47 / 38.1% / 36.6% (160) 019. TAPU# I1 20 pts -48.88 / 38.0% / 36.8% (480) 020. DUO K3 17 pts -51.67 / 37.7% / 36.9% (160) --- 76 different candidate moves simulated / 16190 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 0.00 (0.00 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 1.07 (1.07 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 3 / rack leave inference data Can't guess leave distribution -- last move was a bingo! ================================================================================ Move 4 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:..# 1 2 .*...$...S...*. 2 3 ..*...:.PA..*.. 3 4 :..*...:ON.*..: 4 5 ....*...UT*.... 5 6 .$...$..TI...$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..:..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..:...:.:...:.. 9 10 .$...$...$...$. 10 11 ....*.....*.... 11 12 :..*...:...*..: 12 13 ..*...:.:...*.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 38 Elise 0.0.8 dev 70 AAEORUX Elise 0.0.8 dev played: ROUX K3 46 pts [AAE] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. ROUX K3 46 pts +38.04 / 74.0% / 77.2% (2250) 002. AX K5 34 pts +25.42 / 69.7% / 71.9% (1280) 003. AXE K5 38 pts +25.43 / 69.7% / 73.0% (960) 004. ROUE K3 25 pts +21.21 / 68.1% / 71.4% (480) 005. AXE 9G 32 pts +20.31 / 68.0% / 70.3% (480) 006. AUA# 9G 18 pts +19.14 / 67.2% / 69.1% (160) 007. RAX 9F 26 pts +16.05 / 66.5% / 69.3% (160) 008. EXO# 9G 32 pts +14.74 / 66.3% / 69.5% (160) 009. EAU 9F 12 pts +15.54 / 66.3% / 67.2% (160) 010. ROE K3 20 pts +15.21 / 65.5% / 70.1% (160) 011. ERA 9G 18 pts +13.97 / 65.4% / 67.8% (480) 012. FEUAR G8 9 pts +14.42 / 65.3% / 68.2% (160) 013. EX K5 34 pts +14.43 / 65.1% / 68.1% (160) 014. AURAE 9C 13 pts +12.18 / 65.0% / 67.3% (160) 015. OAR 9F 12 pts +14.25 / 65.0% / 69.4% (160) 016. AERO 9F 19 pts +12.61 / 64.8% / 68.8% (240) 017. URAO# 9E 13 pts +10.80 / 64.7% / 66.5% (160) 018. AUE# 9G 18 pts +11.46 / 64.5% / 67.8% (160) 019. EAR 9F 12 pts +11.20 / 64.4% / 68.4% (160) 020. ARE 9G 18 pts +9.65 / 63.8% / 64.5% (160) --- 70 different candidate moves simulated / 13400 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 0.00 (0.00 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 1.07 (0.54 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 4 / rack leave inference data Known played 'pout' Significantly more likely than chance: BDGOTUV More likely than chance: BDGILMOTUVW Less likely than chance: ACEFHJKNQRSYZ? Much less likely than chance: JKQYZ? Most likely to least likely: EIODTALUNGVRBWMCHS?FK[JQYZ] Average opponent rack is approximately 1.7 points WORSE than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'B' 'C' 'D' 'E' 'F' 1x: 21.3% 1x: 9.7% 1x: 5.7% 1x: 24.9% 1x: 34.2% 1x: 1.3% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 0.0% 2x: 0.7% 2x: 1.8% 3x: 0.0% 'G' 'H' 'I' 'K' 'L' 'M' 1x: 14.1% 1x: 3.4% 1x: 30.5% 1x: 0.4% 1x: 16.9% 1x: 8.3% 2x: 0.5% 2x: 0.5% 2x: 0.2% 3x: 0.0% 'N' 'O' 'R' 'S' 'T' 'U' 1x: 15.5% 1x: 28.5% 1x: 10.8% 1x: 2.8% 1x: 24.6% 1x: 15.8% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 1.1% 2x: 1.6% 2x: 0.0% 3x: 0.0% 'V' 'W' '?' 1x: 13.9% 1x: 8.6% 1x: 1.5% 2x: 0.3% 2x: 0.2% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 5 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:..# 1 2 .*...$...S...*. 2 3 ..*...:.PAR.*.. 3 4 :..*...:ONO*..: 4 5 ....*...UTU.... 5 6 .$...$..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..:..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..:...:.:...:.. 9 10 .$...$...$...$. 10 11 ....*.....*.... 11 12 :..*...:...*..: 12 13 ..*...:.:...*.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 38 ADEJKY? Elise 0.0.8 dev 116 Quackle 0.97 played: JAKEY# 9C 43 pts [D?] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. JAKEY# 9C 43 pts -46.09 / 39.4% / 38.6% (2590) 002. JAY 9E 29 pts -48.36 / 38.5% / 36.6% (1550) 003. PARKY# 3I 28 pts -55.36 / 35.8% / 34.2% (480) 004. JAKs# L1 60 pts -54.68 / 35.1% / 34.1% (640) 005. KY# 9F 25 pts -57.76 / 35.1% / 33.6% (560) 006. JAKEY# 7D 31 pts -57.90 / 34.0% / 34.1% (480) 007. KYE 9F 28 pts -59.84 / 33.9% / 32.0% (160) 008. JOKY H7 18 pts -61.81 / 33.2% / 32.9% (160) 009. YE 9G 23 pts -60.88 / 32.9% / 31.3% (480) 010. DYE 9F 25 pts -60.25 / 32.8% / 30.9% (480) 011. JAY 9F 25 pts -63.51 / 32.7% / 30.4% (160) 012. JAKEY# 9D 31 pts -62.57 / 32.7% / 31.4% (480) 013. JAKE 7D 22 pts -62.20 / 32.6% / 32.2% (160) 014. JAKE 9D 22 pts -63.95 / 32.5% / 29.6% (160) 015. PARDY 3I 22 pts -63.37 / 32.5% / 31.2% (480) 016. JADE 9F 28 pts -61.94 / 32.4% / 28.9% (160) 017. YEA 9G 30 pts -61.83 / 32.1% / 33.4% (160) 018. KEY 9E 26 pts -62.21 / 32.0% / 30.4% (480) 019. JOY H7 13 pts -67.52 / 31.6% / 29.4% (160) 020. JOKE H7 15 pts -65.23 / 31.6% / 29.2% (160) --- 76 different candidate moves simulated / 15460 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 0.00 (0.00 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 1.07 (0.54 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 5 / rack leave inference data Known played 'roux' Significantly more likely than chance: ? More likely than chance: QRUZ? Less likely than chance: ABCDEFGHILMNOSTVWY Most likely to least likely: EIAONRTLGDUWHMVSBC?QZFY Average opponent rack is approximately 1.6 points WORSE than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'B' 'C' 'D' 'E' 'F' 1x: 25.6% 1x: 7.7% 1x: 7.7% 1x: 11.6% 1x: 37.6% 1x: 4.0% 2x: 2.1% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 0.3% 2x: 5.2% 3x: 0.1% 3x: 0.0% 3x: 0.2% 'G' 'H' 'I' 'L' 'M' 'N' 1x: 11.7% 1x: 7.8% 1x: 29.0% 1x: 15.3% 1x: 7.8% 1x: 18.8% 2x: 0.3% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 2.8% 2x: 0.6% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 1.0% 3x: 0.0% 3x: 0.1% 3x: 0.0% 3x: 0.0% 'O' 'Q' 'R' 'S' 'T' 'U' 1x: 18.9% 1x: 4.0% 1x: 16.0% 1x: 7.8% 1x: 15.3% 1x: 8.2% 2x: 1.0% 2x: 0.7% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 0.6% 2x: 0.1% 3x: 0.0% 3x: 0.0% 3x: 0.0% 'V' 'W' 'Y' 'Z' '?' 1x: 7.8% 1x: 7.9% 1x: 3.9% 1x: 4.0% 1x: 5.5% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 0.1% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 6 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:..# 1 2 .*...$...S...*. 2 3 ..*...:.PAR.*.. 3 4 :..*...:ONO*..: 4 5 ....*...UTU.... 5 6 .$...$..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..:..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.:...:.. 9 10 .$...$...$...$. 10 11 ....*.....*.... 11 12 :..*...:...*..: 12 13 ..*...:.:...*.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 81 Elise 0.0.8 dev 116 AAEEGOT Elise 0.0.8 dev played: TOGAE 10B 32 pts [AE] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. TOGAE 10B 32 pts +22.92 / 69.6% / 71.9% (2300) 002. GAE 10B 19 pts +18.91 / 68.0% / 70.8% (880) 003. GOA 10B 19 pts +18.01 / 67.3% / 69.8% (480) 004. TOEA 10B 23 pts +11.48 / 65.0% / 68.7% (480) 005. TOE 10B 16 pts +11.69 / 64.9% / 67.9% (480) 006. AE 10C 13 pts +10.45 / 64.7% / 67.8% (160) 007. GOE# 10B 19 pts +11.00 / 64.6% / 66.1% (480) 008. GAT 10D 19 pts +7.49 / 64.2% / 68.4% (160) 009. PARAGE# 3I 18 pts +7.41 / 64.0% / 67.4% (160) 010. GOA 10D 19 pts +8.61 / 63.8% / 66.2% (160) 011. GOE# 10D 19 pts +7.92 / 63.8% / 68.0% (160) 012. TOGA 10B 25 pts +8.09 / 63.5% / 66.9% (480) 013. OKTA# E8 16 pts +7.54 / 63.4% / 65.0% (160) 014. KAGO# E9 18 pts +5.74 / 63.4% / 64.3% (160) 015. TAE 10B 16 pts +9.27 / 63.3% / 65.7% (210) 016. AKEE E8 16 pts +4.30 / 63.2% / 63.1% (160) 017. GAT 10B 19 pts +4.24 / 63.0% / 66.4% (160) 018. KAE E9 14 pts +6.24 / 63.0% / 63.9% (160) 019. EAT 10D 17 pts +5.65 / 62.6% / 65.7% (480) 020. KETA# E9 16 pts +3.33 / 62.4% / 66.5% (160) --- 65 different candidate moves simulated / 13870 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 0.00 (0.00 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 1.07 (0.36 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 6 / rack leave inference data Known played 'jakey' More likely than chance: ABCDEFGHILMNOQRTUVWYZ Less likely than chance: S? Much less likely than chance: S Most likely to least likely: EIANORDLTCBGHMUVW?FQYZS Average opponent rack is approximately 0.3 points WORSE than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'B' 'C' 'D' 'E' 'F' 1x: 14.6% 1x: 5.8% 1x: 6.0% 1x: 11.4% 1x: 25.4% 1x: 2.9% 2x: 0.4% 2x: 0.0% 2x: 0.0% 2x: 0.3% 2x: 1.6% 'G' 'H' 'I' 'L' 'M' 'N' 1x: 5.8% 1x: 5.8% 1x: 22.8% 1x: 11.4% 1x: 5.8% 1x: 14.6% 2x: 0.0% 2x: 0.0% 2x: 1.3% 2x: 0.3% 2x: 0.0% 2x: 0.4% 'O' 'Q' 'R' 'S' 'T' 'U' 1x: 11.7% 1x: 2.9% 1x: 11.7% 1x: 0.2% 1x: 8.9% 1x: 5.8% 2x: 0.3% 2x: 0.3% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 0.0% 'V' 'W' 'Y' 'Z' '?' 1x: 5.8% 1x: 5.8% 1x: 2.9% 1x: 2.9% 1x: 3.8% 2x: 0.0% 2x: 0.0% 2x: 0.0% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 7 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:..# 1 2 .*...$...S...*. 2 3 ..*...:.PAR.*.. 3 4 :..*...:ONO*..: 4 5 ....*...UTU.... 5 6 .$...$..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..:..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.:...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE...$...$. 10 11 ....*.....*.... 11 12 :..*...:...*..: 12 13 ..*...:.:...*.. 13 14 .*...$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 81 DGGHIN? Elise 0.0.8 dev 148 Quackle 0.97 played: HAGGING D8 34 pts [D?] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. HAGGING D8 34 pts -46.90 / 38.1% / 37.4% (1610) 002. GoING 11C 43 pts -49.87 / 36.4% / 35.1% (1370) 003. HAG D8 11 pts -51.36 / 36.2% / 35.7% (480) 004. GaIN 11C 39 pts -51.17 / 35.9% / 35.4% (480) 005. DAGGING# D8 26 pts -53.84 / 35.6% / 34.2% (480) 006. HAGG# D8 13 pts -53.00 / 35.1% / 33.5% (480) 007. DIG 11A 18 pts -55.84 / 34.0% / 32.6% (160) 008. KANG# E9 18 pts -60.33 / 33.3% / 30.6% (160) 009. ING# 11E 25 pts -59.38 / 32.7% / 30.8% (480) 010. GIG 11A 18 pts -63.99 / 31.1% / 27.1% (160) 011. PARGING 3I 22 pts -65.61 / 31.0% / 26.4% (160) 012. NIKAH# E7 24 pts -65.45 / 30.7% / 28.0% (160) 013. KAING# E9 20 pts -61.91 / 30.3% / 28.5% (160) 014. DAG D8 7 pts -66.01 / 30.2% / 27.6% (160) 015. KAuGH# E9 24 pts -68.60 / 30.0% / 26.6% (160) 016. JOG C9 11 pts -69.03 / 29.9% / 25.9% (160) 017. HAGGs# D8 26 pts -68.43 / 29.6% / 27.3% (160) 018. HAGGeD D8 30 pts -67.34 / 29.4% / 26.2% (160) 019. THING B10 18 pts -69.93 / 29.4% / 27.6% (160) 020. HAGGlING D8 38 pts -66.53 / 29.3% / 29.6% (160) --- 59 different candidate moves simulated / 11570 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 0.00 (0.00 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 1.07 (0.36 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 7 / rack leave inference data Known played 'togae' More likely than chance: ACDEOTUV Less likely than chance: BFHILMNQRSWYZ? Much less likely than chance: Z Most likely to least likely: EAIOLNRDTUVCWBSMQYHF?Z Average opponent rack is approximately 1.7 points WORSE than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'B' 'C' 'D' 'E' 'F' 1x: 22.1% 1x: 4.9% 1x: 6.3% 1x: 9.7% 1x: 35.5% 1x: 1.8% 2x: 0.9% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 2.7% 'H' 'I' 'L' 'M' 'N' 'O' 1x: 2.6% 1x: 20.4% 1x: 10.7% 1x: 4.0% 1x: 10.4% 1x: 14.9% 2x: 1.3% 2x: 0.4% 'Q' 'R' 'S' 'T' 'U' 'V' 1x: 3.0% 1x: 10.0% 1x: 4.5% 1x: 9.3% 1x: 7.0% 1x: 6.9% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 0.1% 'W' 'Y' 'Z' '?' 1x: 5.9% 1x: 3.0% 1x: 0.1% 1x: 1.2% 2x: 0.1% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 8 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:..# 1 2 .*...$...S...*. 2 3 ..*...:.PAR.*.. 3 4 :..*...:ONO*..: 4 5 ....*...UTU.... 5 6 .$...$..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.:...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE...$...$. 10 11 ...G*.....*.... 11 12 :..I...:...*..: 12 13 ..*N..:.:...*.. 13 14 .*.G.$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 115 Elise 0.0.8 dev 148 AAAENRS Elise 0.0.8 dev played: SARGE 11A 38 pts [AAN] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. SARGE 11A 38 pts +30.52 / 73.6% / 77.6% (2160) 002. GENA# 11D 27 pts +30.91 / 73.2% / 77.3% (2140) 003. AA C12 10 pts +28.55 / 72.9% / 76.2% (1280) 004. AA C13 11 pts +26.13 / 72.1% / 75.2% (480) 005. ANA 13C 6 pts +26.60 / 71.8% / 75.8% (560) 006. GEN 11D 25 pts +24.66 / 71.4% / 75.1% (320) 007. ANAS L1 24 pts +24.15 / 71.3% / 75.0% (820) 008. ANAN# 13C 8 pts +26.96 / 71.3% / 74.3% (160) 009. ANANA# 13C 12 pts +23.51 / 71.1% / 76.0% (480) 010. AAS L2 20 pts +20.76 / 70.8% / 74.1% (160) 011. ANGA 14B 10 pts +20.68 / 70.4% / 74.6% (240) 012. EARS L1 24 pts +21.36 / 70.3% / 72.7% (240) 013. AA L2 8 pts +23.63 / 70.3% / 74.7% (480) 014. ARNA# 13B 8 pts +20.77 / 70.2% / 73.3% (240) 015. GENAS# 11D 29 pts +21.76 / 70.1% / 72.2% (160) 016. ERGS 11B 36 pts +19.24 / 70.1% / 74.2% (160) 017. ANES L1 24 pts +19.16 / 70.0% / 71.3% (160) 018. NANA 13D 5 pts +21.15 / 69.9% / 73.1% (480) 019. AA 11A 4 pts +19.18 / 69.9% / 72.8% (160) 020. NANA 13B 8 pts +19.17 / 69.7% / 74.4% (160) --- 76 different candidate moves simulated / 18560 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 0.00 (0.00 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 1.07 (0.27 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 8 / rack leave inference data Known played 'hging' More likely than chance: CDEFHLMQRSV Less likely than chance: ABINOTUWYZ? Much less likely than chance: Z Most likely to least likely: EIDLORTNCMVABUW?FHQSY[Z] Average opponent rack is approximately 0.1 points WORSE than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'B' 'C' 'D' 'E' 'F' 1x: 6.6% 1x: 6.5% 1x: 7.7% 1x: 15.1% 1x: 28.9% 1x: 3.9% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 0.4% 2x: 2.4% 'H' 'I' 'L' 'M' 'N' 'O' 1x: 3.9% 1x: 22.0% 1x: 14.1% 1x: 7.7% 1x: 9.0% 1x: 12.5% 2x: 1.4% 2x: 0.4% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 0.4% 'Q' 'R' 'S' 'T' 'U' 'V' 1x: 3.9% 1x: 11.5% 1x: 3.9% 1x: 9.6% 1x: 6.2% 1x: 7.7% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 0.1% 'W' 'Y' '?' 1x: 6.0% 1x: 2.7% 1x: 4.6% 2x: 0.1% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 9 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:..# 1 2 .*...$...S...*. 2 3 ..*...:.PAR.*.. 3 4 :..*...:ONO*..: 4 5 ....*...UTU.... 5 6 .$...$..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.:...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE...$...$. 10 11 SARGE.....*.... 11 12 :..I...:...*..: 12 13 ..*N..:.:...*.. 13 14 .*.G.$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 115 DEILNV? Elise 0.0.8 dev 186 Quackle 0.97 played: VILDNEsS# 2C 71 pts Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. VILDNEsS# 2C 71 pts -35.87 / 42.2% / 42.1% (4090) 002. SLIVE# A11 27 pts -45.55 / 38.2% / 36.3% (1680) 003. VIG 14B 14 pts -49.35 / 36.2% / 34.2% (480) 004. VIN# 13B 12 pts -52.67 / 34.4% / 32.8% (480) 005. SDEIN# A11 24 pts -60.47 / 34.1% / 29.1% (160) 006. VENIN 13B 16 pts -56.51 / 33.4% / 31.9% (480) 007. VINED 13B 18 pts -60.42 / 32.9% / 29.1% (160) 008. VEND 13B 16 pts -58.06 / 32.7% / 30.8% (160) 009. TAV B10 6 pts -55.58 / 32.6% / 31.5% (480) 010. PARVE 3I 20 pts -57.26 / 32.5% / 31.0% (480) 011. SILED# A11 21 pts -59.16 / 32.2% / 28.6% (160) 012. SINED# A11 21 pts -62.71 / 32.1% / 27.2% (160) 013. ID 12A 11 pts -65.08 / 31.1% / 27.1% (160) 014. VEG 14B 14 pts -60.46 / 31.0% / 28.2% (160) 015. LIND# 13B 10 pts -63.81 / 29.7% / 24.6% (160) 016. LINN 13A 8 pts -66.64 / 29.7% / 26.5% (160) 017. SNIDE A11 21 pts -65.61 / 29.1% / 26.6% (160) 018. VEIN 13A 14 pts -68.57 / 29.1% / 27.7% (160) 019. TAN B10 3 pts -65.04 / 28.6% / 25.4% (160) 020. PARED 3I 16 pts -72.37 / 28.1% / 22.6% (160) --- 63 different candidate moves simulated / 14690 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 0.00 (0.00 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 1.07 (0.27 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 9 / rack leave inference data Known played 'sare' Significantly more likely than chance: AOQUWY More likely than chance: AEFHOQRUWY Less likely than chance: BCDILMNSTVZ? Much less likely than chance: TZ? Most likely to least likely: EAOIRWUQYNBDLCFHSMTVZ[?] Average opponent rack is approximately 3.3 points WORSE than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'B' 'C' 'D' 'E' 'F' 1x: 43.4% 1x: 8.4% 1x: 7.2% 1x: 8.3% 1x: 46.3% 1x: 5.8% 2x: 4.9% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 0.3% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 9.3% 3x: 0.1% 3x: 0.6% 'H' 'I' 'L' 'M' 'N' 'O' 1x: 5.6% 1x: 24.2% 1x: 7.3% 1x: 5.2% 1x: 8.7% 1x: 29.5% 2x: 3.5% 2x: 0.3% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 0.4% 2x: 2.5% 3x: 0.2% 3x: 0.0% 3x: 0.0% 'Q' 'R' 'S' 'T' 'U' 'V' 1x: 9.0% 1x: 19.1% 1x: 5.2% 1x: 3.2% 1x: 13.3% 1x: 3.2% 2x: 1.3% 2x: 0.0% 2x: 0.4% 3x: 0.0% 'W' 'Y' 'Z' 1x: 13.4% 1x: 8.9% 1x: 0.2% 2x: 0.4% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 10 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:...#...:..# 1 2 .*VILDNEsS...*. 2 3 ..*...:.PAR.*.. 3 4 :..*...:ONO*..: 4 5 ....*...UTU.... 5 6 .$...$..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.:...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE...$...$. 10 11 SARGE.....*.... 11 12 :..I...:...*..: 12 13 ..*N..:.:...*.. 13 14 .*.G.$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 186 Elise 0.0.8 dev 186 AADHINO Elise 0.0.8 dev played: AHA 1G 42 pts [DINO] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. AHA 1G 42 pts +3.36 / 63.0% / 67.0% (1840) 002. HA 1H 37 pts +1.04 / 61.8% / 64.6% (1280) 003. AIDA# 1F 36 pts -0.12 / 61.7% / 65.1% (2080) 004. SHAND# A11 39 pts -0.88 / 61.3% / 65.4% (480) 005. AH 1G 32 pts -2.28 / 60.7% / 61.2% (480) 006. AAH 1F 38 pts -1.50 / 60.5% / 62.8% (880) 007. ODA 1G 30 pts -4.08 / 59.0% / 61.4% (480) 008. HAO 1D 24 pts -8.60 / 57.8% / 59.4% (160) 009. HA 1D 20 pts -8.81 / 57.3% / 58.0% (160) 010. SIDHA# A11 30 pts -7.46 / 57.2% / 60.5% (160) 011. AIA# 1F 20 pts -13.09 / 56.2% / 55.7% (160) 012. VAIN C2 14 pts -14.29 / 56.0% / 57.0% (160) 013. HO 12A 21 pts -12.57 / 55.9% / 58.9% (160) 014. DONAH# 13B 18 pts -10.89 / 55.7% / 56.7% (160) 015. AIN 1F 20 pts -15.07 / 55.4% / 56.5% (160) 016. AD 1G 20 pts -10.57 / 55.3% / 57.1% (160) 017. VOID C2 16 pts -10.28 / 55.2% / 56.3% (160) 018. LADINO E2 14 pts -12.19 / 55.1% / 56.5% (160) 019. AVOID C1 18 pts -13.51 / 55.0% / 57.3% (160) 020. ION 1F 20 pts -13.21 / 55.0% / 55.0% (160) --- 69 different candidate moves simulated / 15040 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 0.00 (0.00 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 1.07 (0.21 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 10 / rack leave inference data Can't guess leave distribution -- last move was a bingo! ================================================================================ Move 11 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:..AHA..:..# 1 2 .*VILDNEsS...*. 2 3 ..*...:.PAR.*.. 3 4 :..*...:ONO*..: 4 5 ....*...UTU.... 5 6 .$...$..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.:...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE...$...$. 10 11 SARGE.....*.... 11 12 :..I...:...*..: 12 13 ..*N..:.:...*.. 13 14 .*.G.$...$...*. 14 15 #..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 186 ACDEMOR Elise 0.0.8 dev 228 Quackle 0.97 played: SCRAM A11 36 pts [DEO] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. SCRAM A11 36 pts -38.52 / 40.4% / 39.9% (2500) 002. SCROD A11 33 pts -39.94 / 39.7% / 39.9% (1760) 003. SCRAE# A11 30 pts -48.28 / 37.2% / 37.0% (160) 004. SCORE A11 30 pts -43.26 / 37.0% / 38.0% (480) 005. SMORE# A11 30 pts -45.42 / 36.1% / 36.5% (480) 006. MICA D1 22 pts -49.89 / 36.0% / 32.0% (160) 007. MICRO D1 24 pts -46.91 / 35.8% / 32.8% (240) 008. CONDER# 13B 20 pts -49.31 / 35.7% / 32.2% (160) 009. VAC C2 16 pts -50.54 / 35.6% / 32.9% (160) 010. MICO# D1 22 pts -48.51 / 35.4% / 34.4% (480) 011. MONOAO# 4H 22 pts -49.61 / 35.3% / 33.6% (160) 012. DICER D1 20 pts -52.01 / 34.6% / 33.7% (160) 013. CIDE# D1 20 pts -49.24 / 34.4% / 31.5% (160) 014. RANCED# 13B 22 pts -54.31 / 34.4% / 28.5% (160) 015. MICE D1 22 pts -51.47 / 34.1% / 33.3% (160) 016. SMEAR A11 30 pts -49.85 / 34.0% / 35.3% (160) 017. COMFY G5 18 pts -53.85 / 33.7% / 29.2% (160) 018. CADGER 14A 24 pts -51.29 / 33.6% / 31.3% (160) 019. ANCOME# 13C 26 pts -55.18 / 33.4% / 29.3% (160) 020. CLAMOR E1 20 pts -52.54 / 33.4% / 29.3% (160) --- 68 different candidate moves simulated / 13010 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 0.00 (0.00 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 1.07 (0.21 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 11 / rack leave inference data Known played 'aha' Significantly more likely than chance: DORSUV More likely than chance: ADEINORSTUV Less likely than chance: BCFLMQWYZ? Much less likely than chance: W Most likely to least likely: EIONRTSUDALVBFQCM?WYZ Average opponent rack is approximately 0.1 points WORSE than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'B' 'C' 'D' 'E' 'F' 1x: 20.0% 1x: 6.3% 1x: 5.0% 1x: 21.9% 1x: 50.6% 1x: 6.3% 2x: 0.6% 2x: 10.0% 3x: 1.3% 'I' 'L' 'M' 'N' 'O' 'Q' 1x: 44.4% 1x: 18.8% 1x: 4.4% 1x: 30.0% 1x: 31.3% 1x: 6.3% 2x: 5.6% 2x: 0.6% 2x: 2.5% 2x: 3.8% 3x: 0.6% 'R' 'S' 'T' 'U' 'V' 'W' 1x: 26.9% 1x: 23.8% 1x: 25.6% 1x: 23.1% 1x: 11.3% 1x: 3.8% 2x: 1.3% 2x: 3.8% 'Y' 'Z' '?' 1x: 3.1% 1x: 3.1% 1x: 4.4% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 12 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:..AHA..:..# 1 2 .*VILDNEsS...*. 2 3 ..*...:.PAR.*.. 3 4 :..*...:ONO*..: 4 5 ....*...UTU.... 5 6 .$...$..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.:...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE...$...$. 10 11 SARGE.....*.... 11 12 C..I...:...*..: 12 13 R.*N..:.:...*.. 13 14 A*.G.$...$...*. 14 15 M..:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 222 Elise 0.0.8 dev 228 DEEINOY Elise 0.0.8 dev played: EYE B13 28 pts [DINO] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. EYE B13 28 pts +1.20 / 62.5% / 66.2% (2280) 002. YINDIE# D1 28 pts +0.17 / 62.4% / 66.2% (2130) 003. YE B14 24 pts -1.48 / 60.5% / 63.2% (480) 004. YO B14 24 pts -3.61 / 60.1% / 62.6% (480) 005. VOIDEE# C2 22 pts -3.49 / 59.9% / 63.3% (480) 006. NIED# 3D 20 pts -8.24 / 59.0% / 62.2% (160) 007. DOEN# 3D 18 pts -6.10 / 58.7% / 62.0% (560) 008. VINED C2 18 pts -5.87 / 58.5% / 62.4% (480) 009. RONNIE# 13A 12 pts -8.18 / 58.4% / 61.5% (240) 010. VEINED C2 24 pts -5.56 / 58.4% / 61.7% (480) 011. NY# B14 21 pts -7.22 / 58.0% / 61.9% (160) 012. INDIE D2 12 pts -11.26 / 57.7% / 59.3% (160) 013. OY 3F 22 pts -7.03 / 57.4% / 60.2% (480) 014. ROYNED# 13A 20 pts -8.56 / 57.1% / 61.6% (560) 015. ONY# 13C 12 pts -11.39 / 57.1% / 56.5% (160) 016. VEINY C2 22 pts -9.73 / 57.0% / 59.4% (240) 017. ROINED# 13A 14 pts -7.78 / 57.0% / 56.9% (160) 018. OVENED# C1 20 pts -10.59 / 56.7% / 57.2% (160) 019. PARODY 3I 24 pts -10.51 / 56.6% / 58.5% (160) 020. VINE C2 14 pts -12.34 / 56.5% / 58.7% (160) --- 68 different candidate moves simulated / 15530 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 0.00 (0.00 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 1.07 (0.18 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 12 / rack leave inference data Known played 'cram' Significantly more likely than chance: MV More likely than chance: ABCDFLMNQRTV Less likely than chance: EIOSUWZ? Much less likely than chance: Z Most likely to least likely: EITLORABNDUWMVCQFS?Z Average opponent rack is approximately 1.5 points WORSE than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'B' 'C' 'D' 'E' 'F' 1x: 16.4% 1x: 16.1% 1x: 8.8% 1x: 15.6% 1x: 34.6% 1x: 7.8% 2x: 0.5% 2x: 0.5% 2x: 0.5% 2x: 3.5% 'I' 'L' 'M' 'N' 'O' 'Q' 1x: 27.2% 1x: 23.2% 1x: 9.0% 1x: 16.0% 1x: 19.6% 1x: 8.5% 2x: 2.7% 2x: 1.3% 2x: 0.5% 2x: 1.0% 3x: 0.1% 3x: 0.0% 3x: 0.0% 'R' 'S' 'T' 'U' 'V' 'W' 1x: 16.4% 1x: 6.3% 1x: 23.6% 1x: 13.2% 1x: 9.0% 1x: 10.9% 2x: 0.5% 2x: 1.3% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 0.3% 'Z' '?' 1x: 0.2% 1x: 4.7% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 13 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:..AHA..:..# 1 2 .*VILDNEsS...*. 2 3 ..*...:.PAR.*.. 3 4 :..*...:ONO*..: 4 5 ....*...UTU.... 5 6 .$...$..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.:...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE...$...$. 10 11 SARGE.....*.... 11 12 C..I...:...*..: 12 13 RE*N..:.:...*.. 13 14 AY.G.$...$...*. 14 15 ME.:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 222 DEEIOR? Elise 0.0.8 dev 256 Quackle 0.97 played: PAREO 3I 14 pts [DEIR?] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] 001. GOItERED# 14D 63 pts -6.51 / 59.9% / 64.4% (3020) 002. PERIODEd# I8 63 pts -12.04 / 55.9% / 58.6% (880) 003. EVO# C1 12 pts -12.31 / 55.8% / 57.3% (880) 004. PEROxIDE I8 62 pts -13.45 / 55.7% / 59.8% (960) 005. VIE C2 12 pts -14.23 / 54.5% / 56.1% (160) PLAYED 006. PAREO 3I 14 pts -14.51 / 54.0% / 57.8% (480) 007. PROtEIDE I8 62 pts -15.40 / 54.0% / 57.3% (480) 008. OI 3D 6 pts -12.76 / 53.4% / 55.6% (160) 009. OI 3E 7 pts -15.04 / 53.3% / 53.4% (160) 010. PARDIE 3I 18 pts -16.46 / 53.2% / 56.6% (160) 011. OE 1D 8 pts -16.51 / 53.1% / 57.6% (160) 012. PERIDOtE# I8 62 pts -16.49 / 52.7% / 53.9% (480) 013. OE 3F 10 pts -15.01 / 52.6% / 56.3% (160) 014. OI 3F 10 pts -14.32 / 51.9% / 55.9% (160) 015. VIDE C2 16 pts -18.44 / 51.6% / 53.4% (160) 016. REINED 13A 14 pts -22.64 / 51.5% / 49.9% (160) 017. REEN# 13A 8 pts -17.42 / 51.3% / 51.8% (160) 018. PARDI 3I 16 pts -18.98 / 51.1% / 51.6% (170) 019. DO F2 3 pts -19.24 / 51.0% / 53.9% (160) 020. PO# I8 5 pts -21.41 / 51.0% / 52.7% (160) --- 60 different candidate moves simulated / 13990 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 5.87 (0.84 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 1.07 (0.18 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 13 / rack leave inference data Known played 'eye' Significantly more likely than chance: AEIRS More likely than chance: AEIORSU Less likely than chance: BCDFLMNQTVWZ Much less likely than chance: BWZ Most likely to least likely: EIAOTUNRSLDCMBQFVZW Average opponent rack is approximately 2.5 points WORSE than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'B' 'C' 'D' 'E' 'F' 1x: 40.4% 1x: 4.8% 1x: 8.3% 1x: 8.6% 1x: 73.7% 1x: 3.5% 2x: 2.6% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 12.9% 3x: 0.6% 'I' 'L' 'M' 'N' 'O' 'Q' 1x: 57.9% 1x: 14.5% 1x: 7.0% 1x: 19.6% 1x: 32.9% 1x: 4.8% 2x: 14.6% 2x: 0.3% 2x: 0.9% 2x: 2.6% 3x: 1.3% 4x: 0.1% 'R' 'S' 'T' 'U' 'V' 'W' 1x: 18.0% 1x: 17.4% 1x: 23.5% 1x: 21.1% 1x: 2.9% 1x: 1.2% 2x: 0.7% 2x: 1.3% 2x: 0.1% 'Z' 1x: 1.6% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 14 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:..AHA..:..# 1 2 .*VILDNEsS...*. 2 3 ..*...:.PAREO.. 3 4 :..*...:ONO*..: 4 5 ....*...UTU.... 5 6 .$...$..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.:...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE...$...$. 10 11 SARGE.....*.... 11 12 C..I...:...*..: 12 13 RE*N..:.:...*.. 13 14 AY.G.$...$...*. 14 15 ME.:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 236 Elise 0.0.8 dev 256 BDEINNO Elise 0.0.8 dev played: IONONE 4H 20 pts [BDNO] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] 001. BINDI D1 22 pts -4.03 / 59.8% / 64.8% (1610) 002. BIND 2L 20 pts -9.44 / 57.5% / 63.8% (800) 003. NIB 2L 14 pts -9.25 / 57.4% / 61.9% (560) 004. BIEN# D1 18 pts -10.63 / 57.4% / 62.7% (240) 005. NIED# 3D 20 pts -10.30 / 57.2% / 60.1% (480) 006. BLIND E1 16 pts -10.09 / 57.0% / 61.1% (160) 007. BLINNED# E1 20 pts -9.06 / 56.9% / 63.1% (480) 008. BIND D1 20 pts -8.39 / 56.6% / 59.3% (160) 009. BIDON# D1 22 pts -8.51 / 56.1% / 60.8% (480) 010. VINO C2 14 pts -9.74 / 56.1% / 59.3% (480) 011. BLONDE E1 18 pts -9.06 / 56.0% / 58.9% (480) 012. BINNED D1 24 pts -9.26 / 55.6% / 61.3% (160) 013. VINED C2 18 pts -13.68 / 54.7% / 57.4% (160) 014. VENIN C2 16 pts -13.78 / 54.6% / 54.1% (160) 015. NOB 2L 14 pts -14.73 / 54.3% / 55.9% (160) 016. BOND 2L 20 pts -14.64 / 54.1% / 56.8% (480) 017. BLEND E1 16 pts -12.91 / 53.9% / 58.2% (240) 018. BI 2L 10 pts -17.09 / 53.3% / 55.8% (200) 019. RENNIN 13A 12 pts -13.56 / 53.1% / 58.3% (160) PLAYED 020. IONONE 4H 20 pts -9.67 / 53.1% / 56.3% (160) --- 75 different candidate moves simulated / 13450 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 5.87 (0.84 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 7.81 (1.12 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 14 / rack leave inference data Known played 'eo' Significantly more likely than chance: AENRS? More likely than chance: AEINORST? Less likely than chance: BCDFLMQUVWZ Much less likely than chance: BFMQVWZ Most likely to least likely: EIATRSNO?LDUCMQBVFWZ Average opponent rack is approximately 12.8 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'B' 'C' 'D' 'E' 'F' 1x: 56.4% 1x: 1.3% 1x: 6.1% 1x: 13.2% 1x: 98.6% 1x: 0.4% 2x: 0.8% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 17.9% 3x: 1.1% 4x: 0.1% 'I' 'L' 'M' 'N' 'O' 'Q' 1x: 58.4% 1x: 16.8% 1x: 3.3% 1x: 34.5% 1x: 30.6% 1x: 2.6% 2x: 1.8% 2x: 0.1% 2x: 1.4% 3x: 0.7% 4x: 0.2% 'R' 'S' 'T' 'U' 'V' 'W' 1x: 39.3% 1x: 38.1% 1x: 44.5% 1x: 8.8% 1x: 0.7% 1x: 0.1% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 0.5% 2x: 0.1% 'Z' '?' 1x: 0.1% 1x: 21.2% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..:..AHA..:..# 1 2 .*VILDNEsS...*. 2 3 ..*...:.PAREO.. 3 4 :..*...IONONE.: 4 5 ....*...UTU.... 5 6 .$...$..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.:...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE...$...$. 10 11 SARGE.....*.... 11 12 C..I...:...*..: 12 13 RE*N..:.:...*.. 13 14 AY.G.$...$...*. 14 15 ME.:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 236 DEILQR? Elise 0.0.8 dev 276 Quackle 0.97 played: QI D1 21 pts [DEILR?] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. QI D1 21 pts -10.32 / 56.4% / 59.2% (1550) 002. VRIL# C2 14 pts -35.86 / 40.0% / 36.6% (480) 003. LIQuID D1 32 pts -32.64 / 40.0% / 36.3% (960) 004. DIRL D1 14 pts -42.63 / 38.1% / 32.2% (160) 005. (Keep DEIR?) 1A 0 pts -36.95 / 38.0% / 34.2% (530) 006. DREIDL F2 12 pts -40.79 / 37.9% / 34.6% (480) 007. DIEL D1 14 pts -39.73 / 37.2% / 33.5% (480) 008. MEL 15A 5 pts -40.14 / 36.9% / 33.3% (480) 009. ID 12D 12 pts -39.98 / 36.1% / 33.8% (160) 010. VILD# C2 16 pts -40.54 / 36.0% / 31.9% (160) 011. VILDE# C2 18 pts -40.17 / 35.6% / 33.9% (160) 012. LI D1 3 pts -40.86 / 35.3% / 30.9% (160) 013. RID 2M 11 pts -42.51 / 35.0% / 34.4% (160) 014. (Keep EIR?) 1A 0 pts -40.08 / 34.9% / 29.7% (160) 015. VIRL C2 14 pts -43.89 / 34.4% / 30.4% (160) 016. VIRED# C2 18 pts -44.47 / 34.3% / 30.0% (160) 017. RILE D1 10 pts -47.15 / 33.0% / 29.8% (160) 018. VELD C2 16 pts -45.13 / 32.8% / 24.9% (160) 019. QIs D1 21 pts -42.51 / 32.5% / 28.1% (160) 020. VERD# C2 16 pts -46.74 / 32.4% / 30.1% (160) --- 70 different candidate moves simulated / 11920 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 5.87 (0.73 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 7.81 (1.12 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 15 / rack leave inference data Known played 'ine' Significantly more likely than chance: AEINRS More likely than chance: AEINRS Less likely than chance: BCDFLMOTUVWZ Much less likely than chance: BFVWZ Most likely to least likely: EINRASUTLODCMBVFZW Average opponent rack is approximately 0.4 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'B' 'C' 'D' 'E' 'F' 1x: 28.5% 1x: 2.2% 1x: 6.0% 1x: 8.5% 1x: 78.0% 1x: 1.2% 2x: 0.7% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 8.9% 3x: 0.7% 'I' 'L' 'M' 'N' 'O' 'R' 1x: 72.5% 1x: 19.1% 1x: 3.1% 1x: 37.2% 1x: 18.8% 1x: 31.6% 2x: 11.4% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 2.2% 2x: 1.0% 3x: 1.9% 'S' 'T' 'U' 'V' 'W' 'Z' 1x: 21.5% 1x: 19.3% 1x: 21.0% 1x: 1.7% 1x: 0.2% 1x: 1.2% 2x: 1.0% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 16 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..Q..AHA..:..# 1 2 .*VILDNEsS...*. 2 3 ..*...:.PAREO.. 3 4 :..*...IONONE.: 4 5 ....*...UTU.... 5 6 .$...$..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.:...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE...$...$. 10 11 SARGE.....*.... 11 12 C..I...:...*..: 12 13 RE*N..:.:...*.. 13 14 AY.G.$...$...*. 14 15 ME.:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 257 Elise 0.0.8 dev 276 BDINOTW Elise 0.0.8 dev played: TWO 2L 21 pts [BDIN] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] 001. LOWND# E2 18 pts -11.28 / 55.0% / 59.0% (2480) PLAYED 002. TWO 2L 21 pts -12.22 / 54.6% / 59.4% (1780) 003. VINT# C2 14 pts -13.42 / 54.1% / 57.4% (2080) 004. VOW C2 18 pts -16.74 / 53.2% / 55.9% (480) 005. TWIN 2L 23 pts -15.80 / 53.1% / 60.8% (2270) 006. ID 3F 14 pts -19.86 / 51.4% / 53.9% (160) 007. LOWT# E2 14 pts -18.96 / 50.9% / 57.6% (160) 008. WIN 2M 18 pts -22.91 / 50.7% / 56.4% (240) 009. WIT 2M 18 pts -20.79 / 50.5% / 54.8% (480) 010. LOWN E2 14 pts -18.66 / 50.3% / 54.9% (160) 011. VOID C2 16 pts -20.50 / 50.1% / 53.1% (240) 012. TOW 2M 15 pts -25.53 / 49.9% / 50.4% (160) 013. IT 3F 10 pts -21.58 / 49.9% / 54.9% (160) 014. VID C2 14 pts -20.56 / 49.6% / 53.2% (480) 015. WOT 2M 18 pts -22.48 / 49.5% / 53.3% (480) 016. ID 12D 12 pts -22.02 / 49.4% / 51.4% (560) 017. TUTU 5H 6 pts -23.98 / 49.2% / 54.7% (160) 018. (Exchange all) 1A 0 pts -21.36 / 48.7% / 51.3% (160) 019. MEW 15A 8 pts -25.85 / 48.7% / 51.2% (160) 020. OD 3F 14 pts -23.41 / 48.6% / 57.4% (160) --- 61 different candidate moves simulated / 16630 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 5.87 (0.73 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 8.14 (1.02 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 16 / rack leave inference data Known played 'q' Significantly more likely than chance: ENORST More likely than chance: ACENORST? Less likely than chance: BDFILMUVWZ Much less likely than chance: UZ Most likely to least likely: EROTASNLID?CMVBFWZU Average opponent rack is approximately 14.5 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'B' 'C' 'D' 'E' 'F' 1x: 39.8% 1x: 11.0% 1x: 18.2% 1x: 31.8% 1x: 81.5% 1x: 7.2% 2x: 2.7% 2x: 2.0% 2x: 26.6% 3x: 2.0% 4x: 0.0% 'I' 'L' 'M' 'N' 'O' 'R' 1x: 33.7% 1x: 35.0% 1x: 14.3% 1x: 37.9% 1x: 46.4% 1x: 56.1% 2x: 2.3% 2x: 2.3% 2x: 6.1% 2x: 7.6% 3x: 0.1% 3x: 0.0% 'S' 'T' 'U' 'V' 'W' 'Z' 1x: 38.3% 1x: 45.9% 1x: 2.3% 1x: 11.8% 1x: 6.2% 1x: 3.3% 2x: 5.9% '?' 1x: 21.7% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 17 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..Q..AHA..:..# 1 2 .*VILDNEsS.TWO. 2 3 ..*...:.PAREO.. 3 4 :..*...IONONE.: 4 5 ....*...UTU.... 5 6 .$...$..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.:...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE...$...$. 10 11 SARGE.....*.... 11 12 C..I...:...*..: 12 13 RE*N..:.:...*.. 13 14 AY.G.$...$...*. 14 15 ME.:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 257 DEIILR? Elise 0.0.8 dev 297 Quackle 0.97 played: VILD# C2 16 pts [EIR?] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] 001. VID C2 14 pts -15.77 / 50.6% / 52.9% (3440) 002. ILL E1 14 pts -18.06 / 50.3% / 51.5% (2630) PLAYED 003. VILD# C2 16 pts -16.30 / 50.2% / 50.8% (3360) 004. ID 3F 14 pts -20.51 / 49.1% / 49.5% (240) 005. GRIDELIn# 14D 63 pts -13.27 / 48.1% / 48.9% (1280) 006. LI E2 2 pts -17.30 / 47.9% / 44.6% (640) 007. PERIDIaL I8 62 pts -14.83 / 47.8% / 48.7% (1680) 008. PIDdLIER# I8 62 pts -16.07 / 47.7% / 48.7% (960) 009. PIdDLIER# I8 62 pts -16.65 / 47.6% / 49.1% (880) 010. VIRILE C2 20 pts -24.23 / 47.5% / 44.1% (320) 011. VRIL# C2 14 pts -24.16 / 47.0% / 42.7% (240) 012. VILE C2 14 pts -24.29 / 45.8% / 42.4% (400) 013. REIN 13A 8 pts -26.23 / 45.5% / 44.8% (160) 014. DI# 1N 12 pts -22.09 / 45.3% / 46.8% (160) 015. VIER C2 14 pts -28.49 / 44.8% / 40.3% (160) 016. VIDE C2 16 pts -27.67 / 44.6% / 42.0% (160) 017. PIR# I8 6 pts -25.62 / 44.6% / 44.5% (160) 018. VIED C2 16 pts -27.81 / 44.5% / 39.8% (160) 019. IO# N1 2 pts -30.08 / 44.2% / 43.0% (240) 020. PI I8 5 pts -28.49 / 43.4% / 39.5% (160) --- 57 different candidate moves simulated / 21750 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 6.28 (0.70 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 8.14 (1.02 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 17 / rack leave inference data Known played 'two' Significantly more likely than chance: ARST More likely than chance: ACEINRST Less likely than chance: BDFLMOUVWZ Much less likely than chance: BFWZ Most likely to least likely: TEIARNLOUSDCVMBWFZ Average opponent rack is approximately 1.1 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'B' 'C' 'D' 'E' 'F' 1x: 35.7% 1x: 6.0% 1x: 13.6% 1x: 18.1% 1x: 44.0% 1x: 2.1% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 0.7% 2x: 1.7% 'I' 'L' 'M' 'N' 'O' 'R' 1x: 38.1% 1x: 21.7% 1x: 7.1% 1x: 28.6% 1x: 21.0% 1x: 31.7% 2x: 1.2% 2x: 0.5% 2x: 0.2% 2x: 0.5% 'S' 'T' 'U' 'V' 'W' 'Z' 1x: 18.6% 1x: 71.4% 1x: 20.0% 1x: 9.8% 1x: 2.9% 1x: 1.0% 2x: 2.6% 2x: 1.2% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 18 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..Q..AHA..:..# 1 2 .*VILDNEsS.TWO. 2 3 ..I...:.PAREO.. 3 4 :.L*...IONONE.: 4 5 ..D.*...UTU.... 5 6 .$...$..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.:...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE...$...$. 10 11 SARGE.....*.... 11 12 C..I...:...*..: 12 13 RE*N..:.:...*.. 13 14 AY.G.$...$...*. 14 15 ME.:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 273 Elise 0.0.8 dev 297 BBCDFIN Elise 0.0.8 dev played: BLIND 4B 16 pts [BCF] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] 001. (Exchange all) 1A 0 pts -8.13 / 56.4% / 63.9% (1060) PLAYED 002. BLIND 4B 16 pts -3.01 / 55.5% / 64.9% (2330) 003. BIFFY G5 20 pts -7.36 / 54.7% / 62.7% (1680) 004. FINI# 3B 21 pts -6.85 / 54.5% / 62.9% (2080) 005. DIN 3B 16 pts -11.77 / 53.2% / 56.3% (480) 006. FLIC 4B 18 pts -8.22 / 52.9% / 57.8% (880) 007. BIN 3B 17 pts -10.32 / 52.8% / 58.9% (790) 008. (Keep B) 1A 0 pts -13.57 / 52.1% / 55.1% (480) 009. FIN 3B 18 pts -12.78 / 51.1% / 54.4% (480) 010. BI 1N 16 pts -14.57 / 50.7% / 56.6% (160) 011. IN 3C 14 pts -18.38 / 49.9% / 52.6% (160) 012. (Keep IN) 1A 0 pts -18.75 / 49.5% / 55.5% (160) 013. IF 1N 17 pts -19.62 / 49.1% / 56.1% (160) 014. LIND# 4C 10 pts -24.16 / 47.7% / 49.3% (160) 015. LIND# E2 10 pts -16.78 / 47.5% / 50.5% (160) 016. BLIN 4B 12 pts -17.85 / 47.2% / 54.5% (160) 017. ID 1N 11 pts -21.58 / 46.7% / 52.6% (160) 018. NIFFY# G5 18 pts -19.30 / 46.7% / 46.7% (160) 019. GIB 14D 12 pts -21.03 / 45.9% / 40.3% (160) 020. DI# 3B 3 pts -30.12 / 45.4% / 47.4% (160) --- 51 different candidate moves simulated / 15060 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 6.28 (0.70 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 8.99 (1.00 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 18 / rack leave inference data Known played 'ild' Significantly more likely than chance: DINRST More likely than chance: DINRST Less likely than chance: AELMOUVWZ? Much less likely than chance: VWZ Most likely to least likely: ITRNSELDA?OUMVZ[W] Average opponent rack is approximately 10 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'D' 'E' 'I' 'L' 'M' 1x: 14.8% 1x: 21.3% 1x: 33.5% 1x: 66.5% 1x: 23.2% 1x: 3.9% 2x: 4.5% 3x: 2.6% 'N' 'O' 'R' 'S' 'T' 'U' 1x: 44.5% 1x: 7.7% 1x: 56.1% 1x: 43.2% 1x: 58.7% 1x: 7.1% 2x: 1.3% 'V' 'Z' '?' 1x: 0.6% 1x: 0.6% 1x: 9.7% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 19 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..Q..AHA..:..# 1 2 .*VILDNEsS.TWO. 2 3 ..I...:.PAREO.. 3 4 :BLIND.IONONE.: 4 5 ..D.*...UTU.... 5 6 .$...$..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.:...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE...$...$. 10 11 SARGE.....*.... 11 12 C..I...:...*..: 12 13 RE*N..:.:...*.. 13 14 AY.G.$...$...*. 14 15 ME.:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 273 EIIORU? Elise 0.0.8 dev 313 Quackle 0.97 played: EUOI# 6C 15 pts [IR?] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. EUOI# 6C 15 pts -10.65 / 50.1% / 44.5% (1810) 002. DUI F4 6 pts -13.02 / 46.6% / 40.2% (1040) 003. OI 3F 12 pts -14.61 / 46.3% / 38.9% (720) 004. EURO 6C 15 pts -19.90 / 45.7% / 35.9% (560) 005. IO# 3E 10 pts -17.15 / 44.9% / 33.8% (160) 006. PIU I8 6 pts -13.21 / 44.8% / 26.9% (480) 007. REI 6B 14 pts -27.72 / 44.0% / 32.8% (160) 008. OI 5E 11 pts -20.80 / 43.8% / 26.8% (160) 009. REIN 13A 8 pts -21.82 / 43.7% / 33.8% (160) 010. ANI G1 4 pts -25.62 / 42.9% / 33.9% (160) 011. PUIR# I8 7 pts -15.26 / 42.6% / 13.7% (480) 012. GIO# 14D 6 pts -21.92 / 42.0% / 10.4% (160) 013. LINIER E2 12 pts -29.76 / 40.8% / 30.0% (160) 014. BIO B4 10 pts -27.41 / 40.7% / 15.6% (160) 015. POI I8 6 pts -18.72 / 40.4% / 14.7% (160) 016. PI I8 5 pts -24.21 / 39.9% / 15.3% (160) 017. OU# 1N 8 pts -22.27 / 39.2% / 24.0% (160) 018. OU# E13 7 pts -23.21 / 39.1% / 26.7% (160) 019. OI E13 7 pts -24.67 / 39.0% / 19.5% (160) 020. LUNIER E2 12 pts -27.74 / 38.0% / 26.5% (160) --- 66 different candidate moves simulated / 12390 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 6.28 (0.63 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 8.99 (1.00 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 19 / rack leave inference data Known played 'bind' Significantly more likely than chance: BCDINRT More likely than chance: BCDIMNRT Less likely than chance: AEFLOSUVWZ Much less likely than chance: ES Most likely to least likely: TDNBICLRMVAFWZUOSE Average opponent rack is approximately 2.3 points WORSE than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'B' 'C' 'D' 'E' 'F' 1x: 12.0% 1x: 25.1% 1x: 21.7% 1x: 36.4% 1x: 1.6% 1x: 10.7% 'I' 'L' 'M' 'N' 'O' 'R' 1x: 22.3% 1x: 20.2% 1x: 15.4% 1x: 28.3% 1x: 4.2% 1x: 17.3% 2x: 0.8% 'S' 'T' 'U' 'V' 'W' 'Z' 1x: 2.6% 1x: 37.4% 1x: 7.1% 1x: 12.3% 1x: 10.7% 1x: 10.5% 2x: 3.4% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 20 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..Q..AHA..:..# 1 2 .*VILDNEsS.TWO. 2 3 ..I...:.PAREO.. 3 4 :BLIND.IONONE.: 4 5 ..D.*...UTU.... 5 6 .$EUOI..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.:...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE...$...$. 10 11 SARGE.....*.... 11 12 C..I...:...*..: 12 13 RE*N..:.:...*.. 13 14 AY.G.$...$...*. 14 15 ME.:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 288 Elise 0.0.8 dev 313 BCFLLMN Elise 0.0.8 dev played: (Exchange all) 1A 0 pts Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. (Exchange all) 1A 0 pts +7.91 / 59.1% / 79.5% (1340) 002. (Keep N) 1A 0 pts +5.48 / 56.8% / 76.5% (1280) 003. MEM 15A 7 pts -32.66 / 33.3% / 8.3% (560) 004. MO N1 4 pts -36.17 / 33.1% / 5.4% (480) 005. ON E6 2 pts -35.78 / 32.8% / 5.5% (160) 006. LO N1 2 pts -31.07 / 32.6% / 11.4% (160) 007. MEL 15A 5 pts -35.05 / 31.5% / 10.2% (560) 008. BO H7 4 pts -39.83 / 31.4% / 1.6% (160) 009. IN F6 2 pts -33.76 / 30.9% / 4.8% (170) 010. OB# E6 4 pts -36.81 / 30.8% / 4.5% (160) 011. MEN 15A 5 pts -34.45 / 30.6% / 1.4% (160) 012. BO N1 4 pts -37.84 / 30.1% / 0.0% (480) 013. ANN# G1 4 pts -37.94 / 30.0% / 0.0% (160) 014. MO H7 4 pts -39.18 / 29.9% / 0.5% (160) 015. IF F6 5 pts -37.96 / 29.5% / 6.8% (160) 016. NO H7 2 pts -37.11 / 29.5% / 1.6% (160) 017. OM E6 4 pts -42.66 / 28.6% / 2.1% (160) 018. OF E6 5 pts -36.56 / 27.7% / 4.7% (160) 019. LO H7 2 pts -42.48 / 27.5% / 0.0% (480) 020. NO N1 2 pts -37.11 / 27.2% / 0.0% (160) --- 21 different candidate moves simulated / 7430 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 6.28 (0.63 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 8.99 (0.90 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 20 / rack leave inference data Known played 'euoi' Significantly more likely than chance: EIOU More likely than chance: AEIOU? Less likely than chance: DRSTVWZ Much less likely than chance: Z Most likely to least likely: EIARUTO?SDWV[Z] Average opponent rack is approximately 8.8 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'D' 'E' 'I' 'O' 'R' 1x: 34.0% 1x: 11.5% 1x: 61.1% 1x: 44.0% 1x: 21.2% 1x: 24.8% 2x: 1.5% 2x: 9.8% 2x: 3.4% 3x: 0.2% 'S' 'T' 'U' 'V' 'W' '?' 1x: 13.2% 1x: 23.1% 1x: 23.3% 1x: 4.5% 1x: 6.8% 1x: 17.5% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 21 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..Q..AHA..:..# 1 2 .*VILDNEsS.TWO. 2 3 ..I...:.PAREO.. 3 4 :BLIND.IONONE.: 4 5 ..D.*...UTU.... 5 6 .$EUOI..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.:...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE...$...$. 10 11 SARGE.....*.... 11 12 C..I...:...*..: 12 13 RE*N..:.:...*.. 13 14 AY.G.$...$...*. 14 15 ME.:...#...:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 288 EIIORT? Elise 0.0.8 dev 313 Quackle 0.97 played: POInTIER I8 61 pts Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] 001. IO# 1N 8 pts +12.50 / 64.9% / 100.0% (4480) 002. IT 1N 8 pts +12.07 / 64.5% / 100.0% (2160) 003. OI 1N 8 pts +12.61 / 64.5% / 100.0% (2560) 004. NOTIfIER 13D 59 pts +15.61 / 64.4% / 100.0% (2240) 005. REINTER 13A 16 pts +12.53 / 63.6% / 100.0% (1120) 006. TI 1N 8 pts +12.19 / 63.2% / 100.0% (720) 007. GIT 14D 6 pts +12.42 / 62.8% / 100.0% (2550) 008. OI E13 7 pts +10.35 / 62.8% / 99.9% (320) 009. ANI G1 4 pts +11.22 / 62.4% / 99.8% (240) 010. PI I8 5 pts +10.73 / 62.2% / 99.8% (320) 011. OI E14 5 pts +7.05 / 61.8% / 99.7% (240) 012. OI 3F 12 pts +9.96 / 61.7% / 99.9% (480) 013. IO# N1 2 pts +11.19 / 61.7% / 99.9% (560) 014. REIN 13A 8 pts +11.55 / 61.6% / 100.0% (960) 015. IT 3F 12 pts +11.14 / 60.9% / 98.4% (240) 016. IT 7E 6 pts +11.57 / 60.8% / 98.5% (160) 017. PERIOTIc I8 61 pts +9.69 / 60.5% / 99.8% (560) 018. TID# 5A 8 pts +9.63 / 59.4% / 99.9% (400) 019. OI E6 2 pts +5.17 / 59.3% / 97.8% (160) PLAYED 021. POInTIER I8 61 pts +11.86 / 58.8% / 99.9% (480) --- 49 different candidate moves simulated / 26230 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 12.44 (1.13 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 8.99 (0.90 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 21 / rack leave inference data Known opponent exchange Significantly more likely than chance: S More likely than chance: S Average opponent rack is approximately 1 points WORSE than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'S' 1x: 58.3% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 22 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..Q..AHA..:..# 1 2 .*VILDNEsS.TWO. 2 3 ..I...:.PAREO.. 3 4 :BLIND.IONONE.: 4 5 ..D.*...UTU.... 5 6 .$EUOI..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.O...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE..I$...$. 10 11 SARGE...n.*.... 11 12 C..I...:T..*..: 12 13 RE*N..:.I...*.. 13 14 AY.G.$..E$...*. 14 15 ME.:...#R..:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 349 Elise 0.0.8 dev 313 ADEESVZ Elise 0.0.8 dev played: VERD# 15G 24 pts [AESZ] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] PLAYED 001. VERD# 15G 24 pts +39.06 / 89.4% / 100.0% (3280) 002. DERV# 15G 24 pts +36.79 / 89.3% / 99.9% (2080) 003. DEV 14H 15 pts +31.30 / 85.1% / 100.0% (2170) 004. DRAVE 15H 30 pts +27.90 / 83.7% / 99.0% (480) 005. ZERDA# 15G 45 pts +21.91 / 80.4% / 99.0% (480) 006. VID 10H 11 pts +24.85 / 78.5% / 97.8% (240) 007. VERSED 15G 36 pts +17.23 / 78.1% / 98.9% (160) 008. VEE 14G 6 pts +19.83 / 77.6% / 97.7% (160) 009. DEEV# 14G 16 pts +26.78 / 77.5% / 99.8% (480) 010. DIV# 10H 15 pts +24.39 / 77.1% / 98.9% (160) 011. SERVED 15G 36 pts +16.11 / 76.9% / 97.7% (160) 012. DEEV# 14H 10 pts +26.19 / 76.0% / 51.3% (160) 013. DERVS# 15G 27 pts +17.30 / 75.4% / 97.7% (160) 014. ZA 1N 44 pts +23.92 / 75.4% / 95.6% (560) 015. VID 13H 7 pts +20.69 / 74.6% / 98.8% (160) 016. VEE 14H 8 pts +19.99 / 74.0% / 99.5% (160) 017. DE H14 18 pts +16.05 / 73.6% / 99.5% (160) 018. DAZER# 15E 45 pts +18.07 / 73.6% / 98.2% (480) 019. VAR 15G 18 pts +23.11 / 72.0% / 98.4% (160) 020. EVADES 14I 36 pts +12.37 / 70.9% / 94.3% (160) --- 194 different candidate moves simulated / 26890 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 12.44 (1.13 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 8.99 (0.82 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 22 / rack leave inference data Can't guess leave distribution -- last move was a bingo! ================================================================================ Move 23 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..Q..AHA..:..# 1 2 .*VILDNEsS.TWO. 2 3 ..I...:.PAREO.. 3 4 :BLIND.IONONE.: 4 5 ..D.*...UTU.... 5 6 .$EUOI..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.O...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE..I$...$. 10 11 SARGE...n.*.... 11 12 C..I...:T..*..: 12 13 RE*N..:.I...*.. 13 14 AY.G.$..E$...*. 14 15 ME.:..VERD.:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 349 ACFMNRT Elise 0.0.8 dev 337 Quackle 0.97 played: INFARCT 13I 24 pts [M] Simulation (5 ply) [mean spread / mean winprob / median winprob (# sim)] 001. INFRACT 13I 24 pts +12.58 / 76.4% / 76.4% (peg) PLAYED 002. INFARCT 13I 24 pts +8.03 / 69.4% / 69.4% (peg) 003. INFARCT 10I 20 pts -2.14 / 63.9% / 63.9% (peg) 004. INFRACT 10I 20 pts +1.47 / 61.1% / 61.1% (peg) 005. IF 10I 13 pts -3.64 / 42.7% / 0.0% (2080) 006. ME H14 8 pts -15.81 / 36.2% / 0.0% (2160) 007. MIC 10H 13 pts +15.03 / 36.1% / 36.1% (peg) 008. OF E6 5 pts -13.96 / 33.6% / 0.0% (160) 009. FIRMAN 10H 13 pts -0.06 / 33.3% / 33.3% (peg) 010. MEM 15A 7 pts -19.48 / 32.9% / 0.0% (560) 011. IN 10I 4 pts -15.85 / 31.8% / 0.0% (440) 012. MO H7 4 pts -18.40 / 31.7% / 0.0% (160) 013. NE 14H 4 pts -19.62 / 31.6% / 0.0% (160) 014. MO N1 4 pts -22.91 / 31.1% / 0.0% (320) 015. OM E6 4 pts -19.51 / 30.9% / 0.0% (240) 016. TI 10H 2 pts -17.69 / 30.4% / 0.0% (320) 017. FE 14H 10 pts -14.58 / 30.2% / 0.0% (480) 018. MI 10H 4 pts -21.11 / 29.9% / 0.0% (160) 019. IF 13I 5 pts -16.23 / 29.9% / 0.0% (320) 020. TO N1 2 pts -14.95 / 29.5% / 0.0% (240) --- 184 different candidate moves simulated / 13190 simulations performed --- Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 19.38 (1.62 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 8.99 (0.82 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 23 / rack leave inference data Known played 'ved' Significantly more likely than chance: ABE More likely than chance: ABELS Less likely than chance: UWZ Much less likely than chance: W Most likely to least likely: EBLASUZ[W] Average opponent rack is approximately 2.6 points BETTER than average. Estimated probability of rack leave containing tile: 'A' 'B' 'E' 'L' 'S' 'U' 1x: 62.5% 1x: 75.0% 1x: 100.0% 1x: 75.0% 1x: 50.0% 1x: 25.0% 'Z' 1x: 12.5% ("1x" indicates probability of one or more of the specified tile, not the probability of exactly one such tile) ================================================================================ Move 24 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..Q..AHA..:..# 1 2 .*VILDNEsS.TWO. 2 3 ..I...:.PAREO.. 3 4 :BLIND.IONONE.: 4 5 ..D.*...UTU.... 5 6 .$EUOI..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.O...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE..I$...$. 10 11 SARGE...n.*.... 11 12 C..I...:T..*..: 12 13 RE*N..:.INFARCT 13 14 AY.G.$..E$...*. 14 15 ME.:..VERD.:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 373 Elise 0.0.8 dev 337 ABELSUZ Elise 0.0.8 dev played: ZA 12L 46 pts [BELSU] Endgame 001. BUSTLE O10 27 pts 100.0% (eg) PLAYED 002. ZA 12L 46 pts 100.0% (eg) 003. ZA 1N 44 pts 100.0% (eg) 004. CUZ# N13 28 pts 100.0% (eg) 005. BIZ 10H 34 pts 0.0% (eg) 006. ZETAS O11 45 pts 0.0% (eg) 007. SIZABLE 10H 40 pts 0.0% (eg) 008. BIZE 10H 35 pts 0.0% (eg) 009. SAZ# N4 39 pts 0.0% (eg) 010. ABLAZE L10 36 pts 0.0% (eg) Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 19.38 (1.62 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 8.99 (0.75 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 24 / rack leave inference data No tile guess. ================================================================================ Move 25 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..Q..AHA..:..# 1 2 .*VILDNEsS.TWO. 2 3 ..I...:.PAREO.. 3 4 :BLIND.IONONE.: 4 5 ..D.*...UTU.... 5 6 .$EUOI..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.O...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE..I$...$. 10 11 SARGE...n.*.... 11 12 C..I...:T..ZA.: 12 13 RE*N..:.INFARCT 13 14 AY.G.$..E$...*. 14 15 ME.:..VERD.:..# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 373 LMW Elise 0.0.8 dev 383 Quackle 0.97 played: CWM N13 20 pts [L] Endgame PLAYED 001. CWM N13 20 pts 0.0% (eg) 002. WARM M11 9 pts 0.0% (eg) 003. WE 14H 10 pts 0.0% (eg) 004. MEW 15A 8 pts 0.0% (eg) 005. MIL 10H 7 pts 0.0% (eg) 006. WAR M11 6 pts 0.0% (eg) 007. ME 14H 8 pts 0.0% (eg) 008. MARL M11 6 pts 0.0% (eg) 009. OW E6 5 pts 0.0% (eg) 010. WO H7 5 pts 0.0% (eg) 011. WO N1 5 pts 0.0% (eg) 012. MEM 15A 7 pts 0.0% (eg) 013. MAR M11 5 pts 0.0% (eg) 014. ARM M12 5 pts 0.0% (eg) 015. MI 10H 4 pts 0.0% (eg) 016. OM E6 4 pts 0.0% (eg) 017. MO H7 4 pts 0.0% (eg) 018. MO N1 4 pts 0.0% (eg) 019. MEL 15A 5 pts 0.0% (eg) 020. LAR M11 3 pts 0.0% (eg) Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 19.38 (1.49 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 8.99 (0.75 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 25 / rack leave inference data No tile guess. ================================================================================ Move 26 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO 1 #..Q..AHA..:..# 1 2 .*VILDNEsS.TWO. 2 3 ..I...:.PAREO.. 3 4 :BLIND.IONONE.: 4 5 ..D.*...UTU.... 5 6 .$EUOI..TIX..$. 6 7 ..:...:.:R..:.. 7 8 #..H..FOPS.:..# 8 9 ..JAKEY.O...:.. 9 10 .TOGAE..I$...$. 10 11 SARGE...n.*.... 11 12 C..I...:T..ZA.: 12 13 RE*N..:.INFARCT 13 14 AY.G.$..E$...W. 14 15 ME.:..VERD.:.M# 15 ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO Quackle 0.97 393 Elise 0.0.8 dev 383 BELSU Elise 0.0.8 dev played: SUBLET O8 27 pts Endgame PLAYED 001. SUBLET O8 27 pts 100.0% (eg) 002. BLUEST O8 27 pts 100.0% (eg) 003. BUMS 15L 33 pts 100.0% (eg) 004. ELMS 15L 21 pts 0.0% (eg) 005. BUTE O11 12 pts 0.0% (eg) 006. BOS N1 13 pts 0.0% (eg) 007. BILES 10H 9 pts 0.0% (eg) 008. GUB# 14D 12 pts 0.0% (eg) 009. BUS 11M 10 pts 0.0% (eg) 010. BEL 11M 10 pts 0.0% (eg) 011. BES 11M 10 pts 0.0% (eg) 012. SLUE O2 12 pts 0.0% (eg) 013. BUTE 12G 9 pts 0.0% (eg) 014. LIB 10H 11 pts 0.0% (eg) 015. BUM 15L 10 pts 0.0% (eg) 016. SEL N4 12 pts 0.0% (eg) 017. SEL O2 11 pts 0.0% (eg) 018. ES O1 13 pts 0.0% (eg) 019. SUE O2 11 pts 0.0% (eg) 020. BE 11M 9 pts 0.0% (eg) Win percentage given up: Quackle 0.97 19.38 (1.49 avg.) Elise 0.0.8 dev 8.99 (0.69 avg.) ================================================================================ Move 26 / rack leave inference data No tile guess. ================================================================================